Cogito, ergo sum

The week ended on April 24, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

Cogito, ergo sum: My friend’s son is a successful ophthalmologist and runs a busy clinic in Brisbane, whenever there are issues that bother him, his way to unwind was to mow the lawn up and down the street he lives on, including his neighbors’. Whilst mowing, he also verbalizes the issues he faces and conceptualizes a solution. My friend said her son was a highly strung person until he changed his routine of mowing to quietly reading his Bible. The title of this Blog is Cogito ergo sum meaning “I think, therefore I am.” A lot of the time, the issues we face are bigger than ourselves, and we do require a higher wisdom.

On Thursday night, Trump sent out 17 tweets on his Truth Social, and from 7am the next morning, he sent 4 more. Trump could not sleep because he was stressed out and alone, fighting the problems he had created without any higher wisdom. We, too, would become hysterical if we fed on a steady diet of Trump’s TACO. For my own sanity, I tend to scan more data points to form a big-picture mosaic rather than react to propaganda narratives from either side of the conflict. Below are some interesting data points for my readers to ponder.

(i) Gathering Pace of Petrol Yuen - As of March 8, 2026, the balance of RMB settlement in the Middle East crude oil trade with China reached 41%, surpassing the euro for the first time,to become the second largest settlement currency in the region, and the share of the US dollar fell to 52%. (Fig. 1).

The Dollar Hegemony is US last stronghold, and therefore its redundancy is an existential threat. On the other hand, if US achieves a choke hold over the flow of resources from the Middle East to China, China too will suffer irreversible damage to its sovereignty. Henry Kissinger once said, “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests" (Fig. 2).

This truth is equally applicable to every country. While China has repeatedly stated that she has no intention of ever becoming a hegemon or to displace US, it is obvious that US and Iran’s security concerns can never be satisfied without a third-party mediation. In a 3 step move behind the scenes, China quickened a solution to the US/Iran impasse by (a) sponsoring Pakistan to be the mediator and host cease fire talk in Islamabad.  (b) Offered to be the interim custodian of Iranian Uranium and to dilute, (Fig. 3)

and (c) sells a complete array of offensive and defensive air systems to Pakistan. (Fig. 4)

Now, the interesting part of the deal is that the entire FX reserve of Pakistan is only $20 billion and don’t tell me that Pakistan is so threatened by India that it will exhaust 60% of its FX reserve in one go. Just by coincidence, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will give Pakistan $5 billion is financial assistance. (Fig. 5).

And all this came less than 10 days after Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait refused to provide air bases to US to stage attacks against Iran, (Fig. 6).

Well folks, anyone of you want to bet a cup of Luckin coffee with me that Pakistan and the Gulf Trio is not making alternative security arrangements in the Middle East with China’s blessings. Who knows the package of 40 J-35A stealth fighters, KJ-500 AWACS, and HQ-19 missile defense systems will eventually be sited in Saudi Arabia instead. Let’s wait and see if MBS kissed Trump’s behind or placed his sandals there.   

(ii) Commander-in-Doubt - the distancing of US high-ranking military officials from their Commander-in-Chief takes a new turn when one reads the juicy tidbits leaks from the Pantagon. (a) Trump kept out of the room during operation to find downed pilots in Iran after ‘screaming’ at aides for hours, report says.(Fig. 7)

 (b) Was Donald Trump 'blocked' from using the nuclear codes against Iran? (Fig. 8)

and (c ) Navy Secretary John Phelan is leaving in the latest departure of a top defense leader (Fig. 9).

Very odd indeed in the midst of a war and the just announced naval blockade against Iran.

(iii) Too Far Gone - Every month, I scan the accounts of the US Government, and there were no surprises. USS is sinking like the Titanic. The picture has been desperate; the trajectory has not changed over the past decade.  If we strip out the deceptive goobery goo speak of the Fed and the US Treasury, in 3 simple charts, everyone can understand the entire global financial system is set for a total revamp. (a) Current Account Deficit - US runs a curent account deficit of about $1.2 trillion annually and has been in deficit for 51 years. (Fig. 10).

