Counting Losses in the 12 Days War

The week ended on June 27, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

Counting Losses in the 12 Days War: Round one of the very bloody Israel/Iran war has just concluded as both sides suffered very serious damages, became over-extended and temporarily ceased fire. The aggression shown by the Zionists further destabilized global peace and security and destroyed forever the “Rule Based International Order”. Setting aside the faked claims of victory for those involved, let’s count the losses using OSINT (“Open Source Intelligence”). Why I say faked claims of victory because the commonly recognized definition of a military victory is “when the stated political objectives that motivated the military operation” is achieved.

(i) Israel -  The Friday, June 13 pr-emptive attack on Iran was meant to achieve 3 purposes: (a) Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Enrichment facility and uranium stockpile. This has failed even with the US bombing. (Fig. 1).

 

 

(b) Decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear program leadership - partially successful but at a huge cost and (c) Trigger a regime change in Iran - no immediate success and unlikely to see further success.

According to OSINT, the department head for Iranian intelligence responsible for Israel was a Mossad Agent. At the risk of exposing Mossad’s sleeper cells in Iran at the highest level, Israel has bet the house to decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear program leadership. Over a dozen of IRGC Commanders (“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps”) were killed in one go when a faked meeting was called to gather the targets in one setting. On the other hand, at least 6 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed individually with precision as to the bedroom they slept in these scientists’ private residential apartments. The method of the attack revealed a harsh reality: most of the Israeli firepower and drones were launched by local collaborators and agents inside Iranian territory. Iranian authorities have discovered that suicide drones used to assassinate high-profile figures, from military commanders to nuclear scientists, are small but deadly and are often launched using ground-based systems. At the time of writing this Blog, the Iranian Security apparatus has arrested over 700 suspected collaborators and summary executed 3 Mossad agents and gutted Israeli drone manufacture sites within Iran with over 10,000 drones seized. (Fig. 2).

Perhaps the biggest loss to Israel in taking on Iran is Israel has crossed the line to pressurized US into action and clearly displayed the Zionists are pulling the strings of the US Administration and Congress. The live fire also allowed Iran and the world to pierce through the myth of invincibility of IDF and the US Military. Even the most expensive air defense system in the world, notwithstanding being aided and abetted by all the fire power of US Naval, Air Force and bases in the region, is susceptible to fatigue and burnout within two weeks if the system is run on a 24/7 basis by irritation of drones and rockets at a tiny fraction of the costs. (Fig. 3)

Next to machine burnout is the battle weariness of the Israeli public and the IDF. Israelites have no stomach to run and hide in bomb shelters when sirens reacted to air raids in a totally unpredictable manner. Sleep deprivation is a psychological and physiological torture and prosperous Jews now get a taste of the medicine they mercilessly dispensed on Palestinians and they are shaken by it.

Finally, Israel is such a small densely populated country that in just 12 days, infrastructure that supports the economy, container ports, airports, power plants, air refineries and major military industrial facilities are severely damaged. (Fig. 4)

(ii) Iran -  The 12 Day War exposed a weak underbelly of Iran in a number of ways: (a) vast infiltration of foreign agents and local collaborators, (b) Antiquated uncoordinated air defense system and (c) Wavering political leadership that tried to seek appease the West without strengthening a strategic partnership with China. The 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, focusing on economic, political, and defense cooperation with China was simply put on the back burner with no action taken. This contrast with Pakistan successful defence campaign against a pr-emptive strike by India followed by Egypt to replace F-16 with China J-15.

To Iran’s credit, just 24 hours after the decapitation strike, Iran was able to regroup with an effective counter offensive tactic that exhaust Israel’s defense capability on a limited resource but clever guerrilla missile plan.  

At this stage, it is commonly accepted that the bombing by US and the retaliatory escapade by Iran against the US Air Base in Qatar were mere political theatrics and combat could breakout at the drop of a hat once both sides are ready.

At the SCO Defense Minister Meeting on 25-26 June 2025, when asked whether China will provide military assistance to Iran, China simply responded that China is Willing to play a constructive role in peace. (Fig. 5).

Political commentators noted Iran is especially interested in China 052D with 64 VLC Missile launchers, the J10CE multiple combat aircraft and the HQ9 SAM system (Red Flag 9 Surface to Air Missile System).

