Truce

The week ended on May22, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

Truce: For the past fortnight, our focus has been on the Trump-Xi meeting, the Putin Xi meeting, and the impending confirmation of a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

(i) Trump-Xi Meeting - There was no formal joint communique issued after the meeting, but the event set the tone for Constructive Strategic Stability for the next 3 years while the two countries remained fierce competitors. Except for a hot kinetic war between US and China, the two nations will likely invoke every trick in the book and off the books to prevail. If readers recall that I interpreted the subtleties of flower arrangements across the conference table in the past, and below are my latest interpretations. (Fig. 1)

The flowers at the center is Pink Azaleas. Pink symbolizes gentleness, affection, and friendship. It softens the formal atmosphere and brings people closer. In traditional Chinese culture, the azalea represents "prosperity and good luck." In a business context, it is seen as an omen of "great fortune, smooth business, and thriving success."  Azaleas also carry meanings of "joy in love," "resilience and optimism," as well as seamless integration and the joint creation of a bright future. China has been trying continuously to convey to US that the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate US and China, and that there is much to gain through co-operation rather than rivalry. Now contrast this with the Crotons displayed in the May 2024 meeting between Blinken and Xi. (Fig. 2).

Subsequent to the meeting, Trump did take action to de-escalate two contentious issues with China:

(a) A warning to Taiwan against declaring independence (Fig. 3)

and (b) Trump reportedly urged Japan’s PM to avoid further escalations in dispute with China (Fig. 4)

(ii) Putin-Xi Meeting - Whilst the Trump-Xi meeting was spontaneous, the Putin-Xi meeting was the formalization of a deepening relationship. The mere fact of two military superpowers visited Xi in tight sequence meant that China has played a pivotal role in international conflict resolution. (Fig. 5).

The joint declarations issued by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in 2025–2026 can be summarized as a strategic blueprint for a closer China–Russia partnership aimed at reshaping the global order away from U.S. dominance toward what they call a “multipolar world.”

(a) Strategic Alignment Against U.S. Influence: The core theme was opposition to what both leaders described as U.S. “hegemonism”- unilateral sanctions, military alliances, missile defense expansion, and “interference” in sovereign states. The declarations repeatedly criticized U.S.-led security structures and economic coercion. They portrayed China and Russia as defenders of global stability and international law.  

(b)  “Multipolar World” Vision. A major objective was to promote a new international system in which power is distributed among several major civilizations/states, Western liberal dominance is reduced. Global South countries gain more influence. Both governments framed this as creating:“a more just and democratic international order.”  

(c) Expansion of China–Russia Cooperation - The declarations deepened cooperation across multiple sectors: Economic, energy trade, local-currency settlement, infrastructure, Arctic shipping routes, and banking/payment systems bypassing the U.S. Dollar, technology, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, space cooperation, cyber coordination, nuclear energy, Military/Security, strategic military coordination, joint exercises, missile defense concerns, intelligence/security cooperation. And about 20 cooperation documents were reportedly signed.

As regards floral arrangement, the centerpiece was Pink and White Phalaenopsis Orchids. (Fig, 6).

In Chinese culture, the pink and white Phalaenopsis orchids are an expression of affection, purity, nobility, and lasting friendship.

(iii) Kevin Warsh - In the past fortnight, Wall Street has been apprehensive of what a hawkish Kevin Warsh would do in his reign on the Fed Chair. Warsh has been vocal on US spending and borrowing way too much to greese the US economy. On account of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and Warsh, interes rates has been creeping up since mid-April. ( Fig. 7).

As far as my arithmetic goes, Fed’s control of the Fed Funds rate lever can no longer dictate the Treasury yield curve and must choose the lesser of two evils. Protect the US dollar and let the bond market collapse under the weight of inflation, or let US dollar run its natural course: print and buy US Treasuries to bail out the Treasury market as a buyer of last resort.  Last October, I predicted that the Fed would start QE by December 2025 when Treasury issuance exhausted M1 money supply. This same logic tells us that, if Warsh begins to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet by $40 billion per month instead of increasing it by $40 billion a month, as Powell initiated last December, everything would collapse by September 2026. Tthe pressure of Treasuries being stuffed into the Primary Dealers would exhaust even M2 by Q4 2026.  (Fig. 8).

So let us be on guard that, after Warsh’s confirmation, he will print money like a drunken sailor and hyperinflation will be rampant by the final quarter of 2026. Watch and pray that you can escape all this.

Act 3:6  Then Peter said, "Silver and gold I do not have, but what I do have I give you: In the name of Jesus Christ of Nazareth, rise up and walk." 7  And he took him by the right hand and lifted him up, and immediately his feet and ankle bones received strength. 8  So he, leaping up, stood and walked and entered the temple with them—walking, leaping, and praising God. 9  And all the people saw him walking and praising God. 10  Then they knew that it was he who sat begging alms at the Beautiful Gate of the temple; and they were filled with wonder and amazement at what had happened to him. 

