Saturday, June 22, 2024

Axis & Alliances

The week ended on June 22, 2024. Interesting news items to look at this week are:

Axis & Alliances: As an old man in his seventies, I am still energized every day by lessons I learned from my patriarchs in the millennia before me and see those lessons found applications in this chaotic world. One classic example is the Confucius concept of rule by virtue and rule by force. (皇道與霸道). How Axis and Alliances are formed in the Global South and the West today are not dissimilar to the 7 Warring Kingdom of China in BC 475 to 221. (Fig. 1).


(i) Putin Far East State Visit: Putin State Visit first to China, then North Korea and Vietnam underlined clearly a switch from Russia’s previous Eurocentric orientation to a Far East Orientation. The national emblem of Russia is a twin headed eagle drawing a parallel that Russia has the ability to straddle between the West and the East. (Fig. 2).


By entering into a strategic alliance with North Korea Russia will likely arm North Korea (if not already done so) with the medium range Kalibr missile system and thus can precisely target all US military bases in Japan, South Korea and Northern part of Philippines. (Fig. 3).

The 2500 Km Kalibr reach easily exceeds the 1100Km strike range of any US Carrier battle group and hence is a strong disincentive for US to try another proxy war on the Eastern flank of Russia. Military commentators speculated the arming of North Korea by Russia have previously received China’s blessing during the Xi Putin meeting.

(ii) Putin in Hanoi: Once again Vietnam exhibited her political savvy with her “Bamboo Diplomacy”, a term that means a “firm but flexible” foreign policy as regards relationships with Russia, US. And China. Vietnam is strategically located at the entrance of the South China Sea where 60% of Asia’s maritime trade passes and therefore is in hot pursuit by US as an essential component in her China containment strategy. (Fig. 4).


Like India, Vietnam and India can firmly remain unattached to the Great Powers but reaping benefits from all sides. However, the most interesting part of Putin’s Vietnam visit was the Press Meeting (for Russian Journalists only) in Hanoi where Putin told the reporters (and together with subsequent release by Russian MOD that US/NATO are forcing Ukraine to stage a counteroffensive at whatever costs in the Kharkiv and  Zaporizhzhia regions and gave General Syrskyi (current commander-in-chief of AFU) only 45 days to prepare. (Fig. 5).

The 45 days deadline was planned to avail a possible favorable political talking point before the US Presidential election. I am sure readers will remember it took 9 months and an open check book for Ukraine to stage the 2023 Summer counteroffensive and it failed. The current decree by US is no less than a suicide mission for 100,000 Ukrainians just for an octogenarian presidential candidate to say his use by date is not over yet.

(iii) US Backed Down in South China Sea as Philippines SEAL Team encircled by Chinese Coastal Petrol: Under a pretext of a US Joint Naval Exercise involving US, Japan, Canada and the Philippines. (Fig. 6)


The Philippines deploy her Naval Special Forces to charge into Chinese territorial waters at Ren'ai Jiao where the Philippines has left a “stranded WWII era Naval vessel” for the last 24 years. (Fig. 7.)

This long sad saga is an attempt to seize territorial right.s of Chinese waters despite clear documentation, including US archives that China has indisputable sovereignty. Ren’ai Jiao has not been an issue with President Durte and President Xi previously but at the instigation of the current US, Administration, the tiny speck of coral reefs has become a continuous subject of destabilization in the South China Sea. When China finally announced Maritime laws will be enforced by Coastal Petrol from June 15 2024, US once again pushed the Philippines to charge the red line on June 17. The projection of force by the US was impressive and code-named “Exercise Valiant Shield”. EVS included:
Two US Carrier Strike Group, the Regan and Roosevelt, Japanese attack submarine JS Jingei and helicopter carrier, JS Izumo. The Chinese countered with 3 of her newest guided cruise missile destroyers D055 and one 052C destroyer placed strategically at defensive positions . At the critical juncture, the US Joint Naval task groups stayed at a safe distance from Chinese fire power and only Philippines Warships entered into Chinese territorial waters with 6 speedboats sent to charge the stranded vessels. All Philippine Vessels were encircled, boarded and disarmed and the speedboats punctured by the Chinese Coastal Petrol. (Fig. 8).

The Chinese and US Governments had kept a low media profile on the whole incident. The question is after Ukraine, what sane mind would want to be the meat in the sandwich caught in between major powers.

Exodus 23:32  You shall make no covenant with them, nor with their gods. 33  They shall not dwell in your land, lest they make you sin against Me. For if you serve their gods, it will surely be a snare to you." 

 

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