(iii) USA - The political objective of US military engagement with Iran is 3 fold: (a) Protect and reinforce its battering ram. Israel, in the Middle East, (b) Maintain US position as the only implanted military power in the region to the exclusion of Russia and China, and (c) As a curve ball against China to frustrate China’s Eurasia integration plan and OBOR initiative. Whilst status quo may be maintained for the time being, US has lost big time her credibility as a responsible state in luring Iran into a deceptive state of security and unpreparedness through negotiation in bad faith, thus covering a window for Israel to strike. Immediately thereafter Trump failed to honor a pledge of two weeks for continuing negotiations with a stealth bombing within 48 hours. In the context of US has already challenged 150 countries in a tariff war and is in a dire strait to curry favor internationally for fresh credit, such rogue state behaviour would spell an end for US to survive unscathed for the remaining months of 2025. (Fig. 6)

In this period of utmost tension superpower chess game , a wrong move by any player could avail an opponent a distinct advantage in the full spectrum combat. Last week we reported two Chinese Reconnaissance Ships were spotted in Persian Gulf and Donald Trump immediately called for a two week’s pause for negotiations. No doubt the Chinese ships were there to capture every electronic signature on anything relevant in the real life combat. In January this year, China already let US know US Stealth technology is useless against the PLA (Fig. 7),

after Operation Midnight Hammer and a harvest of electronic signatures, PLA can smugly say again to US “GOTCHA”.

In my Nov 23, 2023 Blog titled “Pawns in the Game”, I reported that the Zionist/Muslim war is planned and will spark WWIII. We are now witnessing an acceleration of this momentum. Like the effect of a pebble hitting water, it creates ripples that spread outward from the point of impact. Where do you think you situate in the water. Be  thankful if you are not yet caught up in the ripple and be prepared when the ripple catches up with you.

Proverbs 6:16  These six things the LORD hates, Yes, seven are an abomination to Him: 17  A proud look, A lying tongue, Hands that shed innocent blood, 18  A heart that devises wicked plans, Feet that are swift in running to evil, 19  A false witness who speaks lies, And one who sows discord among brethren. 

The Mystery of Ancient Blood Feuds

The week ended on June 20, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

The Mystery of Ancient Blood Feuds: One of the geopolitical enigmas I have difficulty piecing together from known data points is how Ukraine and Israel set themselves to war against an adversary many times bigger in size and population. Indeed the Washington Post reported Israel will exhaust its air defense missiles in 10 days. (Fig. 1).

Ukraine of course is in worse shape, as the lack of  military industrial surge capacity throughout NATO means even with full NATO backing would still be deficient to guarantee a victory over Russia. Why then with such understanding throughout the international intelligence and diplomatic community war still erupted. On the other hand, if I put on my biblical lenses, the endgame has never been clearer and more predictable. For the benefit of some readers of this Blog who are not familiar with the Scripture, I will draw on secular records to frame a picture that daily media seldom reports on. My prayers is that you will hear me out and not be offended by my reference to a biblical world view.

(i) Zionist are not Jewish: Long before the reestablishment of the present Jewish State, Jews and Arabs have lived in the Palestinian areas in relative peace.  (Fig. 2).

The present Jewish population in Israel comes about in 3 waves of migration, first from Europe, then former USSR and last from North America. (Fig. 3).

Although Natanyahu often quote the Old Testament to legitimize his drive for ethnic cleansing in Israel, 78% of Jews in Israel do not practice Judaism. (Fig. 4).

 In fact true Judaism rejects Zionism. (Fig. 5).

Then who actually are the Zionists.

 

(ii)  The Protocols of the The Elders of Zion: A book was published in 1903 called “The Protocol of the Elders of  Zion” which outlined a grand plan of global domination by a certain group of people called “The Elders of Zion”. Before you immediately discard the book as a propaganda piece according to the controlled disinformation media as antisemitism, please let the over 100 years of past history validate what was said and what actually transpired. (Fig. 6).

Guess which group of people is at the tip of the spear to carry out this world domination plan? They are the “Settler Colonial States” emanated from the old British Empire. (Fig. 7).

A Settler Colonial State is a political entity established when a migrant settler society takes control of a territory and its indigenous population, aiming to replace the original inhabitants and establish a new society on their land. This process often involves the displacement, dispossession, and attempted erasure of the indigenous population's culture and way of life. (Fig. 8).

Behind the Settler Colonial States is of course an Empire that proclaims what governance rules are to be applied with respect to vassal states. (Fig. 9).  

