The Short Shelf Lives of False Narratives

Week ended January 27, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. The Short Shelf Lives of False Narratives : An ability to control major news outlets and media does not equate to a monopoly on truth. It took South Africa 82 days to file an 84 page petition to the International Court of Justice (“ICJ”) and another 28 days for the 17 judges of ICJ to deliver a judgement that Israel has Prima facie committed Genocide against the Palestinians and must immediately cease such actions. I am amazed at this very compressed time frame for the Court Order to be issued considering Israel exercised a complete news blackout in Gaza and vehement claims by US and her cronies that Israel’s ethnic cleansing were within international law and reason. I applaud the efforts of South Africa, Tik Tok, X, Telegram, the many fearless independent journalists and thousands of netizens that recorded and reported on what actually transpired. Let’s hope we will see true justice when war criminals are brought down to face the punishment they deserve.

2.  The Unstoppable Houthis: With the world’s sentiment against Israel/US/UK after the ICJ verdict, the Houthis continue to amplify pressure on all the Zionist’s assets around the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. In another major escalation, the U.S. warship, the destroyer USS Carney, was fired upon early Saturday morning local time. (Fig. 1).

This followed a British Oil Tanker, Marlin Luanda, was set ablaze by another Houthis anti-ship missile in the Gulf of Aden hours before the attack on USS Carney. The heavily armored US Goliath is at wits end to fend off the cheap but potent turkey shoot of the Houthis armed with FPV Kamikaze Drones at just US$1,000 a piece and a US$500 to $2,000 Katyusha ballistic missile which is good for up to 10 Km range. The narrowest part of the Red Sea at the Strait of Bab al Mandab is only 13 Km from the shores of Yemen controlled by the Houthus. (Fig. 2).

This compares with a minimum cost of US$4 million for each defensive block by the Anglo American warships.

3. With Cap in Hand, US National Security Adviser intercept Wang Yi for urgent meeting on Wang’s visit to Thailand - (Fig. 3).

I have no doubt US has been forewarned about ICJ’s decision this Friday. But isn’t it a bit late when any legally trained mind who read the 84 page South African’s petition to ICJ on December 29 2023, could tell it is an open and shut case in terms of evidence and documentation that Israel would be found guilty on Genocide.  The US Operation Prosperity Guardian should more appropriately be renamed “Operation Quicksand” (Fig. 4) .

 

The week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: DJI rose 246 points or  0.65% for the week. (Fig. 5).

Last week’s rise was the final bit of short covering but this week’s rise is more likely dumb money on late FOMO buying. This gave Hedge Funds an opportunity to stuff greedy Johnny Come Lately with expensive stocks. (Fig. 6).

Shall I remind readers that last week AI Stock rally was all about Zuckerberg Instagram Reel on buying $ billions of Nvidia chips. (Fig. 7)

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 8): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.139%, a rate increase of 0.9 basis points.  

The important news on the debt market was the Fed’s decision to let the Bank Bail Out Facility (“BTFP”) expire on March 11. (Fig. 9).

 BTFP was set up on the aftermath of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. This is a liquidity lifeline for many banks which otherwise will have to liquidate their Treasury holdings at a huge book loss. Only the Fed knows where these troubled regional banks can raise the money to refinance the expiring Term Facility. (Fig. 10).

The demand for this funding has continued to climb as depositors switched from lower yield and more risky bank deposits to more liquid and higher yield Money Market Funds. (Fig. 11).

With the US Administration track record of not seeing a problem brewing even one week in advance, trust the Fed at your peril. All indications are there for a liquidity crunch at end Fed/early March 2024.

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 12) Oil (+6.54%), S&P 500 (+1.28%), Bitcoin (+1.11%), NASDAQ (+1.01%), Silver (+0.94%), CNY (+0.24%), GBP (+0.13%), JPY( +0.04%), Eur (-0.35%), Gold (-0.46%), Rubble (-1.81%) and Uranium (-9.92%).

The financial market is in chaos as Western political leaders are running around like headless chickens. Precious metals has by and large completed its consolidation phase and is anticipating turmoil in the global debt market.

1Samuel 17:38  So Saul clothed David with his armor, and he put a bronze helmet on his head; he also clothed him with a coat of mail. 39  David fastened his sword to his armor and tried to walk, for he had not tested them. And David said to Saul, "I cannot walk with these, for I have not tested them." So David took them off. 40  Then he took his staff in his hand; and he chose for himself five smooth stones from the brook, and put them in a shepherd's bag, in a pouch which he had, and his sling was in his hand. And he drew near to the Philistine. 41  So the Philistine came, and began drawing near to David, and the man who bore the shield went before him. 42  And when the Philistine looked about and saw David, he disdained him; for he was only a youth, ruddy and good-looking. 43  So the Philistine said to David, "Am I a dog, that you come to me with sticks?" And the Philistine cursed David by his gods. 44  And the Philistine said to David, "Come to me, and I will give your flesh to the birds of the air and the beasts of the field!" 45  Then David said to the Philistine, "You come to me with a sword, with a spear, and with a javelin. But I come to you in the name of the LORD of hosts, the God of the armies of Israel, whom you have defied.