Blood Feuds, Parallel Retaliation and Shadows of WWI

Week ended August 11, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. Blood Feuds, Parallel Retaliation and Shadows of WWI: (Fig. 1) The headline in RT reads, “Niger’s neighbors approve military intervention”.

What Geo-political impact does the overthrow of a military junta in one of the poorest landlocked country in West Africa has on the Global Power Conflict? Niger’s per capita GDP of $533 in 2022 ranked 172 out of 179 countries. 80% of Niger’s land area lies in the Sahara but as far as my temperature gauge is concerned, the Niger Coup and the international players involved, may be just the fuse that will light up WWIII. The whole story and all its innuendos needs a few paragraph to develop and for what is worth, please hear me out. 

(i) Niger, timeline and persons of interests: Niger’s coup broke out on July 26, 2023 according to Wikipedia and that was when MSM reported as happened. Two weeks later on August 10 Victoria Nuland arrived at Niger and threatened an American invasion if Niger did not return to “constitutional order”. (Fig. 2).

Let’s not forget Nuland is a war hawk and second in command in the US State Department. She was the principal architect of Ukraine’s neo-nazi coup in 2014 and once Biden secured his seat in the White House, Nuland pushed Ukraine to war with Russia. Now of course she sounded all tough in front of the western press but her bluff was called by third ranked officers in Niger. Basically Niger told US should take home their foreign aid and instead helped Nuland with a weight loss program. (Fig. 3).

Now Niger is a country so poor, its military does not have fighter jets, not even tanks yet with 1,000 US Military personnel stationed there. It is notable here that the USA has not officially declared military rule as a 'coup'. If it does, it will be legally able to stop millions of dollars in military and other kinds of assistance. So what is story here? According to Larry Johnson, ex CIA and independent Military Analyst, the coup in Niger happened in April 2023 from entries in the CIA Factbook. (Fig. 4)

allowing Larry to conclude either France and America really waited over three months to raise a stink about the coup in Niger or the CIA is completely incompetent? Larry’s web page is now blocked by Google but for readers who like to follow the thread, here is the linkhttps://sonar21.com/niger-coup-a-contrived-crisis-or-a-major-cia-goof-and-my-interview-on-a-russian-morning-show/

(ii) Grand Chess Master and Parallel Retaliation - Whilst the West is asleep regarding what Trump once called the “Shxxhole Countries” (Fig. 5)

Russia and China have been busy uniting the long oppressed former colonized counties. Putin in particular is an expert in Parallel Retaliation meaning retaliations not in the form of an eye for an eye but he would hit his enemy in areas not well guarded but where it would really hurts. On July 27, 2023 Putin held the Russia African Leaders Summit in St. Petersburg to rally support for his existential war with NATO with a package of free grain and loan cancellation (Fig. 6).

The following day, Prigozhin came out to give the Russian interpretation of the coup. “Economics was the main driver as France gave only 5% of its profits to all the resources extracted from Niger and left Niger in stark poverty”. (Fig. 7).

I can imagine after Putin and Prigozhin’s overture in Africa, only then the US State Department suddenly found themselves in an ‘Oh Shxx! moment” and quickly dusted off the 3 months old CIA file and scrambled a team to see what can be salvage from the sinking Imperial vessel. I do not think Putin actually instigated a rebellion in Niger but seize the moment and set to entrap the opportunistic Brits to further drive a wedge into the already divided Western Elite cliques. On cue, the simpleton AA moved, so let’s see if French had learn anything from history.   

(iii) Niger, Nuclear Energy Choke Point and French Colonial Franc Hegemony(CFA Franc) : (Fig. 8)

This is a league table of the top 10 Global Uranium production table. Niger ranks 6^th in Global Uranium Production and accounts for 10% of Global Supplies. Unbeknown to many, France is an electricity exporter and accounts for 43% of Nuclear Energy production in Europe(France’s share in Global Nuclear Energy Production is 13.5%). France gets yellowcake at pennies on the dollar from Niger. France produce a surplus of electricity. They export it, especially during times of duress in Europe, making their forex reserves and trade balances look far better than they should be if they were paying anything close to market price for Uranium ore and other commodities from the 14 former French Colonies nations in West Africa. Although these 14 countries are sovereign nations in name, the currencies they use - Franc of the Financial Community of Africa, (originally Franc of the French Colonies in Africa, or colloquially franc; abbreviation: F.CFA) and guaranteed by the French Treasury, and hence still very much controlled by their Colonial Overlords. (Fig. 9)

(iii) Rule Based International Order or Ruler Based International Order - At the heart of the Conflict between the West and the Global South is not the Rule Based International Order but whether there should be any World Ruler at all. It is not Capitalism vs Communism, or Plutocracy disguised as One Man One Vote Democracy vs Whole Democracy with Government by the People and for the People. Trade Wars, Financial Wars, Tech Wars, Public Opinion/Psychological Wars and Proxy Wars are just phases of different battle fields, the main theatre is really a contest between a continued rule by Western Colonizer Elites or a transformation into a Global Community of Common Destiny. The battle field is now extended to the poorest and most inaccessible part of Africa. This is exactly why WWI happened as the Colonizing Western Countries ran out of new frontiers to exploit and began to devour one another. (Fig. 10).