(iii) Why the fire never quenched in the Middle East: After the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the conclusion of WWI, the two victors Britain and France curved up the Middle East and allowed “independent statehood” (Fig. 10)

but embedded seeds of conflict in the drawing up national borders on ethnicity, religious and resource grounds. This is the tried and tested method of divide and conquer. (Fig. 11).

The following 3 maps speaks volume on the conflicts since 1922. (a) On Ethnicity Divide. (Fig. 12) ,

(b) On Resource Divide (Fig. 13),

and (c) On Religious Divide (Fig. 14).

Likewise conflicts between India and Pakistan, the instigation of Tibetans, Uighur in Xinjiang, second generation Vietnam refugees in Hong Kong and second generation ethnic Japanese in Taiwan to destabilize China,  and ethnic Ukrainians against the Russians in Ukraine are all of the same ilk.  But no region can come near to the perpetual state of war in the Middle East and with that a possible clash of the super powers. Iran is strategically important to China as the hub pf the East West OBOR initiative. It is equally important to Russia as the hub of the North South Transit Corridor (Fig. 15).

(iv) Posturing and Quagmire: As the tension rises, Pakistan was the first country that announced they will stand with Iran. (Fig. 16) (from a machine translated editorial in the Chinese media).  

Two days later, Trump met with Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir in the White House with a lame excuse to thank Pakistan for not escalating a skirmish with India. Well, none of us have too short a memory as to forget US forbid Pakistan to use F16 for self defence against an attack by India just weeks ago. The more likely scenario is for Trump to get intelligence on how China will react if US joins the fray. (Fig. 17).

On Jun 21, two Chinese Reconnaissance Ships were spotted in Persian Gulf and Donald Trump immediately called for a two week’s pause for negotiations even though Trump previously made numerous threats against Iran and authorized a military mobilization plan. (Fig. 18)

The Zionist/Muslim conflict is much much more than a regional conflict. It is not a war on ethnic or religious grounds. Neither Israel or Persia will fall in this particular conflict but the flames of war will continue to grow. This stalemate will significantly damage the fragile global economy with a break out of hyper inflation. At the heart of this conflict is an ancient blood feud between twin brothers - Jacob and Esau. There are a large number of “Jews” who are actually not Jews and identified by Hasidic Rabbis as Edomites - Rothschild, Rockefeller and Soros etc. They are not benefactors for the Jewish people but by their actions will cause a destruction of the Jewish race. It may be too much for readers to absorb everything said in one setting. Please stay tune as evolving events will in due course bring everything to light.

Eze 35:1  Moreover the word of the LORD came to me, saying, 2  "Son of man, set your face against Mount Seir and prophesy against it, 3  and say to it, 'Thus says the Lord GOD: "Behold, O Mount Seir, I am against you; I will stretch out My hand against you, And make you most desolate; 4  I shall lay your cities waste, And you shall be desolate. Then you shall know that I am the LORD. 5  "Because you have had an ancient hatred, and have shed the blood of the children of Israel by the power of the sword at the time of their calamity, when their iniquity came to an end, 6  therefore, as I live," says the Lord GOD, "I will prepare you for blood, and blood shall pursue you; since you have not hated blood, therefore blood shall pursue you. 7  Thus I will make Mount Seir most desolate, and cut off from it the one who leaves and the one who returns. 8  And I will fill its mountains with the slain; on your hills and in your valleys and in all your ravines those who are slain by the sword shall fall. 9  I will make you perpetually desolate, and your cities shall be uninhabited; then you shall know that I am the LORD. 

Boiling Point and Kamikaze

The week ended on June 13, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. Boiling Point and Kamikaze: As I stood back and pondered last week’s attack on Russian’s strategic nuclear assets and this week’s Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, there were two striking similarities. Both involved US on a false pretext of negotiating for a temporary truce and just before the final talks, a stealth preemptive attack. Both involved the smaller country backed by the West that first bombed the larger opponent in an opportunistic move that surly would escalate the battle into a much larger theatre. Readers of this Blog are presumably aware that I tend to lean on my Christian world view of history and as customary allow me to invoke some memories around the close of WWII as a parallel to what just happened.  (Fig. 1).

