Choke Points, Stranglehold, and Self-Asphyxiation

The week ended on September 26, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. Choke Points, Stranglehold, and Self-Asphyxiation: Since WWII, control of energy production and energy transit choke points has been the most important US Foreign Policy. Hence, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) has meticulously tracked where and how oil and gas are produced and moved. (Fig. 1).

With the default of the Bretton Woods Agreement and the creation of the Petrol Dollar to maintain the Dollar Hegemony, US has doubled down to ensure she stays as the apex predator. Non-submissive regimes are changed (Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and Iran), war is waged (NATO proxy war with Russia) without cost considerations so that America could feel safe that she remains as numero uno. Eighty years has come and gone since WWII and finally the punch bowl party for America has come to and end and even the White House realized her days are numbered. The following are some of the more recent event markers.

(i) Saudi Arabia/Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement: From the Brookings Institute - Even those accustomed to dramatic developments in the Middle East and South Asia were caught off guard by the announcement last week by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan of a new “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.” The pact, formalized with considerable pageantry in Riyadh on September 17 during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit, went far beyond the platitudes that typically characterize cooperative security announcements. It included a sweeping commitment to mutual defense, and although the text was not released, some officials on both sides—including Pakistan’s own minister of defense—intimated that the deal involved the provision of extended nuclear deterrence. (Fig. 2).

The link to the Brookings’ analysis is given here https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-signal-and-substance-of-the-new-saudi-pakistan-defense-pact/ . I just want to highlight, as China has given her full backing to Pakistan and recently agreed to arm Iran with Air Defense Systems, the Saudi Arabia/Pakistan Pact will have a domino effect on power play in the region because by association China in effect is backstopping Pakistan in the deal and is seen as the stabilizing force.

(ii)  Poland reopens its border ports with Belarus: At the behest of UK, Poland applied a stranglehold on the China-Europe railway through her border checkpoint with Belarus. On September 12, the Polish government suddenly announced that it would " indefinitely close" all border crossings with Belarus thus poses a serious threat to the China Europe Rail Link. (Fig. 3)

The China Europe railway links 128 Chinese cities with 26 European Countries and 229 European cities is the most important overland trade route between China and Europe. Since its inception the rail link carried $450 billion worth of merchandise between the two regions. The rail cut short 40% of time it takes for container ships (from 40 days through Cape of Good Hope to 25 days) and cost is 5 times lower than air freight. Poland and her UK backers thought this stranglehold would force China to withdraw her trade with Russia. The choke hold only lasted for 12 days because China had plans B,C & D already lined up to guard against such possibilities. On the afternoon of September 22, a giant container ship called "Istanbul Bridge" completed the loading operation at the port of Zhoushan in Ningbo, and its destination was Europe. But it is not a traditional route, but a new, game-changing channel - Central Europe "Arctic Express". (Fig. 4).

The Arctic Sea Corridor has been in planning for quite sometimes and all the details worked out at the September 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Summit between Russia and China in Tianjin. The Arctic Sea Route further shorten the time for a container to reach Europe than by rail by almost one third. This re-routing together with other rail diversions would put 50,000 Polish jobs at risk and loss of economic value annually of $50 billion to Poland. (Poland 2024 GDP is $914.7 billion). Face with a possible permanent redundancy by the Chinese move, Poland immediately backed down and reopens her border.  Just how many attempts by incompetent politicians to sanction and embargo the Global South before they realized weaponizing trade is a double edged sword and very dangerous to weld. Whilst on the subject of the Arctic Route and the Arctic Region, the attached map shows why the obsession of Trump to make Canada its 51^st State and a takeover of Greenland. (Fig. 5).

With an anticipated growth in merchant fleet through the Arctic, so lies an increased risk of undetected submarine penetration to the Atlantic nations.

(iii) US Confrontation with Venezuela: The Trump administration has declared the start of a military campaign against Venezuelan drug cartels, claiming cocaine smuggling by the “narco-terrorists” poses an imminent threat to the United States. On September 2, Trump announced that U.S. forces struck what he claimed was a Tren de Aragua boat trafficking cocaine to the United States, killing eleven people. To every political and military analyst, the US attack was under a false pretext because (a) a 12 meters long boat with a 200 -horsepower outboard motors cannot travel 3,000 Km from Venezuela to US. (b) Venezuela was never classified as a major narcotics producing country. (c) The boat and passengers posed no threat to the US Naval Vessel. This is political provocation and murder under broad daylight and another example of American Exceptionalism with impunity.  (Fig. 6)

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserve (303 billion barrels) and has suffered relentless attacks from US spanning decades.