(b) Buyers of Treasuries - Primary Dealers are stuffed with US Gov Bonds, Notes and Bills at every Treasury auction, and by Dec 2025, Treasury issuance has already exhausted the money supply M1 and the Fed started QE. (Fig. 11).

But so far, the Fed has been an unwilling banker, so PONTUS decided that US will steal and rob to fill the void. Now US$1.2 trillion annually is the GDP equivalent of a country the size of the Netherlands or Saudi Arabia, or half of Canada and for in between meals, Venezuela, Greenland and Cuba. And (c ) US Export of Non Monetary Gold - Not all plans that POTUS has in mind worked out, but bills keep on coming and what to do? Sell the family silver. (Fig. 12)

As the USS sinks, expect everyone to jump ship. The rhetoric of the US/Iran war will continue, but it will stop when people eventually stop paying attention to what POTUS says. (Fig. 13)

 

Proverbs 17:27  He who has knowledge spares his words, And a man of understanding is of a calm spirit. 28  Even a fool is counted wise when he holds his peace; When he shuts his lips, he is considered perceptive. 

 

Stone Age and Cease Fire

The week ended on April 10, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

Stone Age and Cease Fire: The fog of war is thick, so how can one stay sane amid the turbulence and lies? There are people who wait and see but as the saying goes, “He who walks in the middle of the road gets hit from both sides”.  (Fig. 1)

So for me and my family, I build a base case of a likely outcome with robust risk tolerance for unexpected events. There are 3 separate quadrants involved in my base model algorithms and for what is worth, I like to share with readers for reference or negative examples as the case may be. The quadrants separately deal with aspects of leadership, aspects of Conflict and aspects of Combat. (Fig. 2).

(i) Aspects of Leadership: In my apprentice years, I attended a management training course in the early eighties. I was told every 60 to 80 years there would be a major war at the peak of economic prosperity or at the trough of depression. At the time, the lecturer did not explain why but witnessing the current Zionists/Iran War, I distill 4 drivers behind the leadership decision of the parties involved with acrostic of A,B,C and D.

A is for Arrogance: Proverbs 16:18 Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before a fall. Arrogance is preoccupation with self. For over 50 years, the Strait of Hormuz was considered as the number one strategic economic choke point. Yet no US President dared to claim this prize until the present White House incumbent. Armed not so much with “The Art of the Deal” but with NPD (Narcissistic Personality Disorder), Trump had the audacity to attempt a take down of a country with 90 million people believing the mission will be accomplished within a weekend market intermission. This is sheer lunacy.

B is for Blindness: There is none so blind as those who will not see. (Fig. 3).

It has not been enough for Trump to surround himself with a bunch of low achiever “YES MEN” in his Cabinet. At the height of war, experienced military commanders were sacked because the Generals  think the Commander-in-chief war plan sucks. (Fig. 4).

C is for Capability:  Before the 2026 war against Iran, US munition armory had already been seriously depleted by the proxy war against Russia and a continuous drain of interceptors to defend Israel. The weapons availability problem is worsened by rare earth restrictions imposed by China. 41 days have now lapsed and as expected US inventory of distant strike missiles and interceptors are exceedingly low as evidenced by recent attacks being carried out by bombers, hence, fighters and support aircraft are dropping like flies. On the other hand, no such issues have been observed in Russia or Iran.

D is for Determination: 47 years of sanctions against Iran, 8 years of full Western backed proxy war instigated by Saddam Hussein and over twenty years of preparation and restraint to avoid a bloody war, when it had to come, there is no retreat - prevail or perish. Iran is fighting for survival whilst for US is a war of choice. Who blinked first. The term TACO says it all.

