Ossification and Renewal

The week ended on May 25, 2024. Interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. Ossification and Renewal: Last week we shared about competition and natural laws. This week I like to continue my thoughts with natural laws and why there are predictable patterns in wars and economic cycles. I am a subscriber to the idea that the most important aspect of human immunology is not so much the presence of antibodies against antigen but the ability of the human body to generate new cells to replace dead and damaged cells. Case in point the differential mortality rates of Covid or flu between the young and old.  A person’s regenerative ability is very much dependent upon the body’s internals,

material constitution (having the right kind of food), polarity (energy levels), restful sleep and exercises. Let us now apply this principle to the key players on the current geopolitical proxy war chess board:

(i)  The Anglo American led NATO: US Federal Budget expends 7 times more on people over 65 than on people under 25. (Fig. 1).

The vast and growing size of unfunded health and retirement benefits will require today’s children to bear a heavy tax burden when they grow up to be working-age adults. The same spending pattern applies to other OECD countries although not as skewed as the US. With inflated Student Debt and low rate of return on college degrees, is there any surprise that young adults want a revolt against the old ossified politicians. With such a system, the US economic regenerative ability is very weak if not an outright incurable autoimmune problem. The young are weighed down but the ossified elite class with no stake in the future insist that they should carry on till they drop. In a recent interview with Jeff Gundlach, the new Bond King, Gundlach estimated by 2028 the US Social Security System will be unable to honor its obligations, much earlier than Social Security Trustee prediction of 2033. (Fig. 2).

The reason, the three base assumptions in the Trustee forecast were government deficit remained at below 4% to GDP (currently 6%), 3% interest rate (now 5%) and no recession to 2033. Historical pattern shows a recession would typically add 6% to 9% government deficit to GDP. With $17 trillion Treasuries at below 1% rolling off in the next 18 months and to be refinanced at 4 to 5%, a recession is guaranteed.

The Services component of GDP for US & EU are both around 70% which is 5 times larger than their manufacturing sector. (Fig. 3).  

In the Ukraine war of attrition, we have already witnessed Russia is out replensihing munitions by a ratio of 3 to 1 over NATO and in some key weapons systems 12 to 1. (Fig. 4).

The only manufactured item of NATO ahead of Russia is a false media narrative or Spin. War is a complex game in a chaotic environment. Without a clear ink between the aim of war and its conduct, the outcome will likely be a failure of politics accompanied by the loss of life, a sacrifice without purpose. What was US objective to use Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia - to weaken Russia before a final assault against China. Did US intend to fully engage Russia in war? No! Hence, primarily it was economic and financial sanctions plus a hotch potch in military assistance of outdated cache of weapons and munitions. I would draw an analogy to the mRNA vaccine. Inject into the body 5 billion spike proteins with a hope that the body would generate some antibodies to combat Covid. All these without knowing the mRNA vaccine full side effect. One such vaccine from AstraZeneca has now officially been withdrawn. (Fig. 5).

On the other hand, Russia views the NATO Proxy war as an existential threat and plan the Special Military Operation with clearly articulated objectives. Russia mobilized its arms manufacture surge capacity, focus on grinding down NATO/Ukraine life forces, munitions and equipment and further strengthen relationships with key allies in the Global South.

In my opinion, the biggest folly of the Western alliance is in the ossification of its leadership, a stubborness to double down a loosing hand rather than allow reality to amend its planning. I like to repeat a famous saying of Alexander Solzhenitzyn “Any man who has proclaimed violence as his method is inevitably forced to take the lie as his principle.” (Fig. 6)

(ii) The Global South: The business of the key players in the Global South is development, is business, is trade and not war. It has strong regenerative characteristics as resources and energy is dedicated to growth and not plunder. In 2023, GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity Basis already exceeded G7 (Fig. 7).

With the expansion of countries about to join BRICS in 2024 and 2025, the combined GDP of BRICS in 2025 will exceed 50% of the global total. Will there be setbacks and missteps by the Global South, for sure there will be. One thing though, I would not bet against a group with strong demonstrated regenerative abilities. As to timing, the next 3 years will certainly be a time of severe testing. Let’s pray in the meantime, minds are renewed and peace be the only victor.

2. ICJ orders Israel to halt its offensive on Rafah, Gaza in new ruling (Fig. 8):

The next step would be for the UN Security Council to decree a mechanism for enforcement. Should US decide to veto any enforcement resolution, a General Assembly may be held to evict Israel out of the UN. On 29 November 1947, the General Assembly passed Resolution 181 which recommended the adoption and implementation of a Partition Plan to allow the nation of Israel to come into being. It would indeed be ionic if by a UN General Assembly Resolution that Israel be kicked out.

Rom 12:1  I beseech you therefore, brethren, by the mercies of God, that you present your bodies a living sacrifice, holy, acceptable to God, which is your reasonable service. 2  And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God. 3  For I say, through the grace given to me, to everyone who is among you, not to think of himself more highly than he ought to think, but to think soberly, as God has dealt to each one a measure of faith. 4  For as we have many members in one body, but all the members do not have the same function, 5  so we, being many, are one body in Christ, and individually members of one another.