(iv) US War Secretary summons military leaders to Virginia mystery meeting: We conclude this week with news of US summoning all top military generals world wide to a sudden meeting in Virginia without an agenda to the invitees. (Fig. 7).

Whilst US Media downplay the unusual meeting as an opportunity to rally the troops (Fig. 8).

 Independent military analysts argued that such a meeting would most likely be a prelude to military budget cuts, closure of outlying military stations and summary dismissals of generals. Last week we reported on a strategic change of direction of Pentagon to pivot to Homeland security and downplay the “China Threats” as there is no money for Washington to build the Golden Dome Defense, renew its aging Naval Fleet and to meet the aerospace military techno challenge of China. Trump’s reluctance and inability to continue as the Global Police is already plain for all to see. With DOGE a failure, a recalcitrant Federal Reserve and a Western duration Bond rout, the axe has finally come to Pentagon. We will know by next week if the knives will be out.

2. Gold is for War and Bitcoin is for Flight: Gold and “Digital Gold (Bitcoin) has begun to diverge. Understand the different user of these two instruments and one may even prosper at times of adversity. The week financial market performance as follows (Fig. 9):

Silver (+7.19%), Oil (+3.49%) , Copper (+2.84%), Gold (+2.09%), Shenzhen Composite Index (+0.87%), DXY (+0.55%), Ruble (+0.15%), S&P 500 (-0.24%), Rmb (-0.25%), Euro (-0.42%), GBP (-0.51%), JPY (-1.05%) and Bitcoin (-5.08%). 

This week saw a weakening of the US Credit market as the subprime auto loan originator Tricolor dressed up as AAA failed in eerie similarity to the fiasco in 2008. JPMorgan Chase and Barclays were also potentially exposed. (Fig. 10).

The entire US Treasury Curve shifted upwards despite the Administration’s desire to have another 150 basis point rate cut before year end. (Fig. 11)

After this week, the frequency of this Blog will be reduced from weekly to fortnightly because I felt I am getting too old to keep pace with everything happening so fast and so unexpectedly. My friends, you should take at easy as well.

Psalms 128:1  Blessed is every one who fears the LORD, Who walks in His ways. 2  When you eat the labor of your hands, You shall be happy, and it shall be well with you. 3  Your wife shall be like a fruitful vine In the very heart of your house, Your children like olive plants All around your table. 4  Behold, thus shall the man be blessed Who fears the LORD. 5  The LORD bless you out of Zion, And may you see the good of Jerusalem All the days of your life. 6  Yes, may you see your children's children. Peace be upon Israel! 

 

 

The Fall of MICIMATT (The Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank Complex):

The week ended on September 19, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. The Fall of MICIMATT (The Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank Complex): In a speech of less than 10 minutes, on January 17, 1961, President Dwight Eisenhower delivered his political farewell to the American people on national television from the Oval Office of the White House. Those who expected the military leader and hero of World War II to depart his Presidency with a nostalgic, "old soldier" speech like Gen. Douglas MacArthur's, were surprised at his strong warnings about the dangers of the "military-industrial complex." (Fig. 1).

It took a long 65 years to see the US Military-Industrial Complex finally collapse under its own weight in September 2025. A long 65 years because the beast in the intervening period has morphed to encompass a vast conglomerate of elite vested interests that has sucked the entire economies of the west dry and began auto-cannibalization. I am sure historians will devote reams of studies on the rise and fall of MICIMATT but here at this Blog I am primarily interested to identify directional changing markers and actionable positioning as a matter for self preservation.

John Connolly, the 61^st United States secretary of the treasury once said “The US Dollar is our currency but your problem” has candidly pointed out the absurdity of the present world system lies with American Exceptionalism. (Fig. 2).

American exceptionalism is the belief that the United States is either distinctive, unique, or exemplary compared to other nations. I have enunciated many times in this Blog, US could get away with a lot of bad behaviour only because of TINA (“There is No Alternative”). Now one by one, the facade of TINA is torn apart and the emperor is found naked.

(i) The Military-Industrial Complex (“MIC”): The May 7 2025 Pakistan-India air combat was a rude awakening to both buyers and sellers of advanced weapon systems. Pakistan was forbidden by US to use the F-16 she bought for self defense and the integrated Chinese J-10C, PL-15E, HQ-9 and ZDK-03 scored a perfect 6-0 against Europe’s best Rafale and other fighters. The final straw was when Israel struck Qatar last week and Qatar's air defense systems all went silent. (Fig. 3).