 

The Next Anticipated Move

The week ended on May 8, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

The Next Anticipated Move: My good friend sent a meme yesterday and christened Trump with another nickname - NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). It is funny but also tragic.  (Fig. 1)

For all of us not involved in the war theatre, we still need to ponder what the next move will be because globally none of us are spared from the effects of the Ukrainian and Iranian wars. So let’s psychologically profile the warmongers and see if we can make some sense of their behavioral patterns. To do this, I will model them based on a profile of an “ addicted” gambler, with explanations along the way. (Fig. 2).

 (i) The Addicted Brain (Neurobiology) - The core of gambling addiction is the dysregulation of dopamine, the neurotransmitter responsible for pleasure and reward. Credit for this understanding goes to the University of Cambridge, and there are 4 aspects.

(a) Anticipation Over Result: Dopamine levels spike during the uncertainty and anticipation of a bet, rather than the win itself. This creates a "chemical shift" that offers a temporary escape from reality. The Art of the Deal trumps everything else - On the back of a win in Venezuela, the adrenaline rush blinded the warmonger’s brain to hastily attack a much bigger and well-fortified adversary, in total disregard of the risks involved.

(b) Variable Ratio Reinforcement: This is the most addictive schedule of reward, where wins are unpredictable. The brain becomes intensely engaged because it never knows when the next "hit" is coming, making the behaviour highly resistant to stopping - notorious for TACO, repeated defeats just mean a change of name of the project or operations, and the attacks continued until bankruptcy. In personal life, Trump was a six times bankrupt, and in politics, the dismal results in Korea, Vietnam, Iraqi, Afghanistan, Ukreanian, global tariffs, and now the Strait of Hormuz mean one more try, and the US will surely win.  

(c) The "Near-Miss" Effect: In an addicted brain, a "near-miss" (e.g., two out of three matching symbols) is processed as a win rather than a loss. This triggers reward pathways, encouraging the person to continue betting because they feel they are "close" - yeah, decapitated the Iranian leadership, destroyed buildings and decoy missile launchers together with an aged assortment of boats and vintage Iranian fighter planes mean US is already near victory.

(d) Tolerance and Withdrawal: Over time, gamblers need higher stakes to achieve the same "high". When trying to stop, they experience physical and psychological withdrawal symptoms like irritability, restlessness, and anxiety - in our last Blog, we have provided news clip under the paragraph of Commander-in-Doubt to fully explain Trump’s behavior.

(ii)  Cognitive Distortions - Addicted gamblers often hold irrational beliefs that justify their continued play.

(a) Illusion of Control: The belief that they can influence a random outcome through "skill," rituals, or specific knowledge - The Art of the Deal and Trump’s favourite mantra, “I hold all the cards,” say it all.

(b) Gambler’s Fallacy: The incorrect belief that if an event (like a loss) happens frequently, a different outcome - all the realty assessment is ignored, or the bearer is fired.

(c) Chasing Losses: A hallmark symptom where the gambler feels they must keep playing to recoup lost money. Psychologically, this shifts gambling from "entertainment" to a "desperate solution" for financial problems - $40 trillion in debt and climbing, no end in sight until bankruptcy enters.

(iii) Emotional and Psychological Drivers - For many, gambling is not about the money, but about emotional regulation.

(a) Escapism: Gambling acts as a "numbing" mechanism to escape stress, depression, anxiety, or past trauma - after 17 tweets on Truth Social in one night with 4 more after 7am, is this what a President should do?

(b) Self-Esteem and Power: Winning provides a fleeting sense of dominance, power, and inflated self-esteem that may be missing from the individual's daily life.Trump’s insecurity is in full display with his obsession to be in front of cameras and non-stop posts on social media.

(c ) Internal Conflict: Addicted gamblers often live in a state of "hidden illness," feeling a mental battle between the part of them that wants to stop and the part that craves the escape. This leads to extensive lying and deception to hide the extent of the problem from loved ones - Trump is in a state of total alienation with his supporters and allies.

All of the above observations of an addicted gambler fit the warmongers like hand in glove. Sadly, if the pathology is not checked by its own constituents, then order will be imposed by external forces. The $64 question is when the pain threshold will be reached for Americans and Europeans to stop this madness. My best guess is that the broken supply chain and logistics will fully manifest in the coming summer and fall; hopefully, this will be timely enough to impact the next election cycle. I am pessimistic; however, even with hyperinflation and the food and cost of living crisis, the deeply entrenched shadow government will not change its course. The pathology of gambling disorder has become endemic. After a pause, the warmongers will try again their old playbook of economic choke points and this time round will be the Strait of Malacca, the last of four choke points they have not tried. With that we will formally enter WWIII and may God have mercy to those who believe in Him. (Fig. 3)

 Revelation 6:7  When He opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come and see." 8  So I looked, and behold, a pale horse. And the name of him who sat on it was Death, and Hades followed with him. And power was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword, with hunger, with death, and by the beasts of the earth.   

