The Short Shelf Lives of False Narratives

Week ended January 27, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. The Short Shelf Lives of False Narratives : An ability to control major news outlets and media does not equate to a monopoly on truth. It took South Africa 82 days to file an 84 page petition to the International Court of Justice (“ICJ”) and another 28 days for the 17 judges of ICJ to deliver a judgement that Israel has Prima facie committed Genocide against the Palestinians and must immediately cease such actions. I am amazed at this very compressed time frame for the Court Order to be issued considering Israel exercised a complete news blackout in Gaza and vehement claims by US and her cronies that Israel’s ethnic cleansing were within international law and reason. I applaud the efforts of South Africa, Tik Tok, X, Telegram, the many fearless independent journalists and thousands of netizens that recorded and reported on what actually transpired. Let’s hope we will see true justice when war criminals are brought down to face the punishment they deserve.

2.  The Unstoppable Houthis: With the world’s sentiment against Israel/US/UK after the ICJ verdict, the Houthis continue to amplify pressure on all the Zionist’s assets around the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. In another major escalation, the U.S. warship, the destroyer USS Carney, was fired upon early Saturday morning local time. (Fig. 1).

This followed a British Oil Tanker, Marlin Luanda, was set ablaze by another Houthis anti-ship missile in the Gulf of Aden hours before the attack on USS Carney. The heavily armored US Goliath is at wits end to fend off the cheap but potent turkey shoot of the Houthis armed with FPV Kamikaze Drones at just US$1,000 a piece and a US$500 to $2,000 Katyusha ballistic missile which is good for up to 10 Km range. The narrowest part of the Red Sea at the Strait of Bab al Mandab is only 13 Km from the shores of Yemen controlled by the Houthus. (Fig. 2).

This compares with a minimum cost of US$4 million for each defensive block by the Anglo American warships.

3. With Cap in Hand, US National Security Adviser intercept Wang Yi for urgent meeting on Wang’s visit to Thailand - (Fig. 3).

I have no doubt US has been forewarned about ICJ’s decision this Friday. But isn’t it a bit late when any legally trained mind who read the 84 page South African’s petition to ICJ on December 29 2023, could tell it is an open and shut case in terms of evidence and documentation that Israel would be found guilty on Genocide.  The US Operation Prosperity Guardian should more appropriately be renamed “Operation Quicksand” (Fig. 4) .

 

The week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: DJI rose 246 points or  0.65% for the week. (Fig. 5).

Last week’s rise was the final bit of short covering but this week’s rise is more likely dumb money on late FOMO buying. This gave Hedge Funds an opportunity to stuff greedy Johnny Come Lately with expensive stocks. (Fig. 6).

Shall I remind readers that last week AI Stock rally was all about Zuckerberg Instagram Reel on buying $ billions of Nvidia chips. (Fig. 7)

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 8): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.139%, a rate increase of 0.9 basis points.  

The important news on the debt market was the Fed’s decision to let the Bank Bail Out Facility (“BTFP”) expire on March 11. (Fig. 9).

 BTFP was set up on the aftermath of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. This is a liquidity lifeline for many banks which otherwise will have to liquidate their Treasury holdings at a huge book loss. Only the Fed knows where these troubled regional banks can raise the money to refinance the expiring Term Facility. (Fig. 10).

The demand for this funding has continued to climb as depositors switched from lower yield and more risky bank deposits to more liquid and higher yield Money Market Funds. (Fig. 11).

With the US Administration track record of not seeing a problem brewing even one week in advance, trust the Fed at your peril. All indications are there for a liquidity crunch at end Fed/early March 2024.

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 12) Oil (+6.54%), S&P 500 (+1.28%), Bitcoin (+1.11%), NASDAQ (+1.01%), Silver (+0.94%), CNY (+0.24%), GBP (+0.13%), JPY( +0.04%), Eur (-0.35%), Gold (-0.46%), Rubble (-1.81%) and Uranium (-9.92%).

The financial market is in chaos as Western political leaders are running around like headless chickens. Precious metals has by and large completed its consolidation phase and is anticipating turmoil in the global debt market.

1Samuel 17:38  So Saul clothed David with his armor, and he put a bronze helmet on his head; he also clothed him with a coat of mail. 39  David fastened his sword to his armor and tried to walk, for he had not tested them. And David said to Saul, "I cannot walk with these, for I have not tested them." So David took them off. 40  Then he took his staff in his hand; and he chose for himself five smooth stones from the brook, and put them in a shepherd's bag, in a pouch which he had, and his sling was in his hand. And he drew near to the Philistine. 41  So the Philistine came, and began drawing near to David, and the man who bore the shield went before him. 42  And when the Philistine looked about and saw David, he disdained him; for he was only a youth, ruddy and good-looking. 43  So the Philistine said to David, "Am I a dog, that you come to me with sticks?" And the Philistine cursed David by his gods. 44  And the Philistine said to David, "Come to me, and I will give your flesh to the birds of the air and the beasts of the field!" 45  Then David said to the Philistine, "You come to me with a sword, with a spear, and with a javelin. But I come to you in the name of the LORD of hosts, the God of the armies of Israel, whom you have defied. 