The overt ban and covert sabotage has done irreparable damage to the US-MIC. No country from this point, except may be US vassal states, would dare to put their trust to align with the US-MIC. The new realignment would naturally fall with the Global South and principally with China and Russia. The implication is more than just weapons trade and money flows because with weapon system purchases it will come with maintenance, training, cooperation and alliances.

(ii) Intelligence - Coming back to the attempted assassination of HAMAS negotiators in Doha, the fact that all HAMAS leaders escaped indicated there was a serious Mossad-CIA-Pentagon intelligence leak. (Fig. 4).

What was not commonly reported in Western MSM was all the HAMAS negotiators vacated the bomb site to another building but left their cell phones in situ.  (Fig. 5).

(iii) Media - We all know Tik Tok has threatened US Social Media giants like Facebook, Instagram and Youtube because Tik Tok does not politically censor its contents. Well after the Trump Xi phone call on Friday, Trump claimed there is a deal to Americanize Tik Tok, REALLY? Well the establishment mouth piece Politico does not think so. (Fig. 6).

(iv) Big Tech - This week Intel may be bailed out financially after US Government and Nvidia pumped billions into the company. (Fig. 7).

However it is no closer to be able to make high end chips in the same league as TSMC, Samsung or SMIC. In twisting Nvidia’s arms to invest in Intel, White House inadvertently slam shut a door for Nvidia against the world’s biggest semiconductor market - China. China has been user friendly to American Corporations but has been extremely cautious against fascist corporations. Previously China has declined Nvidia’s watered down H20 AI chips and this week Huawei just announced plans to roll out the world’s most powerful AI chip clusters. (Fig. 8).

All this is on the back of Huawei and SMIC will shortly mass produce 3nm chips without Western monopolistic controlled EUV Lithographic machines. (Fig. 9).

Unquestionably, TINA no more.

On another front, the jury is still out on AI modelling between various US and Chinese contenders. Herewith one of the newest technical analysis from the pros. (Fig. 10)

(v) The Simplistic View of the End Game: One of my favourite Fund Manager, Luke Gromen asks (my paraphrase) Who backs the Dollar Hegemony? The US Military. Who backs the US Military? The US Military-Industrial Complex. Who controls the supply chain to the Military-Industrial Complex? China with its rare earth, parts and components. Just three critical minerals which China has a near monopoly would mean (a) Germanium (90%+ controlled by China) - Pentagon’s estimate is 12,277 parts and components have to be sourced from China (b) Gallium (98%+)  - 11,351 parts and components are China dependent and (c ) Antimony (50%) - 6,335 parts and components are China dependent. Without rare earth and components and parts from China, US will not be able to produce, maintain and definitely not in scale, rockets, missiles, radars, stealth coating and her most advanced weapon systems. And US wants to target China as its number one adversary?

Last week a National Defense Strategy was tabled by Pentagon to deprioritise 'China threats,'  to focuses on Western Hemisphere. (Fig. 11).

It was Winston Churchill who said “America will always do the right thing - after exhausting all the alternatives”. (Fig. 12).

This time I am afraid it will be too late.

2. Follow The Money: May things have happened in less than 3 weeks in September. Let’s see how events have played out in the financial markets. (Fig. 13)

Silver (+8.61%), Gold (+6.87%), Bitcoin (+5.82%), S&P 500 (+2.97%), Shenzhen Composite Index (+2.76%), Copper (+1.48%), Euro (+0.44%), Rmb (+0.27%), DXY (-0.20%), GBP (-0.24%), JPY (-0.62%), Oil (-1.81%) and Ruble (-4.35%).

On the week after the long awaited Federal Reserve cut in Fed Funds rate of 25 basis points (with expectation of two more cuts within 2025), there was no jubilation in the US stock indexes but an acceleration into hard assets. The US Dollar Index witnessed further weakness but was salvaged by even worse performance in the British Pound and Japanese Yen.

Superficially, the Treasury Yield Curve behaved as is expected with a lowering of yield across the entire spectrum of maturities after the Fed rate cut. (Fig. 14).

