You Shall Not Pass

The week ended on March 6, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past week are

 

1. You Shall Not Pass: In the past week, there was one voice that broke through all the horrific sounds of bombings and sirens. A lone voice that was not broadcast on Trump’s Truth Social or any mass high tech platforms. A lone voice from a frail handicapped 86 years old man, spoke by his action before he was killed and the world heard aloud in all her different languages “YOU SHALL NOT PASS”. (Fig. 1)

For people who are only accustomed to equations that involved immediate cause and effect on the order of Newton Third Law of Motion, they may have missed the most important metaphysical vector in the Zionist/Iranian conflict. The metaphysical principle is captured in John 12:24 “Most assuredly, I say to you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the ground and dies, it remains alone; but if it dies, it produces much grain.” (Fig. 2).

Does anyone think Trump and Natanyahu can understand this Metaphysical Principle when they are so full of themselves, when they cannot clearly enunciate consistently the reasons behind the preemptive aggression.

Carl von Clausewitz, said "war is the continuation of politics with other means,". This means the success of a military campaign is dependent on whether it achieves the desired political end-state, rather than simply destroying the enemy's armed forces. 

After the first week, Iran has not won but US/Isreal has clearly been defeated in round one in terms of their stated objectives.

(i) A Logistical Nightmare - In the first week Israel/US has suffered irreparably damages to its regional military assets in terms of radar systems, air bases and naval ports that shook the foundations of sustainability of future military campaigns. Students of Geo-politics should recall since the mid 90’s due to budget constraints US has abandoned all her supply Tender Vessels program and can no longer restock warships munitions midstream. Without a resupply base in the Middle East and European bases being declined as an attack platform, the nearest Naval Base is British Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. (Fig. 3).

The current configuration of air defense against incoming sorties for Abraham Lincoln is 288 interceptor missiles and incoming strike, at least two interceptors will be used, Assuming 60 Iranian strikes per day, munitions on board of the Carrier Strike Groups will be exhausted in 5 days of severe combat. Hence despite Hegseth’s bold statement of unlimited munitions in the US Military, the Abraham Lincoln has already retreated far away into the Indian Ocean from the firing range of Iranian missiles. As regards Diego Garcia, initially the British have withhold permission for US employment but after the RAF Akrotiri received an Iranian drone attack, the British finally allowed Diego Garcia air base for US employment but only for defensive purpose.

Logistically, a restricted access of Diego Garcia’s port facilities would mean US Military resupplies would have to move further to either Djibouti, French La Reunion or Singapore. This would mean a resupply turn around time be further extended from 21 days for Diego Garcia to 60 days for any of the 3 aforementioned bases. (Fig. 4).

Now how likely will permission be given to US to prolong an illegitimate war and consequent oil and gas supplies disaster. Can there really be a ground invasion  by US into Iran when Naval and air support to the US ground forces will disappear every 60 days for each 5 days availability.

There are few viable options available to the Empire, for the time being, US need to employ the long range B52 bombers directly from US mainland to keep up with some kind of attack momentum on Iran. The US maintains an inventory of approximately 65,000 of these 500 lbs bombs, and 10,000 each of the 1000 and 2000 lbs bombs with annual production of approximately 30,000 in total. What Sec Hegseth boasted about unlimited supplies was likely to be these unguided gravity bombs that had to be carried by Long Range Strategic Bombers in a 4 days turn around cycle from Louisiana with necessity of aerial refueling. (Fig. 5) 

What has not been plainly explained is Iran has also been equipped with Chinese HQ-9B anti-air missiles that can easily take down all incoming B52.

(ii) Acceleration of American Isolationism - As Iran exertss a stranglehold on energy flows to US allies and apply pressure against the economy of the Gulf states, we are already seeing US and Israel have to combat Iran strictly on their own strength. Billions of US$ investment in military hardware by the GCC have gone to ruins within one week in an unwanted war invited on their shores by US just to protect Israel. Their immediate reaction is a withdrawal from funding Trump Board of Peace and Sayonara to an alternative to UN to be run on US terms. Next in line is the THAAD System in Korea will be diverted to the war zone in the Middle East.  (Fig. 6).

Carney arrived in Australia and shook hands with Albanese for mutual self preservation. The impact of a global energy crisis, economic recession and disappointment with a US failure to maintain a uni-polar world order would mean nations even previously allied to US would need to pull funds out of USD Assets for emergencies at home. Total foreign portfolio investments in US as at December 2025 amounted to US$36..6 trillion. (Fig. 7).

Without the Iranian war and energy crisis,  the Fed already had to print $40 billion a month for liquidity support. I expect there will be a torrent of withdrawals which would easily exceed 5 times the current level of Fed printing. My friends please be forewarned and take precautionary measures.