At the time of publication of this Blog, the Anglo American Empire has mobilized their proxies, the ECOWAS standing army to apply pressure on Niger. However if one studies carefully the composition of ECOWAS(Fig. 9), the most powerful country within ECOWAS is Nigeria with the rest being relatively small and Nigeria is following exactly the narratives of the US State Department. Nigeria was a former British Colony so naturally I would presume the dirty hands of the Windsors are in this game. With Macron standing aloof to the Anglo Americans in both Ukraine and China, the Niger coup may well be a curve ball of the Anglo Americans against France. Niger however is not standing in isolation, Mali and Burkina Faso have already declared that any forcible attempt to restore Bazoum (Niger deposed President) will be considered a “declaration of war” against their respective countries. This puzzle is extremely complex, China has a non-intervention policy regarding internal affairs of other sovereign states and France cannot allow the British to hold Niger as a hostage against France’s energy lifeline. It will be interesting to see whether the Wagner Mercenaries will somehow be involved as a peace keeping force whilst France negotiate a fair settlement with the Niger junta on the bounty of its lands. My take is this Black Swam will gather many Grey Rhinos and I sure will take shelter in my bunker when the sound of stampede comes close.

2. US Treasury Tsunami (Fig. 11) -

In 2008, the Lehman event was described as a financial tsunami, I said at the time, the collapse of the stock market only represents a receding of the seas before a natural tsunami, the humongous wall of water will come later when currencies are printed to counteract forced liquidation and credit destruction. We are now witnessing a second recession of liquidity in US as the White House and Federal Reserve have joint hands to herd US$ in support of unrelenting budget deficits. We have not seen significant liquidation in the US because a decent portion of household mortgage are still locked in at fixed rate of around 4% and CRE and corporate bonds at around 4%. These loans will have to be refinanced at 7% for home mortgages and 8%+ for CRE loans and Corporations. The public at large will be unable to refinance. At that stage, asset prices will see a rapid waterfall crash. The Fed talk is high interest rates will stay higher for longer, the complete picture is higher and longer until…..!!!.

This week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: (Fig. 12): Dow closed at 35,281 for the week, a loss of 178 points or -0.5%. S&P 500 -0.61% and NASDAQ -2.34%.

The size of Treasury debt issue spooked the market with concerns of bond buyers fatigue. There is a distinct turning away from FOMO buying as sentiment switched to Risk Off. The US Budget Office Projection is by 2040, Govt’s interest and entitlement expenses will be larger than all Federal Tax Revenue. 

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 13): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.158%, an increase of 20 basis points.

The size of Treasury debt issue spooked the market with concerns of bond buyers fatigue. Spread between Fed Funds rate and USGG2YR widened in the negative territory indicating the latest push in Fed Funds rate of 25 basis point has slowed credit appetite (Fig. 14).

With respect to Treasury Yield Curve, notes and Bond rates continue to rise on the back of the unhealthy spending habits of the Government and bond prices dropped. The entire yield curve inversion is progressing on a flattening trajectory.(Fig. 15)

C. FX and Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 16)

Bitcoin(+0.54%), Oil (-0.3%), GBP(-0.75%), Euro(-0.84%), Rmb(-0.91%), Gold(-1.45%), S&P 500 (-1.5%), JPY(-2.2%), NASDAQ (-2.87%), Rubble(-3.83%), Silver(-4.0%). Counter intuitively, the more the US Govt’s finances is shown in the ShXXHole, the higher the USD. Bank of America is noticeably seen to naked short Silver in the FX market to prop up the USD, I presume all in preparation by the USG for what may come out of the BRICS Currency pronouncement on August 22.

^{Proverbs 6:16}  These six things the LORD hates, Yes, seven are an abomination to Him: ¹⁷  A proud look, A lying tongue, Hands that shed innocent blood, ¹⁸  A heart that devises wicked plans, Feet that are swift in running to evil, ¹⁹  A false witness who speaks lies, And one who sows discord among brethren.