It is New Year’s Eve 2022, may the Lord bless you all with Peace, Joy and Contentment as we will surely need God’s presence in what may be a roller coaster 2023. Here’s what I think we can expect:
1. Continued Lies and Deception by elected leaders: We are in an era of faked news and for insecure political leaders (whether in “democratic” US/UK or tyrannical Ukraine) truth is suppressed via “misinformation” censorship. Half truth fills the MSM because controlling the narrative is political survival. (Fig. 1) headlined “China unveils a surprising new weapon in its information war against the West”.
The weapon is “discursive multipolarity”; In an era of “post-truth” meaning public opinion is shaped not by facts but by emotions, China without overthrowing the West’s “discursive hegemony”. used the West information assets to display an alternative. Since 2018 China stepped up her effort in this regard by not just fighting false accusations but by providing an alternative to the “rule based international order” through “Community of common destiny for mankind,人类命运共同体”.A rule based international order is just a rhetorical device implying China is breaking established rules. These rules were never clearly defined but in fact were made up as and when the Anglo American Empire so chooses. “Community of common destiny” on the other hand is what China has been practising for decades in substance with aids, investment and trade and can be immediately identified and sympathized. The result has been remarkable if we just take a look at the G20 line up between the two camps. But before we do that, one of the greatest deception before us is we have been led to believed that a country’s strength and prowess can be solely judged by its nominal GDP, hence the Anglo American Alliances (“AAA”) is all dominating hands down. (Fig. 2)
On nominal GDP terms Russia is but 2% of Global GDP vs AAA’s 51% hence given draconian financial and economic sanctions and the combined NATO’s military might, Russia should crumble within months. The thinking the US led NATO was Russia produces 10 million barrels of crude per day and at the pre-conflict price level of $70 per barrel, the global economy of $101 trillion can surely can take an annual $255 billion hit (0.25% of Global Nominal GDP) for one year at most. Sadly Western politicians are mostly lawyers or political science graduates, so very few understand each barrel of oil went missing means energy equivalence of 12.5 years of hard labour hours. With misguided and narrow mind sets, no wonder rule by the West is in such chaos. Now a better measure of comparative strength of nations is Purchase Price Parity, stripping out pricing effect between countries. A simple illustration is using a $3 million Patriot Air Defense Missiles to intercept a $20,000 Russian Iranian Kamikaze Drone in Ukraine will add 150 times more GDP to US than Russia, but is it relevant ? On this basis, the G20 East and West line up indeed looks very different using PPP as a basis(Fig. 3)
No amount of lies and propaganda can change the course of evolution to a multipolar world and we expect in 2023 the West will continue to fight against this trend and even double down to resist the evolution from happening. So be prepared for a deception galore to come.
2. The Big Bust: My friend and ex colleague sent to our chat group the economic outlook of the top banks from US, Europe and Asia. (Fig. 4)
Whilst I am still reading and digesting the contents, the immediate feeling I got, especially from the Wall Street Big Guns is don’t fight the Fed, interest rate will stay high around 5% for 2023 and recession in US is probable but manageable. For past two consecutive weeks I wrote about the surreal US finances. I did some more homework on 45 Years of US Treasury Yield Curve involving over 60,000 data points(Fig. 5) and found only on 5 occasions did serious yield inversion happened.
Three incidents happened on shorter duration and all related to credit and currency events, 1991 after the Japanese Bubble Economy gone bust, 2000 after the Dot Com bubble and 2008 at the Sub-prime Fiasco. (Fig. 6).
One event was of long duration of 27 months with extreme Yield Curve Inversion. The Event was the USD crisis in full bloom which began in August 1978 and ended in March 1981. This was brought on by a default of the Bretton Woods Agreement. The 2022 deep Yield Curve Inversion has the same shape and depth as the 1978 incident. The market is alerting to a similar credit and currency event of yet another US Default around the second quarter of 2023. So be forewarned.
If you need further corroborative evidence please take a look at:
(i) (Fig. 7), the waterfall mounting losses at the Federal Reserve, from weekly average earnings of $1.6 billion to weekly losses of $18 billion.
(ii) (Fig.8) the false Quantitative Tapering accounting and covert QE using Reverse Repo. RR conveniently disguised $2 trillion + of printing, and is happening every 24 hours non-stop.
(iii) (Fig. 9), the humongous quantity of Gold purchases by Official Financial Institutions in November 2022 shattering all records for 55 years as reported by the World Gold Council. The historic purchase 55 years ago was in 1967 which led to a collapse of the London Gold Pool and eventual default of the Bretton Woods Agreement by the Anglo American Empire.
3. Hyperinflation: The causes of Inflation may be cost push, demand pull or supply disruptions but hyperinflation has always been monetary events. (Fig. 10) is a picture of reported inflation of G20 nations.
(Fig. 11) is a similar picture showing effective yield of 10 Year Government Bonds adjusted for inflation. Negative yield are shown in brackets and in red.
With global de-dollarization in full rage the Biden Administration still seemed oblivious to the changing world circumstances and just signed another $1.7 trillion spending bill (Fig. 12).
It is simple arithmetic that the Federal Reserve needs to start printing real soon or the US Government will default. The volume involved is beyond cosmetics and white wash through creative accounting. When that happens, be prepared for cronies of AAA to follow every footstep and a global tsunami of debauched currencies is guaranteed.
4. Ukraine Conflict: Fig. 13 shows Putin’s intentions for Ukraine.
Ukraine will likely be carved up by Russia, Poland and certain parts to declare Independence but politically neutral. The nation of Ukraine would be reduced to the Oblast of Kiev, denazified, demilitarized, land locked and politically neutral. The white lines on the map depicts what the original Ukraine looks like before the 2014 Maidan colour revolution. It is draconian and will be very bloody. I do not know the future but with Russia facing an existential threat, this war would be long and hard and a prelude to WWIII. I do not expect to see a nuclear contest in 2023 but am certain we are migrating closer by the day. Do remember always the name of our Savior is Jesus Christ.
Revelation 6:1 Now I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals; and I heard one of the four living creatures saying with a voice like thunder, "Come and see." 2 And I looked, and behold, a white horse. He who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.3 When He opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, "Come and see."4 Another horse, fiery red, went out. And it was granted to the one who sat on it to take peace from the earth, and that people should kill one another; and there was given to him a great sword.5 When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, "Come and see." So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. 6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine."7 When He opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come and see." 8 So I looked, and behold, a pale horse. And the name of him who sat on it was Death, and Hades followed with him. And power was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword, with hunger, with death, and by the beasts of the earth.
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