(ii) Aspects of Conflict: I have previously used Professor Jiang’s 4 aspects of Conflict in a previous Blog titled “Time is of the Essence” dated March 14, 2026. (Fig. 5) and will only give a brief update below:

(a) Narrative: Qatar and Saudi had stood back. A French ship had already crossed the Strait of Hormuz after negotiation  and now a South Korea’s oil tanker has queued up. None of the 7 countries called by Trump responded to front up with battleship as escorts.

(b) Political: Division is seen within the MAGA camp against the war on Iran. (Fig. 6)

In the Chinese media, it was noted that the united political front of anti-china is subtly shifting to one of antisemitism especially among the younger age group. (Fig. 7).

(c) Economic: 18 US Corporate Titans are targeted for attack by IRGC. Would they follow Elon Musk footstep to step aside when the heat on their bottom line became too heavy to bear.    (Fig. 8).

 

(d) Military: This section will be expended in the following paragraphs.

(iii) Aspects of Combat: Here I followed the traditional military analysis of METT-TC.

(a) Mission: All wars should have a clearly defined, attainable, and decisive goal. This is the master consideration, ensuring all actions are directed toward the overall goal. Sadly, even US MSM are complaining the White House is continually shifting goal post in defining objectives of the attack on Iran. Sadly prior history on the war against Libya and Iraq tells us the truth will never be publicly confessed. My take is the attack on Iran was a cheap US shot at resource grab after Venezuela.

(b) Enemy: Analyzing the enemy's strength, disposition, capabilities, probable courses of action, and vulnerabilities to identify where to apply force for maximum effect. Various reports suggests US had grossly underestimated Iran (Fig. 9).

(c) Terrain and Weather: Assessing the physical landscape (terrain) and atmospheric conditions (weather). This includes identifying key terrain for defensive or offensive advantages and exploiting weather conditions for protection or surprise. The mountainous typography Iran  is a natural fortress. The experienced top generals in Pentagon well understood Iran’s geography is easy to defend and very difficult to attack. (Fig. 10).

Research indicates Iran has over 30 underground missile bases and what the Zionists destroyed was surface decoy missile launches purchased from Chin. These decoys were realistic to the fine details of having embedded heating elements to deceive Zionist heat sensing surveillance and targeting devices according to Alastair Crooke. (Fig. 11).

By June, opportunities for ground invasion will close as temperature in midsummer for Iran will exceed 40 degrees and can exceed 50 degrees along with high humidity along the coast with rare desert tornadoes. By the time, thw weather cool down, it will already be campaign time for US midterm election. 

(d )Troops and Support: Assessment of the personnel, equipment, training, and capabilities available to the commander. Latest OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) shows the Zionists is now using 2026 manufactured missiles meaning all existing stockpile been exhausted. In 2025 only 11 THAAD missiles and 22 Tomahawk missiles were produced, although Pentagon announced in 2026 there will be a ramp up, but who knows?

Well dear readers, my base case is the Zionists has run out of cards and also chips on the table. The remaining options are long distance bombers with gravity bombs and perhaps JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) tail kits for enhanced precision. This however requires flying overland on Iranian terrain with mid air refueling. The risks of being challenged by Iranian air defense will rise disproportionately and rewards uncertain. After a failed ground operation and 12 aircraft down last week, Trump was forced to TACO but of course the Zionists won’t give up so easily. Nonetheless, the window is fast closing and the current sad saga should continue to latest June 2026. In the meantime the Zionists will cheat and buy time for at least one more major assault. The timing is bad and the global economy will suffer severe damage. Hard times are ahead but not to the point of irreversibly collapse. Trump will loose control of Senate and possibly Congress in the mid term election. Dollar Hegemony officially finish in 2026.

 Matthew 5:25  Agree with your adversary quickly, while you are on the way with him, lest your adversary deliver you to the judge, the judge hand you over to the officer, and you be thrown into prison. 26  Assuredly, I say to you, you will by no means get out of there till you have paid the last penny. 