Goliath has Fallen

Week ended January 20, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. Goliath has Fallen: US Federal Law Code Title 10 Code 8062 stipulates “the Navy shall include not less than 11 operational aircraft carriers and not less than 31 operational amphibious warfare ships, of which not less than 10 shall be amphibious assault ships.” Why 11, the US War Doctrine is all about a projection of power, an ability to fight two geographical distant fronts simultaneously. This doctrine has its origin from the two world wars when wars broke out in the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time. It is important to note that out of the 11 aircraft carriers, 1/3 will normally be in maintenance and retrograde, 1/3 involved in training and only 1/3 combat ready for deployment. The longest period of deployment of an aircraft carrier was 340 days and need to return to base. An aircraft carrier cannot sail alone because by itself it is very vulnerable to attacks, hence an aircraft carrier strike group comprising 1 Aircraft Carrier with 65 to 70 aircraft, 2 Guided Missile Cruisers (loaded with 90 missiles each), 2 Anti Aircraft Warships,and 1-2 Anti Submarine Destroyers or Frigates. This combat architecture had its useful days but with the advance of long range hyper-sonic missiles and combat drone swam means this primary basis of US Power Projection has been rendered redundant. A hyper-sonic missile has a longer combat range than an aircraft and cannot be intercepted by onboard air defense system. A drone swam is cheap to launch and can easily exhaust an aircraft strike group air defense capabilities. As an ominous sign, for the first time since WWII, a killer whale was stranded in Florida last week and died. (Fig. 1).

Likewise the US aircraft carrier, a traditional symbol of US Military might, has now become a stranded killer whale when faced with a peer adversary armed with modern warfare technologies.

(i) A Single Chinese Cruiser 055 Nam Cheong chased away an entire US Carrier Strike Group (Fig. 2):

The Chinese Liaoning  battle group encountered the USS Nimitz Class Carrier Group in the West Pacific and despite Chinese warning, the USS warships tried to interject into the Chinese Carrier Group formation. 055 Nam Cheong was singularly sent ahead to intercept the US Strike Group. For 20 days Nam Cheong tagged and locked in a firing position the Carrier Group Ships which no electronic interference and intimidation by US planes or ships could shake off Nam Cheong’s precision locked ins. Should Nam Cheong fired all 48 anti-ship missiles, the entire US Strike Grouup would have been hit with no time to react yet keeping Nam Cheong safely out of the adversary’s firing range. Eventually the Nimitz Carrier Group was forced to changed directions. 055 Nam Cheong was awarded “Model of the Era” in the first week of January 2024.  This is the third time US Carrier Group was forced to retreat by a single Chinese ship or plane by tactics and advance targeting.

(ii) US Aircraft Carrier Gerald Ford Left the Mediterranean Seas after Houthis Red Sea Escalation: (Fig. 3)

As the Red Seas escalates with Houthis drones and missiles vowed to attack US and UK Ships, the newest and largest Aircraft carrier quickly left the Mediterraneans to return to home base in Virginia. Even the prime Western propaganda media, Politico was honest and admited that the sums doesn’t add up in an article titled “A $2 million missile vs a $2000 drone” (Fig. 4).

 2. Shanghai Cooperation Organization Anti-terrorism vs Mossad/CIA/Kurdish/Isis/Turkmenistan Terrorists: The whole middle east conflict is getting to be extremely complicated with Israel setting the table to pull US fully into a direct war with Iran through proxy terrorists actions. Whilst Iran tried not to engage directly, terrorists bombing within Iran by ISIS but sponsored and supported by Mossad and the CIA leaves Iran leadership little alternative but to retaliate to placate an angry Iranian population. (Fig. 5).

In a first ever long distance missile strike (1,230 km) on Jan 16, 2024 Iran hit the Turkmenistan/Israel Spy Ring terrorists through satellite guidance from SCO and on ground intelligence from Syria and Russia. The 25 minutes missile run was precisely and perfectly timed. Behind the scene, Turkiey also programmed their anti-terrorism operations against the Kurds.  In a sense, necessity dictates a line up of Iran/China/Russia/Syria/Tuekiey/Yemen/Hezbollah against the Zionists.  With little fanfare, Iran also began to enrich Uranium to 60%, a step closer to Nuclear Weapons grade. (Fig. 6).

3. North Korea tests ‘underwater nuclear weapon system’ (Fig.7): All these saber rattling is keeping the global peace loving population on the edge and Christians on their knees.

The week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: DJI rose 275 points for the week or  0.73% for the first week. (Fig. 8). S&P 500 rose 1.16% and Nasdaq rose 2.86% for the week.

The sell down as a reversal of over bullish sentiment from the December FOMC Powell’s pivot comes to an end and stocks were bid up led by AI stocks. All that takes was for Zuckerberg to make a Instagram Reels statement that he intends to buy $9 billion of AI Chips from Nvidia.  (Fig. 9).

