Middle East Jailbreak

Week ended October 13, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. Middle East Jailbreak: One week in politics is a long time, my last Blog just missed the Hamas Israeli Conflict but the whole issue remains under a thick war cloud. Let’s spend a little bit of time to clear the air and take a hard look with a view to see the wider implications therefrom. War is meant to change the course of human history, the Russian Nato Proxy war in Ukraine kicked start the Global South resistance against the former Western Colonial Powers. The Hamas Israeli War will take the opposing factions to the next level. (Fig. 1)

(i) 911 2.0??!!: If the West described the jailbreak by Hamas as a type of surprised attack like 911 and the general public accepts it, then it just proved that people do not learn from history. The Gaza Strip is surrounded by a 65 km “Iron Wall” at a height of 7 meters equipped with motion sensors and remote control machine guns and beyond the “Wall”,a 3km wide military buffer zone. (Fig. 2).

Goods entry and exit between Israel and Gaza must go through a heavily fortified check point at the Erez Crossing in North Gaza. Similarly goods between Egypt and Gaza must cross at the Kerem Shalom Crossing in the South. To launch a 5000 missiles attack and land invasion from what basically the largest “open air prison” in the world with some weapons originally destined for Ukraine from NATO and then totally off the radar from Israeli and NATO intelligence is a narrative that borders on absurdity. (Fig. 3)

Just as Mossad had tipped off CIA as regards 911, so did the Egyptian Intelligence forewarned Mossad days before the attack. (Fig. 4).

Now in a powder keg like the Gaza Strip, dare we suggest that there are no embedded Mossad agents placed in situ. With that proviso, what then is the story behind the story of this surprise ?

(ii) Social Media fear mongering on Steroids: Beheading of babies as narrated by Biden (Fig. 5),

Israeli youths at a music festival being gunned down or taken captives, all made the blood boiled (Fig. 6).

In this age of live Telegram reporting at every battlefield, it is remarkable that most people would have second thoughts about self directed screen plays by false flag bad actors. Reporting of misinformation have already came out on this very topic (Fig. 7).

Both Hamas and the IDF are wrong in the killing of innocent citizens but we need to keep a sound mind and not be swayed by MSM war propaganda to condone further loss of human lives. Instead we need to lobby our government for peaceful solutions. We also need to think and plan for ourselves and our families the fallout from this tragedy.

(iii) The Hamas Military Operations: Hamas conducted a well planned, well coordinated surprise attack at various IDF checkpoints and stations. Took captives IDF personnel and Israeli citizens then retreat back into the Gaza Strip. It seems the agenda was not occupation of territory nor ceasing of heavy artillery. The sporadic fighting outside the “Iron Wall” were likely Hamas militias being cutoff and left behind before they could successfully retreat back into their “Open Prison”. Knowing this mission would definitely invite ferocious retaliation by Israel and the Palestinians are locked in at the Gaza cauldron, what were they thinking and what are their political objectives in this exercise. Yes, Palestinians are known for suicide bombers but a population of 2.3 million having a death wish all at once is beyond comprehension.

(iv) The Israeli Counter Offensive: I was taken aback by the IDF response because unlike a western bank robbery and holdup movie, the IDF did not first negotiate for release of hostages before bombing heavily populated area in Gaza. Up to the time of writing this Blog, foreign citizens and UN officials residing within Gaza were killed as part of IDF’s response. Two US Aircraft Carrier Group will be stationed in the Mediterranean to show support of Israel. Food, water and electricity to Gaza has been totally cutoff by Israel. The Ford Carrier Strike Group is already on the scene and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike is leaving her home base in Norfolk, Virginia and arrived around early November. Officially Biden says no direct evidence of Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack but that may just be a ploy to buy time until the US attack force are ready, just like the Minsk Agreement.(Fig. 8)

In the meantime, Syrian airports at Damascus and Aleppo were also bombed. (Fig. 9) and US military is silently amassing around Iran.

Why? Is it because war torn Syria is too weak to respond? Or with Russia’s help, Syria would not yield to US and foiled the designs of Arab Spring. Or just may be Syria and China recently joined hands in a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership against US sanctions. Perhaps, there may even be a long shot of the Anglo American Empire encircling the Russian naval fleet at Tartous Port in Syria and up the Black Sea to Crimea as a bargaining chip for a freeze in the hopeless Ukraine War. (Fig. 10).

Every data point I see is a drowning sailor desperately trying to grasp whatever lifeline to prolong his chance of survival.

As outsiders, we can only speculate. We are cautioned that the paper tiger is still armed to the teeth with nuclear munitions and must therefore prepare for the worst. I am reminded nonetheless, Hitler and the original Nazis in their last days still refrained from using the atomic bomb. We may not be so fortunate that the Neo Nazis would not resort to nuclear weapons when they cannot win otherwise. As Christians, we are called to get down on our knees to pray for all humanity in repentance and mercies. 

2. Sitrep Ukraine War: Out of munitions and out of funds. (Fig. 11).

This week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: (Fig. 12): Dow closed at 33,670 for the week, a gain of 263 points or +0.78%. S&P 500 +0.22% and NASDAQ -0.05%..

Despite the Palestinian Israeli Conflict, Wall Street celebrated when Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. central bank does not need to raise interest rates any further. (Fig. 13) 

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 14): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.617%, a drop of 17.8 basis points.

The Bond Market reacted to two Fed dovish statements that interest rate may paused.

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 15) Oil (+5.79%), Gold (+5.57%), Silver (+5.41%), Rubble (+2.36%), SPX500 (+0.22%), NASDAQ (-0.05%), Rmb (-0.06%), JPY( -0.18%), Eur (-0.82%), GBP (-0.86%), Bitcoin (-3.45%), Uranium (-3.77%).

The escalating tension between Hamas and Israel caused European currencies to weaken but significantly improved the prospect of oil and precious metals. A fair part of oil and precious metal price rises were short covering by Hedge Funds when they shorted commodities on China’s Golden Week holidays for reasons of pure price suppression and now they are caught when tensions suddenly erupted in the Middle East. There is also solid Global South diversification from USD. This is a sea change despite a relative stronger dollar as compared with European currencies. The financial market is telling us more than what is revealed in the MSM. Be vigilant. Gold price has gone parabolic in Japanese Yen terms. (Fig. 16). Global hyperinflation as at the door.

Proverbs 1:20  Wisdom calls aloud outside; She raises her voice in the open squares. 21  She cries out in the chief concourses, At the openings of the gates in the city She speaks her words:22  "How long, you simple ones, will you love simplicity? For scorners delight in their scorning, And fools hate knowledge. 23  Turn at my rebuke; Surely I will pour out my spirit on you; I will make my words known to you. 24  Because I have called and you refused, I have stretched out my hand and no one regarded, 25  Because you disdained all my counsel, And would have none of my rebuke, 26  I also will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when your terror comes, 27  When your terror comes like a storm, And your destruction comes like a whirlwind, When distress and anguish come upon you. 28  "Then they will call on me, but I will not answer; They will seek me diligently, but they will not find me. 29  Because they hated knowledge And did not choose the fear of the LORD, 30  They would have none of my counsel And despised my every rebuke. 31  Therefore they shall eat the fruit of their own way, And be filled to the full with their own fancies. 32  For the turning away of the simple will slay them, And the complacency of fools will destroy them; 33  But whoever listens to me will dwell safely, And will be secure, without fear of evil."