Cogito, ergo sum

The week ended on April 24, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

Cogito, ergo sum: My friend’s son is a successful ophthalmologist and runs a busy clinic in Brisbane, whenever there are issues that bother him, his way to unwind was to mow the lawn up and down the street he lives on, including his neighbors’. Whilst mowing, he also verbalizes the issues he faces and conceptualizes a solution. My friend said her son was a highly strung person until he changed his routine of mowing to quietly reading his Bible. The title of this Blog is Cogito ergo sum meaning “I think, therefore I am.” A lot of the time, the issues we face are bigger than ourselves, and we do require a higher wisdom.

On Thursday night, Trump sent out 17 tweets on his Truth Social, and from 7am the next morning, he sent 4 more. Trump could not sleep because he was stressed out and alone, fighting the problems he had created without any higher wisdom. We, too, would become hysterical if we fed on a steady diet of Trump’s TACO. For my own sanity, I tend to scan more data points to form a big-picture mosaic rather than react to propaganda narratives from either side of the conflict. Below are some interesting data points for my readers to ponder.

(i) Gathering Pace of Petrol Yuen - As of March 8, 2026, the balance of RMB settlement in the Middle East crude oil trade with China reached 41%, surpassing the euro for the first time,to become the second largest settlement currency in the region, and the share of the US dollar fell to 52%. (Fig. 1).

The Dollar Hegemony is US last stronghold, and therefore its redundancy is an existential threat. On the other hand, if US achieves a choke hold over the flow of resources from the Middle East to China, China too will suffer irreversible damage to its sovereignty. Henry Kissinger once said, “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests" (Fig. 2).

This truth is equally applicable to every country. While China has repeatedly stated that she has no intention of ever becoming a hegemon or to displace US, it is obvious that US and Iran’s security concerns can never be satisfied without a third-party mediation. In a 3 step move behind the scenes, China quickened a solution to the US/Iran impasse by (a) sponsoring Pakistan to be the mediator and host cease fire talk in Islamabad.  (b) Offered to be the interim custodian of Iranian Uranium and to dilute, (Fig. 3)

and (c) sells a complete array of offensive and defensive air systems to Pakistan. (Fig. 4)

Now, the interesting part of the deal is that the entire FX reserve of Pakistan is only $20 billion and don’t tell me that Pakistan is so threatened by India that it will exhaust 60% of its FX reserve in one go. Just by coincidence, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will give Pakistan $5 billion is financial assistance. (Fig. 5).

And all this came less than 10 days after Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait refused to provide air bases to US to stage attacks against Iran, (Fig. 6).

Well folks, anyone of you want to bet a cup of Luckin coffee with me that Pakistan and the Gulf Trio is not making alternative security arrangements in the Middle East with China’s blessings. Who knows the package of 40 J-35A stealth fighters, KJ-500 AWACS, and HQ-19 missile defense systems will eventually be sited in Saudi Arabia instead. Let’s wait and see if MBS kissed Trump’s behind or placed his sandals there.   

(ii) Commander-in-Doubt - the distancing of US high-ranking military officials from their Commander-in-Chief takes a new turn when one reads the juicy tidbits leaks from the Pantagon. (a) Trump kept out of the room during operation to find downed pilots in Iran after ‘screaming’ at aides for hours, report says.(Fig. 7)

 (b) Was Donald Trump 'blocked' from using the nuclear codes against Iran? (Fig. 8)

and (c ) Navy Secretary John Phelan is leaving in the latest departure of a top defense leader (Fig. 9).

Very odd indeed in the midst of a war and the just announced naval blockade against Iran.

(iii) Too Far Gone - Every month, I scan the accounts of the US Government, and there were no surprises. USS is sinking like the Titanic. The picture has been desperate; the trajectory has not changed over the past decade.  If we strip out the deceptive goobery goo speak of the Fed and the US Treasury, in 3 simple charts, everyone can understand the entire global financial system is set for a total revamp. (a) Current Account Deficit - US runs a curent account deficit of about $1.2 trillion annually and has been in deficit for 51 years. (Fig. 10).

(b) Buyers of Treasuries - Primary Dealers are stuffed with US Gov Bonds, Notes and Bills at every Treasury auction, and by Dec 2025, Treasury issuance has already exhausted the money supply M1 and the Fed started QE. (Fig. 11).

But so far, the Fed has been an unwilling banker, so PONTUS decided that US will steal and rob to fill the void. Now US$1.2 trillion annually is the GDP equivalent of a country the size of the Netherlands or Saudi Arabia, or half of Canada and for in between meals, Venezuela, Greenland and Cuba. And (c ) US Export of Non Monetary Gold - Not all plans that POTUS has in mind worked out, but bills keep on coming and what to do? Sell the family silver. (Fig. 12)

As the USS sinks, expect everyone to jump ship. The rhetoric of the US/Iran war will continue, but it will stop when people eventually stop paying attention to what POTUS says. (Fig. 13)

 

Proverbs 17:27  He who has knowledge spares his words, And a man of understanding is of a calm spirit. 28  Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive.