Connecting the Trump Dots

The week ended on November 16, 2024, interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. Connecting the Trump Dots: Early this week, I sent out a news clipping to my circle of friends regarding Trump shutting doors for Pompeo and Haley to join his Administration. I was optimistic that the Trump announcement could mean distancing the White House in 2025 from the Neo Cons and Zionists. Looking at Trump’s staff appointments and nominations over the balance of the week, many critics jumped to the conclusion that there was no lack of Neo Cons and Zionists amongst those Trump picked. Yet on careful analysis, there were clever planning in Trump’s selection and I like to devote the next few paragraphs as to table my assessment.

(i) Who’s who in Trump’s Pick: (Fig. 1) is my best attempt to classify major Trump’s pick into three groupings of Neo Cons, Zionists and Non-Aligned.  

Of the 15 members that comprise a US President’s cabinet, the appointments so far are two Neo Cons, one Zionists and Four Non-Aligned (nominations incomplete and continuing). It is worthwhile to note that the UN Ambassador, Ambassador to Israel and Special Envoy to the Middle East are all Zionists and I suppose that should appease the Zionists. Nonetheless, all these appointments are under the direction of the Secretary of State and Marco Rubio is not a himself a Zionists but a die hard anti Cuban, anti Venezuelan War Hawk. Turning to the Foreign Policy aspects of Trump’s pick, the Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor and Director of CIA are all Neo Cons, yet Marco Rubio has been sanctioned by China which makes any visit by Rubio to China impossible. So it is likely that the relationship management with China will be Trump himself through his National Security Advisor. Now the National Security Advisor in waiting is Mike Waltz. Though Mike is a strong advocate of MAGA and and is a stern opponent to China, he does not belong to the Military Industrial Complex. Being a former Green Beret and Colonel in the US Army, his security briefing to the President should be more factual than ideological? Rubio is there to appease the Neo Cons and to keep up the verbal abuse of China yet not close enough to start a fire fight. The Director of CIA was a former Director of National Intelligence. I think Trump picked John Ratcliffe for the post more to drain the swamp of the Deep State.

(ii) Loyalty over Competence: It is obvious that Trump’s pick is loyalty over competence. The big question is even allowing for all nominations to be endorsed by the US Senate. Will Trump’s appointees be capable to fight in each of their respective domain the deeply entrenched Deep States and Shadow Government? Even armed with the most powerful position in the world, Trump 1.0 could not overcome the Deep State and the Shadow Government in his 4 year term in the oval office. In fact, one misstep with The MAGA team,  Trump could loose the mid-term election and the control of Congress be back in the hands of his adversaries putting Trump in a lame duck posture. Such is the sad saga of American democratic process. Our continued surveillance and recognizance is therefore unavoidable.

(iii) Trump’s Broad Policy Direction: According to James Rickards, multiple NYT best sellers author, advisor to the Pentagon and CIA and Hedge Fund Manager, Rickards correctly predicted a Trump victory with a deadly accurate of 312 Electoral College Votes, 54 Senate Seats and control of Congress, Trump will follow the tried and tested conservative American System found in early American development. The American System has 4 strong pillars: (a) High Tariff to protect local producers, (b) Strong Military (for defense and deterrence), (c) Strong Infrastructure and (d) Strong Central Bank to provide liquidity but not to set economic policies. Trump will ditch multilateral agreements in favor of bilateral agreements and use tariff as a weapon to bully weaker states. My opinion is the used by date of such notions of strength has past and the effectiveness of such off the cuff approach will fail as in Trump 1.0. One obvious soft spot of the whole American System is all the good intentions embodied in the 4 Pillars would backfire so long as Trump insists on holding onto the Dollar Hegemony. The theory behind my assertion is called “Triffin Paradox” (Fig. 2)

(iv) Triffin Paradox: The Triffin Paradox was identified by economist Robert Triffin in 1960s and states using a country’s national currency as an international reserve currency are in conflict. To feed the growth of international liquidity and reserve requirement, the issuing country must continue to increase its trade and payment deficits which eventually will lead to economic instability of the issuing host. Sure enough 10 years after Robert Triffin published his book “Gold and The Dollar Crisis” US defaulted in her Bretton Wood’s obligation in 1971. (Fig. 3 with narration by the IMF).

What we experienced today in terms of De-dollarization is nothing new nor all of a sudden Russia and China turned hostile to the West. The unnatural part is US doubling down to maintain the Dollar Hegemony through destabilization of other economies by color revolution, proxy wars and direct military regime change.