The Beginning of Sorrows

The week ended on March 27, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

1. The Beginning of Sorrows: Pain is a vital, protective warning system, essential for survival, designed to detect, signal, and prevent damage to body tissues. Its primary purpose is to alert the brain to potential harm, prompting immediate action to avoid danger, and encouraging behavior that promotes healing. 

Iran has stood for the cause of the Palestinians for 45 years since 1979 yet only an extremely small minority of the global village was aware of the mass concentration camp conditions at Gaza until October 7 2023. But even after that sad jailbreak, Zionists’ experts of psychological warfare have applied the “Saturation Bombing” technique developed by the Tavistock Institute and soon enough we are all distracted and moved on to other matters that demanded our attention. Nevertheless, the “Ghost of Free Palestinian” and “Greater Israel” would not rest and is now moving onto the centre stage. The world is still without solutions because nothing has been done to rid the root of evil and the pain persists.  

Christine Lagarde, a person I seldom take seriously because of her pro American ideology at last made some sense when she talked about “the war shock is beyond our comprehension”. (Fig. 1).

Allow me to present to you a picture which summarizes the initial fallout of what a chokehold on Strait of Hormuz would impact the global economy. I totally agree with Lagarde, it is beyond most people’s imagination because it hits the global supply chain beyond just energy into all agricultural, mining to basic and high tech processes. (Fig. 2).

(i) An Eschatological Perspective: As a student of bible prophecy, I reject the claims of religious zealots (Jewish Zionists, Evangelical Zionists and Apocalyptic Jihadists) that their wars would accelerate the coming of their Messiah or al-Masih. However, no sane student of Geo-politics can ignore an understanding of the eschatological perspective of the actors in these wars if one wants to be prepared for the chaos that is upon us. In just 10 verses (Matthew 24:4 to 14), the bible foretold “the beginning of sorrows” to “the coming to the end”.  (Fig. 3).

Matthew 24:4  And Jesus answered and said to them: "Take heed that no one deceives you. 5  For many will come in My name, saying, 'I am the Christ,' and will deceive many.6  And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. 7  For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places. 8  All these are the beginning of sorrows.9  "Then they will deliver you up to tribulation and kill you, and you will be hated by all nations for My name's sake. 10  And then many will be offended, will betray one another, and will hate one another. 11  Then many false prophets will rise up and deceive many. 12  And because lawlessness will abound, the love of many will grow cold. 13  But he who endures to the end shall be saved. 14  And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and then the end will come.  

(ii)  The Eschatological Sequence:  The Zionists/Iranian conflict falls into the category of wars and rumors of war. We are all troubled but the end is not yet. Is it just a US military excursion or a full scale war? Will there be a ground invasion or talks? Irrespective of which talking head is in front of the TV camera or social platform, my best guess is this conflict will last a long time but with interludes of stress and relative calm. The disruption to the global supply chain will lead to economic depression, hyperinflation, famines and pestilences.

(iii) The Political Leadership will collapse before The Military Machine: 903 days have lapsed since October 7 2023 and the IDF has not been able to eradicate Hamas. Remember Gaza is a small area of 140 square miles, totally surrounded and bombed to smithereens. (Fig. 4).

Now how long would it take for US to force Iran to bend the knee given Iran has a land area of 636,000 square miles, 93 million population and underground armory and munition factories that can produce thousands of missiles and hundred of thousands of drones annually. The answer is we will see the used by date of Trump and Natanyahu long before Iran’s. If I pessimistically assume Trump and Natanyahu’s self interest is more important than their National interests, then we would have difficult days ahead for another 6 months to 2 years until a respite arrives. I said before and will repeat again it is sufficient for Iran to defeat the presidency of Trump and Natanyahu and that will be the likely outcome of the current conflict.