(i) Kamikaze: "Kamikaze" (神風 in Japanese) primarily refers to the suicide pilots of the Empire of Japan during World War II, who flew aircraft laden with explosives into enemy ships. The genesis of the Pearl Harbor attack on December 7, 1941 was the complete embargo on oil and other vital resources to Japan by US on August 1, 1941.  This embargo severely limited Japan's access to crucial resources like oil, threatening economic stability. Japan relied heavily on US oil imports, with roughly 80% of its supply coming from the US. Japan’s per capital GDP fell sharply despite total mobilization on account of a war economy (Fig. 2).

One of the key strategic error of Japan in WWII was Japan totally underestimated US military industrial capacity (“USMIC”) and speed of recovery after the Pearl Harbor attack.  By October 1944, although Japan was not militarily defeated, on the economic front however, USMIC has demonstrably prevailed over Japan. In a self delusional religious way, Japan then invoked Kamikaze as a last ditched war tacit. (The word "kamikaze" literally translates to "divine wind" in Japanese. It originally referred to a typhoon that is believed to have destroyed a Mongol fleet attempting to invade Japan in the 13th century). (Fig. 3).

Likewise, although Ukraine, Israel and US militarily are somewhat vulnerable, directionally speaking, their economies are facing a waterfall down-slide with no discernible difference but by timing only. With China’s stranglehold on rare earth and critical minerals against military employment in US, the likelihood of US turning the table in a kinetic military contest grows dimmer by the day. With bleak economic prospects, Ukraine and Israel went on a back to back kamikaze rampage against an adversary much bigger than their own respective economy and the only hope is to drag her western backers into the fray. What outcome can we expect ? If history is any guide, from the first kamikaze strike (October 25, 1944) to a final defeat (September 2, 1945) will all happen in less than one year.

(ii) Integrity is the currency for diplomacy: Just nine days after the Trump/Putin call and eight days after Trump/Xi call, the second preemptive strike happened to an important BRICS member and key partner to both Russia and China. How would one interpret the substance of whatever intentions expressed by US to mend relationships between the great powers. When words carry no meaning then there will not be anymore need for diplomacy. In the words of Alexander Solzhenitsyn “Any man who has once proclaimed violence as his method is inevitably forced to take the lie as his principle.” (Fig. 4).

How dark human culture has become when only the unspoken laws of the jungle rules.

(iii) Nuclear Apocalypse: The root meaning of the word “apocalypse” is the unveiling of what has been previously hidden. After the dust settled, Ukraine’s success in Russian’s strategic bombers was reduced from 41 bombers destroyed as claimed by Ukraine to 11 as reported by Radio Liberty and further reduced to 7 as claimed by Russian MOD (6.5% of Russia’s heavy bombers) and only 2 out of 5 airports suffered damages. (Fig. 5).

The international intelligence community understands CIA had set up 20 sites in Ukraine as part of the proxy war effort including a drone station but the specific June “Spider Web” operation was short range AI driven and did not involve NATO’s long range radar, surveillance aircraft or military satellites. (Fig. 6).

So far Russia’s retaliation is still restrained within the Ukraine theater. SIGH!  Turning to the ME theater, immediately after Israel’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, Iran media reported no detection of radiation leakage which was also confirmed by IAEA. This either indicates the Israeli strike did not accomplish its stated objective or Iran never had such nuclear materials. To what extent Iran will retaliate, only Iran knows but in all probability, what happened may well be the last straw.

So it seems we have entered into a period of little dialogue and no guard rails - only selfish interests, no human decency and very little common sense.

2. Financial Market Performance for the year to date to June 13 2025 : (Fig. 7)

Russian Ruble (+37.64%), Gold (+30.84%),  Silver (+25.61%), VIX “Volatility Index” (+22.55%), Hang Seng Index (+19.11%), Copper (+18.73%), Bitcoin (+13.64%), Swiss Fr (+11.91%), Uranium (+11.67%),  Eur(+11.55%), JPY ( +9.1%),  GBP (+8.38%), Nvidia (+5.72%), Nasdaq (+2.98%), Rmb (+1.65%), S&P 500 (+1.62%), Oil (-1.53%), USD Index (-9.53%),  and TSLA (-19.5%).

Once again the Israel Iran war reinforced USD has lost its safe heaven status as gold and oil are bid, stocks dumped and higher resource prices weighed on US Treasuries. White House and US Treasury are freaked out as even with the drums of war are beating very loud in Europe and Middle East, funds are unwilling to seek shelter in US. 

Matthew 24:6  And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. 7  For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places. 8  All these are the beginning of sorrows.