What is hidden is US Treasury is still enjoying low rate notes and bonds issued in the period of QE and ZIRP. The average interest rate paid as of September 30, 2024 was a low of 3.32%. according to US Treasury Fiscal Data. As these low rate paper matures, interest rates to be paid will at least be 30% higher on a much bigger debt base. (Fig. 15).

In FY 2024/2025 interest expense plus mandatory payments like social entitlement programs, Medicare and Medicaid ran at about 80% of Federal Tax Receipts. With a continued $2 trillion budget, stock market AI valuation hyped into stratosphere and business disruptions by Trump tariff tantrums, I have previously stated and am maintaining my forecast that by end 2026 at the latest US will default or print to hyperinflation.

Every night the US money market is playing musical chairs on a scale of $2.9 trillion to square off banks and hedge funds that are short in funds - the SOFR inter-bank arrangement (Fig. 16).

Allow me to repeat the danger zone will be when SOFR to M1 approaches 30%. (Fig. 17).

There is also no redemption of the system using Stable Coins. The Genius Act and Stable Coins is a con game to benefit crony coin issuers. No substantial investor in their sane mind will part with their collaterizable assets in favour of a non-bankable token. Jim Richards said Stable Coin is just an unregulated money market fund. In the 2008 GFC, when the MM Funds broke the buck, the entire financial market seized up because assets in the MM Funds were corrupted by subprime papers fictitiously marked as investment grade. Stable Coins will be worst because there is no audit, no regulations and no prudential supervision whatsoever.

Let me conclude on a more optimistic note, tension between US and China should ease. After all  no nation is to be trusted farther than it is bound by its interests. (Fig. 18).

Matthew 5:25  Agree with your adversary quickly, while you are on the way with him, lest your adversary deliver you to the judge, the judge hand you over to the officer, and you be thrown into prison. 26  Assuredly, I say to you, you will by no means get out of there till you have paid the last penny. 

Gloves Off

The week ended on September 12, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

Gloves Off: The third quarter of 2025 had a turbulent start. In the East, China kicked off with a successful SCO Summit and a jaw dropping 93 Military Parade.  At the other spectrum the globalist cabal had multiple political assassinations and the prime ministers of Japan and France resigned in chaos. To all students of Geo-politics, the rhythm of war drums is loud and scary.

(i) Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar: Thursday strike in Qatar was a wake up call to all US allies in the sense that a “useful” idiot to US is treated in exactly the same way as any idiots - no preferential treatment or slightest security considerations. Qatar was only notified by US after the strike. (Fig. 1).

What was not reported in Western MSM was even worse - moments before being bombed by Israel, a strange thing happened: Qatar's air defense systems all went silent. This is despite Qatar has spent a fortune on US arms deals. There's the Patriot-3 for medium- and high-altitude interception, the NASAMS for short- and medium-range coverage, the FS-LIDS for drone defense, and the recently ordered THAAD system, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. (Fig. 2).

(ii) Charlie Kirk: The assassination of Charlie Kirk may be one of those mysteries like JFK that we truth will never be revealed. The facts are retired Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor much earlier reported that Kirk’s Turning Point USA received $40 million from Pro Israeli donors yet at times he was critical of US support of Israel from a MAGA perspective. Kirk was professionally exterminated with a single kill shot from a distance with a high caliber precision rifle and the FBI has no clue. Compared this to the attempted assassination of Trump in Pennsylvania where the assailant was killed on the spot, his corpse cremated two days later and relevant information on the attacker purged. Respected analysts warned the assassination of Charlie Kirk was designed more to send a signal to PONTUS that any betrayal of the Zionist movement would be dealt with without mercy. Guess which terrorists group has been running very successful decapitate programs on national leaders. (Fig. 3)

(iii) 7 Anti-Ukraine War Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Candidates died before election: As many as six candidates for Germany's far-right AfD have died in recent weeks ahead of local elections in the big western state of North Rhine-Westphalia. (Fig. 4)

The up and coming anti-Ukraine War party has been rising in popularity to oust the war hawk Merz Government. No foul play they say but it is certainly eerie.

(iv) French hospitals told to prepare for war in Europe by next year in leaked Government letter: In a letter sent to regional health agencies, revealed by Le Canard Enchaîné , the Ministry of Health asked hospitals to prepare for a “major (military) engagement” by March 2026. The newspaper warned that between 10,000 and 50,000 men could be expected in hospitals over a period of 10 to 180 days. (Fig. 5)

Gerald Celente, the world’s renounce Trend Forecaster repeated says “When all else fails, they take you to war” (Fig. 6).