(v) Land Mines and Bobby Traps: Over two thirds of US GDP is in the services sector, the government sector alone is one third and private sector health care is another 7%. Cutting $2 trillion off Federal deficits as advocated by Elon Musk would immediately trigger a recession. In our analysis two weeks ago, an economic recession would immediately tilt government tax receipts below those required for mandatory payments of interests, social and healthcare entitlements. When that happens, a capital flight away from US is guaranteed irrespective of how enticing interest rate offerings the Federal Reserve may furnish.There is, however, a narrow window when some of Trump’s tactics may be executed but that requires the Federal Debt problem be dealt with first. Interests payments must be significantly reduced through sharply lowered interest rates and the USD exchange value weakened extensively to reduce import consumption. In other words, once in the Oval Office, Trump first diet is humble pie to recondition the American economic physique for a robust restructuring 6 to 12 months down the road. In all probability Trump first move would likely be strong arm tactics and have other countries pay for American excesses. Consequently, there is more than 50% chance of an economic collapse by second quarter of 2025.

Connecting the Trump dots is, I admit speculative and conjectural. Yet in the face of a contrived euphoric and extreme risky financial market environment I felt compelled to counter the prevailing narrative. May I invite readers to share your thoughts and how one should handle situations as such.

2. Financial Market Performance for the Week as follows (Fig. 4): Bitcoin (+19.42%), Uranium (+ 8.11%), USD Index (+1.60%), CNY (-0.72%), JPY (-1.10%), Dow (-1.40%), AUD (-1.82%), GBP (-2.29%), S&P 500 (-2.30%), Rubble (-2.41%), Silver (-3.35%), Nasdaq (-3.58%), Oil (-4,22%), Gold (-4.62%), Vix (-4.91%) and Copper (-5.77%).

I explained last week the Anglo American Cabal has pulled no punches to paint the tape that a Trump win would mean the mighty America is back because the Dollar is strong, stock market is up and Vix (Volatility Index), Precious Metals and Commodities are down implying there is certainty in the financial markets and Happy Days have returned.

Well, the figures have come in and what happened was the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisory Funds) have emptied their chest of Precious Metals and Commodities derivatives in favor of Bitcoin. (Fig. 5)

However big Macro Discretionary have held their long positions in Precious Metals and unmoved by their price decline. All the while the bullion banks took the opportunity to cover their short positions. Now CTA traditionally are where high net worth individuals park their money for commodity plays but because of their known algorithms and use of high leverage and HFT derivatives techniques, CTAs were frequently used by the Exchange Stabilization Fund to hide their market manipulations - deniability, small capital employed to produce a loud short term bang. One more Trump dot for you to consider.

Jeremiah13:23 Can the Ethiopian change his skin or the leopard its spots? Then may you also do good who are accustomed to do evil.

Wars and Rumors of Wars

The week ended on November 9, 2024, interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. Wars and Rumors of Wars: The world expects that a Trump win in the US Presidential Election will mean an end to the Ukraine and Israeli conflicts. Even assuming Trump will fulfill his election promise, we still have 72 days between now and Trump’s inauguration, please take note a week in politics is already a long time. (Fig. 1).

Let’s take inventory of the many factors involved and perhaps we all can better plan our next steps.

(i) US$100 million Trump took from Miriam Andelson: (Fig. 2):

Some critics say Trump took $100 million from Miriam Andelson (the wealthiest Israeli in the world) in exchange for a pledge to expand Israeli territory.  It will therefore be difficult for Trump to back out. To Trump’s luck, Andelson’s donation ranked only third after Timothy Mellon (NY Mellon Bank Dynasty) and Elon Musk (both non Jews) so Trump’s hands may not be as tied to the Zionists as some may think. Nonetheless, I learn sometime ago that profiling who backs a politician is as important if not more than profiling the politician himself. In all the extensions of the Old British Empire, a right to govern is simplified to a two horse race between a two political party setup.  This arrangement was emanated from Cecil Rhodes’ “Round Table” design in the 1800s. In US, the “Round Table” is the Council on Foreign Relations. In UK, the “Round Table” is the Institute of International Affairs where elites of apparent opposing political parties together sit. This “Pro-Wrestling - Round Table” arrangement extends to over 90 international associations and together they aspire for world domination. The key to Democracy, particularly in 5Eyes countries is in the contest for Nomination but not in the voting of which two finalist talking heads. For readers interested to read further on the subject of realpolitik, I suggest Professor Carroll Quigley’s “Tragedy and Hope” and “The Anglo-American Establishment” (Fig. 3 with narrations from Amazon.com).

Professor Quigley was an insider of the Council on Foreign Relations and amongst his students, top US Administration officials and even a former US President.

(ii) Zionism: I often received video clips from my old classmate chat group on Jewish conspiracies. These videos often mistook the genocide happening in Gaza had its roots in ancient religions associated with the Jews. This is far from the truth. Half of the Jews in Israel today have no religious affiliation (Fig. 4).