(iv) Change of World Order: When the presidency of Trump ends, so too will be the Dollar Hegemony. The London/New York control of commodity pricing through financial derivatives too will crumble. This will be replaced by national champions of producers /users based on monopolistic /oligopolistic /oligosonic influences. Similar to water seeks its own level, capital and resources will flow to a region of stability and a new power structure will emerge. Few can imagine where this new power base will arise but biblical prophecy has already predicted where the power base will be located. I will provide this answer to those who asks less I annoy readers with no interests in the subject.

2. Financial Market Performance: Performance of various asset class for first 3 months of 2026 are as follows: (Fig. 5)

Brent Oil (+74.28%), Uranium (+16.52%), Gold (+4.02%), DXY (+1.85%), RMB (+1.18%), EUR (-1.92%), JPY (-2.12%), Silver (-2.67%), Hang Seng Index (-3.82%), Copper (-4.01%), S&P 500 (-7.74%), Nasdaq (-9.19%), Nvidia (-11.26%), JP Morgan (-12.94%), Bitcoin (-24.67%) and Microsoft (-26.5%).

In the same period 10 Year Treasury Notes Prices fell 1.83% while 30 Year Bond prices fell 1.08% indicating the US Bond Market been artificially propped up to avoid a financial panic from spreading to the wider market. There is any reason to doubt TACO is functioning as predicted.

Proverbs 16:18  Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before a fall.19  Better to be of a humble spirit with the lowly, Than to divide the spoil with the proud. 20  He who heeds the word wisely will find good, And whoever trusts in the LORD, happy is he. 21  The wise in heart will be called prudent, And sweetness of the lips increases learning. 22  Understanding is a wellspring of life to him who has it. But the correction of fools is folly. 23  The heart of the wise teaches his mouth, And adds learning to his lips. 

Time is of the Essence

The week ended on March 13, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past week are:

Time is of the Essence: "Time is of the essence" is a legal term in contracts meaning that performing obligations by the exact date or time specified is critical. This is even more so when applied to war. The mightiest military prepared for a 4 days mission will fall to a lesser power when the war is drawn out to a war of attrition. My analysis in this week's Blog is to examine the chips on the table for the Zionist/Iranian war with a view to what and when a possible conclusion may result. I will use Professor Jiang’s 4 dimensions of war to present my thesis. (Fig. 1)

(i) Narrative - Narrative is world opinion. On this count the unprovoked attack on Iran with a second decapitation strike using deceptive negotiations as a ploy means the Zionists will stand isolated from third party assistance. Another fatal mistake made by US in her haste for the pre-emptive strike was the bombing of a junior girls’ school with 180 deaths, the majority being school girls aged 7-12. The most convincing explanation was the school compound was selected through AI because the US Secretary of War overrode safeguards of human verification of target validity. There was a reason why Anthropic refused a lucrative contract with the Pentagon on grounds of refusal to allow Claude to be used for domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons systems that can kill people without human input. (Fig. 2).

It is common knowledge the IDF indiscriminate bombing in Gaza was on similar methodology. These war crimes will explode in the face of Zionists elites as antiwar sentiment rose from global economic hardships gradually developing on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We have to be aware that Zionists may counteract an adverse narrative by diversion through false flag acts of terrorism. This has happened in numerous occasions before, so be on guard.  

(ii) Political - There has been too many blunders by the Trump Administration and his predecessors. Tariff war on Liberation Day and derivative cost of living crisis, ICE killings of US citizens in dealing with illegal immigrants, Venezuela, Canada and Denmark and of course subjugation of MAGA to Zionists interests. All these have not endeared the Trump Administrations to national and international approvals. (Fig. 3).

Nonetheless, the US Mid Term election is months away and the world simply cannot survive another month if energy products continued with the current blockage. Someone will get thrown under the bus for reasons of war crimes as enunciated in the previous paragraph or impeachable offenses disclosed in the Epstein Files if a reset is deemed necessary. (Fig. 4).