If you are familiar with the technique of “Follow the Money” you already know the bond market and the precious metals market is brewing for something BIG, watch and pray. 

Luke 21:34  "But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life, and that Day come on you unexpectedly. 35  For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. 36  Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man." 

The Return of The King

The week ended on September 5, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

The Return of The King: With 1.92 billion views, China’s Victory Day Military Parade ( “CVDMP”) would certainly gone down in history as the most watched global life broadcast. One of the open source intelligence tracked was the Pentagon Pizza Index. Pentagon Pizza Index was born out of Cold war and dubbed 'Pizzint' (short for pizza intelligence), the surges in late-night orders to government buildings like the Pentagon and CIA headquarters, were tracked, assuming the staffers pulled all-nighters on crisis planning. Pizzint certainly spiked at exactly the hours of CVDMP broadcast. (Fig. 1).

It was reported after Trump’s birthday parade he was angry with Hegseth because the US parade did not set the right tone and wasn’t menacing. (Fig. 2).

I am sure after CVDMP Trump was even more pixxed, because CVDMP did have the desired effect, comforting to China’s friends and alarming for her adversaries.   

(i) Peace Through Strength: At the CVDMP China show cased at least 15 China first or World first , weapon systems which I, a casual observer and not militarily literate, would classified into 3 major categories (Fig. 3).

(a) Full complement of drone and robotic offensive and defensive weapon systems for conventional warfare without equals (b) Full complement of land, sea and air launched nuclear capable hyper-sonic missiles and torpedoes with a global reach and (c) Unmatched AD/2A (Anti-Access Area Denial) air power through fighter jets, bombers and missiles integrated with surveillance and reconnaissance ground and aerial systems with a reach far exceeding any adversaries’ Carrier Battle Group’s attack range.  Worthy to mention is  Dongfeng-61 intercontinental ballistic missile rumored to have a speed of up to Mach 55, a reach of 40,000 Km and each DF61 equipped with 18 independently targetable nuclear warheads with each warhead hosting destructive powers of 7X the “Little Boy” in Hiroshima. Just one warhead can destroy a city the size of San Francisco. (Fig. 4).

China's nuclear doctrine is centered on a policy of no-first-use and minimum nuclear deterrence, meaning it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons only in retaliation for a nuclear strike and maintains a nuclear arsenal sufficient only for self-defense and deterring a preemptive nuclear strike against China. The DF 61 appropriately fit this concept. With such a display of military capability, China message to the world is clear, let commercial competition stay pure but anyone should think hard to attempt a gunboat mercantilism. I hope this theater of Peace through Strength will be received loud and clear lest blindsided war hawks should cross the red-line.

(ii) Financial Reset: This week the alternative media is also buzzing with the notion of a “Financial Reset” has begun. First UK Gilt30YR has dropped to a thirty year low as uncertainty on UK debt death loop lingers. (Fig. 5).

Similarly interest rate on JGB30YR spiked to a historical high (Fig. 6),

like a Sword of Damocles overhanging the participants of the Yen Carry Trade. The use of Japanese Yen leverage to prop up a strong dollar and overpriced stocks are coming fast to a conclusion. However,  the wake up call is in the acceleration of valuation of hard assets like BTC and previous metals as ultra high networth individuals, family offices and funds ditched USD. (Fig. 7).

Make no mistake, this is not a rise of China, nor Crypto, nor Gold but a Return of The King and the Usurper is on its way out.

Psalms 2:1  Why do the nations rage, And the people plot a vain thing? 2  The kings of the earth set themselves, And the rulers take counsel together, Against the LORD and against His Anointed, saying,3  "Let us break Their bonds in pieces And cast away Their cords from us." 4  He who sits in the heavens shall laugh; The LORD shall hold them in derision. 5  Then He shall speak to them in His wrath, And distress them in His deep displeasure: 6  "Yet I have set My King On My holy hill of Zion."7  "I will declare the decree: The LORD has said to Me, 'You are My Son, Today I have begotten You.8  Ask of Me, and I will give You The nations for Your inheritance, And the ends of the earth for Your possession. 9  You shall break them with a rod of iron; You shall dash them to pieces like a potter's vessel.' " 10  Now therefore, be wise, O kings; Be instructed, you judges of the earth.11  Serve the LORD with fear, And rejoice with trembling.12  Kiss the Son, lest He be angry, And you perish in the way, When His wrath is kindled but a little. Blessed are all those who put their trust in Him.