These Aliyah Jews were refugees from the Nazis after WWII or refugees from the former Soviet Union after the collapse of the Communist Bloc in 1990. (Fig. 5).

Their hearts were hardened by the hardship they suffered and their quest for survival trumps all other moral and humanistic consideration. In fact the orthodox Judaism rejects Zionism (Fig. 6).

To distinguish the Orthodox Jews from he Aliyah Jews, the Aliyah Jews are called “Settlers”. The philosophy of Zionism is not unique to the reestablishment of nationhood of Israel but in a wider movement called “Settler Colonialism”.  Settler Colonialists were Europeans who were outcast from Europe, Jews or otherwise. Though Europeans outside of Europe, these “Settlers” want to be part of Europe and intend to build themselves a European nation in areas where they eventually settled. This they achieve by genocide of the indigenous population, the Red Indians in North America, the First Nation in Canada, the Aboriginals in Australia, the Moriori genocide in New Zealand, the Kanaka Hawai of Hawaii, the Stepan Bendaran Nazis cleansing of ethnic Russians in Ukraine since 2014 with the latest, the Gazan genocide. Jewish historians like Professor Ilan Pappé described early Zionists were comprised of 4 different groups of people: (a) Jewish financiers like the Rothschild who has economic and business interests in a Israeli Project to carve out a piece of the Middle East under “European” settlers’ control, (b) British Imperialists who want to usurp the former Ottoman Empire and claim sovereignty over the Easter Mediterranean regions., (c) Anglo Jewish Aristocrats in Great Britain who wants to divert the persecuted Jews from Europe to Palestine and away from UK and (d) a deviant branch of Evangelicals in US, particularly certain elites in politics and finance with a heretic understanding of the second coming of the Messiah. These 4 groups although at times had conflicting interests,they all found expedient to support the Israeli Project and Zionism. The common description of this group is “Globalist” or the “Cabal”. Ever wonder why today the Zionists are up in arms against civilizations that have a long history but never been colonized like China, Russia and Iran.

(iii) Deep State & Shadow Government: Deep State are non-elected high ranking officials that have different loyalties, agendas and priorities than upholding the Constitution and governance for the benefits of the public at large. Shadow Government are the king makers that control elected officials in a quasi democracy. Many people are hopeful that Trump 2.0 will fare better than Trump 1.0. I remain skeptical because it will take 8 to 10 years at least to drain the swamp.

(iv) Open Defiance of the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is neither Federal nor does it have any reserve. In fact last week we reported that the Fed is trading fraudulently with a negative net worth of US$150 million. (Fig 7).

Take a look at the hubristic terse response Powell gave to Journalists on the question of a request for his resignation. (Video).

I expect Trump will be fighting fires even before he enters the Oval Office. The principal shareholders of the Fed are the Rockefeller and the Rothschild Dynasties. David Rockefeller was a self declared Globalists (Fig. 8), I guess nothing short of a revolution or civil war could turn America around. 

With all of the above factors, I could only summarize in one word the status of US politics - “chaos”. There will be no peace until the Prince of Peace returns. Take heed that you be not deceived.

2. Financial Market Performance for the Week as follows (Fig. 9):

Bitcoin (+10.59%), Nasdaq (+5.36%), Dow (+4.62%), S&P 500 (+4.54%), Oil (+1.19%), Rubble (+0.83%), USD Index (+0.61%), AUD (+0.36%), JPY (+0.23%), GBP (-0.05%),  CNY (-0.80%), Copper (-0.83%), Euro (-1.09%), Gold (-1.83%), Silver (-3.35%) and Uranium (-4.15%).

The election week was a major circus display of what the Anglo Americans wants you to think. In the two months leading up to the US Presidential Election, SPX was not allowed to drop and trade within a narrow band. The legacy MSM, such as Wapo and NYT, for decades had endorsed the Democrats then silently chose to remain neutral. Voting fraud slowed to a trickle and Trump declared a winner. Then on election day, all stocks and DXY exploded sky high, precious metals suppressed and Bitcoin was bid to stratosphere as a diversion. Bonds were dumped to herald a time of “risk on” and happy days are here again. I will know more by next week what positions the CTA and Macro Hedge Funds took but typically such highly leveraged, high frequency short bursts of derivative algo driven fire power to paint the tape won’t last. As I predicted last week volatility reigned. I present below another chart using the vectors captured in Fig. 9 above but incorporating VIX (Volatility Index, the Purple Line at the bottom which showed a whooping -25.2%), you can see everything else paled by comparison (Fig. 10)

Luke 21:34  "But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life, and that Day come on you unexpectedly. 35  For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. 36  Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man."