Stock punters seems to forget Meta is being clobbered by Tik Tok and the Chinese won’t buy the watered down version of Nvidia chips as a result of product embargo. With 90% of US stocks owned by 10% of US households, keeping these 10% eyes fixed at the Colosseum with the Magnificent 7 Gladiator Game is a hat trick the elites must maintain.

 

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 10): USGGe10YR ended the week at 4.13%, a rate increase of 19.1 basis points.

The Fed is in a real dilemma with a need for higher rates in order to sell US Treasuries domestically or driving the private productive sector off the recession cliff.  In the meantime, my watching brief on a end Feburary liquidity crunch remains unchanged. (Fig. 11)

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 12) Uranium (+3.48%), NASDAQ (+2.86%), S&P 500 (+1.16%), Oil (+0.58%), Rubble (-0.24%), GBP (-0.36%), CNY (-0.37%), Eur (-0.54%), Gold (-0.85%),  JPY( -2.22%), Silver (-2.39%), and Bitcoin (-3.93%).

Again a manipulated Friday close to show USD and GBP gain from the Missiles strike on the Houthis. The rally on Bitcoin came to a close as the news of Spot Bitcoin ETF ran out of steam.

 

Revelation 14:8  And another angel followed, saying, "Babylon is fallen, is fallen, that great city, because she has made all nations drink of the wine of the wrath of her fornication." 

 

Tit for Tat or a Real War

Week ended January 13, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. Tit for Tat or a Real War:  Last week I took my wife and adult children for a short holiday in Melbourne from early Thursday morning to late Sunday evening and so the week’s Blog is brief and somewhat short. The week earlier, my ex-colleague also visited us from Hong Kong with their adult children family, My friend’s two sons are in their forties and I am so happy to see their family traveling together for a much deserved break. Coming back to the harsh realities of Geo-politics, there is nothing to be happy about in the second week of January 2024.

(i) US and UK jointly strikes the Houthis in Yemen:  By launching an aerial assault of Yemen, US and UK just officially incriminated themselves as accomplices to the genocide in Gaza. But what a futile exercise, Western merchant ships were still effectively stopped from entering the Red Sea because the global marine insurance industry would not as a result be encouraged to write insurance policies for vessels going into that region.  The embargo just got worse. Strategically speaking, the Houthis have tied the Anglo American Empire to a long war of attrition and doing it on the cheap. This will accelerate the demise of the West.

(ii) South African ICJ Case against Israel on Genocide in Gaza: South Africa’s 84 pages filing to ICJ is cut and dry because the proof of genocidal intent of Israel against the Palestinians are all from public records from Israeli officials. Once a verdict is given, there is also no escape for US and UK as accomplices.

(iii) Taiwan Election: The Greens won despite a 60% public sentiment swing against them. A sad day for the Blue and White politicians as their infighting will cost Taiwan dearly.  

2. The Global South: During my Melbourne holidays, I went to see the Twelve Apostles in Victoria. (Fig. 1).

The Twelve Apostles are a collection of limestone stacks off the shore of Port Campbell National Park in Victoria, Australia. Eight of the original nine stacks remain standing at the Twelve Apostles' viewpoint, after one collapsed in July 2005. Mighty as these Rock columns once stood, there is no match from the relentless attack by the waves from the Antarctic. You can see from the map insert in Fig. 1 (the blue dot at the southern tip on the Australian Map is where the Twelve Apostles stands, there is nothing in between to the Antarctic.). The Western Hegemony are just like the Rock Columns of the Twelve Apostles, their days are numbered.

The week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: DJI rose 127 points for the week or  0.34% for the first week. (Fig. 2).

The week started sharply higher on momentum trade from the previous week but gave way to disturbing news on escalation of war in the Middle East. In fact, the US Exchange Stabilization Funds was seen in maintaining order in the various financial markets on Friday’s NY close.

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 3): USGGe10YR ended the week at 3.939%, a rate decline of 8.88 basis points.

Continued huge fiscal expenditures has propped up the Labor Market. Although headline numbers were robust but weaknesses is seen in the mainly productive side of the US economy. Liquidity in the US Credit Market continued to decline. My forecast for a liquidity crunch at the end of Fecurary 2024 remained unchanged. (Fig. 4)

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 5) Uranium (+15.75%), NASDAQ (+3.43%), Rubble (+3.32%), S&P 500 (+2.01%), GBP (+0.14%), Gold (+0.11%), Eur (+0.03%), Silver (-0.07%), JPY( -0.25%), CNY (-0.38%), Oil (-1.71%) and Bitcoin (-3.76%).

Another highly manipulated Friday NY Close with the US Exchange Stabilization doing massive window dressing in favour of the US Stock and Bond Market and against Oil and Precious Metals to slow down momentum against USD from the Yemen attacks. These are just background noise that fools no one.

^{Leviticus 26:38}  You shall perish among the nations, and the land of your enemies shall eat you up. ³⁹  And those of you who are left shall waste away in their iniquity in your enemies' lands; also in their fathers' iniquities, which are with them, they shall waste away.