Finger pointing already began at Pete Hegseth and let’s see if Trump would climb on the bus to the off ramp.

(iii)  Economic - The strategic and economic significance of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-El-Mandeb at the door of Iran and Yemen is well known to all students of Geo-politics. Both are gateways to 20%+ of global flow of Oil and Gas, Fertilizers and Container trades and have repeatedly been warned by Iran and Yemen as potential leverages in Middle East Wars. (Fig. 5).

Yet, it is exactly where the Trump Administration failed to pay attention. (Fig. 6).

It is ironic that US wants to grab control of the energy transit lever as a counterweight to China’s choke hold on rare earth that now manifested in Gulf energy is only allowed to flow to China but not US allies.  Proverb 16:18 “Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before a fall. ” (Fig. 7).

 

(iv)  Military - In the 8 years war between Iraq and Iran which began in 1980, Iran realized then she was fighting a proxy war against the Anglo American empire. When US turned on her attack dog Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran knew she would meet with the same fate eventually. So for over 20 years, Iran;s theocracy has been preparing for a final combat with the sole superpower. To see this preparation in proper context, we first need to earmark some important data points on Iran:

(a) Iran land mass (Fig. 8) -  is about one fifth of the size of the lower 48 states (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) or the combined land area of 31 of US smallest states.

In March 2026, US sent between 4 to 7 B1 & B2  strategic bombers daily from US mainland or a UK airbase to strike Iran. These bombers all require mid air refueling using tankers like the KC135. Payload for these bombers varies from two 30,000 lbs ultra bunker busters to 16 bombs of 5,000 lbs each. Each mission is therefore 8 to 100 bombs dependant upon the mission objectives on a land mass equal to 31 States. Why from US mainland or UK? Well, Iran claims 70% of US Bases in the Middle East has already been destroyed. (Fig. 9).

An important data point is these refueling tankers were all originated from US mainland or Diego Garcia as supply of jet fuel in Europe and Gulf US Bases are under stress.  (Fig. 10)

(b)  Topography of Iran (Fig.11) -  Iran is a mountainous country, difficult to attack but easy to defend.

For over 20 years, key military installations of Iran are constructed as underground bases up to 500 meters deep. This precautionary measure at hind sight proved the forethought and care which the IRGC took in their war plans as bunker buster bombs would only be effective up to 60 meters. (Fig. 12, 13,14, 15 and 16)

show how missiles and drones are stored and operate and have been confirmed by western analysts. Alastair Crooke, ex UK Diplomat and Geo-political commentator described Iran’s 2000 Km coastline are like honeycombs of missiles tunnels and launchers.

As students of Geo-politics, how are we to evaluate a possible outcome of this war using Professor Jiang 4 dimensional analysis. Let’s examine again (i) the June 2025 Trump obliteration of Iranian’s enriched uranium was a hoax against a knowledge of Iran’s underground facility and (ii) the problems concerning logistics and efficacy of long range limited bombing and vulnerability of tanker refueling (Fig. 17),

(iii) the most recent strikes by US and Iran (Fig. 18)

- US could only reach certain targets on the west frank of Iran (Map on the Left) with Iranian strikes more well positioned. (Map on the Left). and finally (iv)  the character trait of TACO.

For the time being, not all the cards have been revealed but I have high hopes that the cards on the table would be similar to those I presented earlier and Armageddon is still sometimes off. (Fig. 19)

Luke 14:27  And whoever does not bear his cross and come after Me cannot be My disciple. 28  For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it— 29  lest, after he has laid the foundation, and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, 30  saying, 'This man began to build and was not able to finish.' 31  Or what king, going to make war against another king, does not sit down first and consider whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against him with twenty thousand? 32  Or else, while the other is still a great way off, he sends a delegation and asks conditions of peace. 33  So likewise, whoever of you does not forsake all that he has cannot be My disciple.