(iii) Homeland Insecurity -  Trump had just fired Kristi Noem as Secretary for Homeland Security (Fig. 8)

and replaced by Senator Markwayne Mullin, a businessman/politician with no known skills and experience in the security domain.(Fig. 9).

 Against a background of the Iranian Clerics have just declared a jihad against US and Israel, it appears the appointment of a rookie in Homeland Security on increased risk of asymmetric homeland attacks is very ill advised. (Fig. 10)   

 

2. Preparation: Early this week my son called a family meeting to discuss how should our family prepare for a possible fuel crisis and the consequential supply shortages. Our family always have a tradition of a well stocked pantry and so do not see a need for immediate panic buying and we have avoided the USD for years. My expectation is there will be a short term panic because a majority has bought into the lies and propaganda of an invincible US Empire and there will be a rude awakening. The Iranians would not negotiate because there is no trust. The Russians will not negotiate for the same reason. What remains is unguided gravity bombs by US B52 against targeted strike by Iran to drive US out of Middle East. There would not be a US ground invasion and a new security architecture will eventually emerge. Hyperinflation will begin in 2026 due to relentless currency printing. My family will dust off old files and inventory lists to better stock essential supplies. We intend to orderly stock up once we get rid of non-essentials that have cluttered our lives.

Luke 21:34  "But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life, and that Day come on you unexpectedly. 35  For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. 36  Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man." 

 

Deal or No Deal

The fortnight ended on February 28, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past two weeks are:

1. Deal or No Deal: Has anyone been sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for a major war to erupt in the Middle East?  If they have been, then it was an awful waste of time and energy. All the movement and display of military assets was, as some analysts say, a Kabuki theatre. (Fig. 1).

Kabuki is a 400-year-old traditional Japanese performing art renowned for its highly stylized drama, elaborate costumes, and dramatic makeup (keshō). Performed exclusively by male actors—including those specializing in female roles (onnagata)—it combines dance, music, and mime to depict historical events and moral conflicts. On my January 31^st  2025 Blog, I listed 5 reasons why I think a US strike was unlikely and that the chips are stacked as a bluff. Shall we see what hands the opposing team holds? (Fig. 2).

What I asked Germini AI to draw is a suit called “Pretty without a Kicker” - a strong suit on the 4 cards revealed, but the hidden card was a spoiler.

(i) The Zionist Suit: After the 2025 12 day war, the Arab world understood that Israel, with a small land mass and dense population, could not sustain a full-scale missile retaliation by Iran. If I had read Natanyahu correctly, the urgency to finish Iran was with presumptions that (a) Trump is the last US President he can manipulate for a full-scale attack on Iran. (b) Natanyahu had gone all in with Mossad and CIA “agent provocateur” assets to destabilize Iran for a regime change. (c) Both Israel and US believed in an opinion poll funded by USAID and National Endowment for Democracy that 80% of the Iranian population would rise up in rebellion against an unstable theocratic government. The hope was chaos instigated by “agent provocateurs”  would cause the Iranian administration to crumble, weaken its defense and made easy a decapitation strike. 

In my opinion, the flaws in Natanyahu’s plan were (a) Had Natanyahu and his settler colonists backers truly followed the Old Testament, he would have known from Isaiah 13:17 that the Iranians could not be corrupted like the Venezuelans nor the Iraqis and shut down their defense to the barbarians. (Fig. 3)

and (b) That Geo-security concerns would prompt Iran to full Russian and Chinese support that not only neutralized CIA embedded Starlink communications but allowed total incapacitation  of the CIA and Mossad agents planted in situ in Iran.  

For Trump, he was put on the spot by Natanyahu because the 2025 bombing of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities was a failure despite Trump’s claim was a total annihilation. Any US involvement with a ME armed conflict would make a mockery of the US National Security Strategy released only December 4 2025, the “Donroe Doctrine”. (Fig. 4).

Insiders familiar with the war plan development leaked that Natanyahu threatened Trump that like it or not Israel would go alone if necessary and when faced with an Iranian retaliation, the Zionists backers in the US Senate, Congress and the Executive Branch would force Trump to intervene anyway. So Trump was reluctantly dragged into the conflict but conditional upon (a) the regime change destabilization effort would be effective and (b) the deployment of US military assets would only be auxiliary as a pressure tactic.

Reluctance by Trump was not without reasons because (i) The US Military Industrial Complex is deficient of a serge capacity in the event of a peers war. Capacity for standard onboard battleship air defence missiles, the SM-3 and SM-6 by Raytheon is only 600 per year.  Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has purposely leaked that depleted U.S. munitions stocks and limited allied support pose an acute risk to any Iran operation. (Fig. 5).

Iran with an arsenal of over 2000 missiles and thousands of battle hardened drones could totally deplete air defense for the two US Carrier Strike Groups within days. With a standard complement of around 300 anti air missiles per US Carrier Strike Group and it will take at least two interceptors for every incoming sortie, the odds are not in favor for the massive floating targets. For students who followed the truce between the Houthis and the US in May 2025, the memory is still fresh that the two US Carrier Strike Groups (Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Groups) could not even defeat the unsophisticated armed militias after 6 months. (ii) The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League Countries have denied use of their air base to launch an attack on Iran. (Fig. 6).

 The logistical nightmare is even with Jordan and Saudi Arabia cooperation, the flight distance from the Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan and Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia far exceeded the combat radius of F16, F22 and F35 and hence require midair refueling. (Fig. 7).

The refueling tankers are not stealth equipped and hence makes these fighter jets and bombers visible. F15 has a longer combat radius but is not a stealth fighter. Once West Asia airbases are off limits, the only available platforms to launch an air strike would be Israel and the two aircraft carriers. (Fig. 8).

The same flight path calculations apply and with a reduced efficiency. The USS Abraham Lincoln is a 36 years old craft with legacy jet takeoffs and landings whilst in theory the USS Gerald Ford is equipped with electric catapults but the catapults has not been functioning properly and can only launch F35. Gerald Ford’s runway is known to be too short for jet fighters like F15, F16 and F22s. Please note the narration above is all from open source and what would be the combined intelligence of Iran, Russia and China but every US airbase, equipment and movements tracked and measured.

(ii) The Iranian Suit: US sanctions against Iran has been in place since November 1979 for over 45 years. Despite numerous attempts using extreme pressures, like the 8 year Iraq and Iranian war, for regime change, Iran survived and developed a formidable attack arsenal of home grown drones and missiles on minimum resources. Iran like China is an ancient civilization state of Medo-Persian origin from BC550 and with it deep human intelligence, culture and conviction. The 12 day war in 2025 has proved modern expensive military assets of US and Israel could not prevail over Iran. Whereas in 2025 Iranian hubris of self determination has prevented the government initially from seeking help from Russia and China, since that time, the existential threat has prompted Iran to open her doors fully to other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As China and Russia do not want escalation into WWIII or even a major regional war, the military assets provided were defensive in nature but will prove adequate but not excessive. It is believed that China had provided YLC-8B anti-stealth radar that are linked to the military grade BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) capable of spotting all US stealth aircraft up a radius of 700Km. Independent analysts like Alastair Crooke and Pepe Escobar both commented the Chinese had enabled the system to support existing Iranian missiles and the upgrade will pose a serious threat to US and Israeli offensive air assets. It is believed that Russia has provided S300 and S400 air defense systems. All these together will inflict unavoidable heavy casualties to any and all incoming aggressors.

The political objective for Iran/Russia/China is simple enough, Iran does not need to win a war with Israel and US but what has been been put in place will be more than enough to defeat a Natanyahu Prime Ministership and Trump Presidency.

(iii) Stop Press: Both US and China has called for an NEO (“Noncombatant Evacuation Operation) of its key ME Embassies and there is wide speculation that an attack will be launched this weekend. My Christian worldview is WWIII is close but not yet.  

A month ago I posted the following chart which showed a US Current Account Annual and Cumulative Deficit of $1.2 trillion and $31.5 trillion. (Fig. 9).

There is only one country in the world capable of funding the looming US Deficit and that country is China. In an absence of China to the party, US will need to gobble up a middle power country the size of Netherlands or Saudi Arabia each and every year. This explains the desperation and hunger of the US Empire and its attitude towards Venezuela, Denmark, Canada and Iran since Liberation Day. US has crossed the Rubicon and WWIII will happen. My prognosis is however, hyperinflation will come first and we have less than one year to prepare. Be forewarned and keep safe.

Isaiah 13:17  "Behold, I will stir up the Medes against them, Who will not regard silver; And as for gold, they will not delight in it. 18  Also their bows will dash the young men to pieces, And they will have no pity on the fruit of the womb; Their eye will not spare children. 19  And Babylon, the glory of kingdoms, The beauty of the Chaldeans' pride, Will be as when God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah. 20  It will never be inhabited, Nor will it be settled from generation to generation; Nor will the Arabian pitch tents there, Nor will the shepherds make their sheepfolds there. 21  But wild beasts of the desert will lie there, And their houses will be full of owls; Ostriches will dwell there, And wild goats will caper there.22  The hyenas will howl in their citadels, And jackals in their pleasant palaces. Her time is near to come, And her days will not be prolonged."