The Fall of Damascus

The week ended on December 14, 2024, interesting news items to look at this week are:

1. The Fall of Damascus: 2024 will end with an enigma that few truly understands. How a “nation” with a standing army of 270,000 offered no resistance against a lightly armed known terrorists group of at best 30,000 militias. Dependent upon one’s political spectrum, there are jubilation of the power of the Zionists for a victory using hired guns to defeat a proxy of Iran and Russia.  There are recriminations against Turkey betraying Russia with the 2017 Astana Accord of and sponsored HTS to overrun the Assad regime. Only time will tell of what was the true reason why Bashar al-Assad gave up Syria but for the time being allow me to speculate possible consequence of this fall out.

(i) Greater Turkey and Greater Israel: Let’s start with known intentions of Erdogan and Natanyahu. (Fig. 1) is a map drawn from declared intentions of Erdogan and Natanyahu regarding territorial expansion of their respective countries.

The fact that fighting continued after Bashar al-Assad fled Syria and HTS started a transition of power process means Turkey and Israel has designs beyond just a regime change. As a matter of public record, since 2001, US had intentions to take out 7 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, namely: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran. (See video of General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe US European Command). With a belief of Iran being weakened by the fall of Syria, the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) is getting ready to attack the nuclear facility of Iran. (Fig. 2).

My speculation is that everything that happened was a race against time before Russia mopped up and conclude the NATO Ukraine proxy war against Russia and before Trump take charge at the Oval Office. However when one strikes a hot iron in haste one could also burnt.

(a) By taking out 80% of Syrian Military Assets (Fig. 3) immediately after the HTS coup,

does Israel expect the 30,000 HTS militias to guard the land bridge from Iran to Lebanon and Hezbollah as well as the whole of Syria? Remember it was Israel that asked for ceasefire after suffering huge casualties of its elite Golani Brigade in Southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. (Fig. 4).

Hezbollah stood strong against the IDF in Southern Lebanon but was pressured to comprise by the Lebanese government after IDF’s bombing repeated raids on Beirut. Remember Iran has two well equipped brigades standing ready to move into Syria and well capable to protect its supply line to Hezbollah. (Fig. 5).

(b) Proxies of Two NATO Countries are fighting each other: (Fig. 6)

The 20% separatist Kurdish population in Turkey has always been regarded as a major security threat in Turkey. With a total Kurdish population approaching 50 million straddling between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. (Fig. 7).

The Kurds is the largest ethnic group in the world without its own state (Fig 8) and has been fighting for their self determination for over a century. (Fig. 8).

The sad state of the Kurdish people was a result of the divide and conquer tactic designed by the British and France after a breakup of the Ottoman Empire and carefully crafted territorial allotment and nation incubation after WWII. US has since armed and funded the Kurds as its proxy and battling ram against its surrounding countries should they defy US rule. With a power vacuum quickly developing in the region and Turkey’s ambition as a regional hegemony, I foresee chaos and  conflicts to continue as alliances are formed and broken by comparative benefits and conveniences.  

Has the fall of Damascus changed global and regional Geo-politics. Yes, it will accelerate and escalate the ongoing conflicts but not advantageous to any particular factions. More and more resources are drawn into war and healthy economic co-operation, progress and developments are pushed to the back seat. It is indeed a sad conclusion of 2024.

2. Year End Financial Market Round Up:  Year to December 14, 2024 financial markets performance as follows (Fig. 9)

: Bitcoin (+141.1%), Nasdaq (+29.27%), Silver (+28.42%), Gold (+28.39%), S&P500 (+26.86%), Dow (+16.20%), Uranium (+12.67%), Copper (+7.76%), USD Index (+5.54%), GBP (-0.90%), Rmb (-2.44%), Oil (-3.74%), Euro (-4.89%), AUD (-6.61%), Jpy (-8.2%) and Ruble (-14.52%).

With the usual caveat of Financial Year End window dressing, performance of various asset class indicates a continuing decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies with out-performance in Bitcoin, Precious Metals and Energy related metals. Vassals and Cronies of the Anglo American Empire suffered and US profited from arm and energy sales. China, India and South Africa did well but setback for Brazil and Russia. Price for USGG10YR fell 3.29% and USGG30YR fell 3.86%. I have said enough that the US private sector economy is in contraction as liquidity is being drained via fiscal dominance. Take heed to read the correct market signals and exercise extreme care to avoid momentum baits. Due to my own caution against MSM propaganda, my family asset portfolio tracks well with the main US indexes although I do not have investments in tech stocks or cryptos.

I will be taking a break in writing over the Christmas holidays and my wish for you all a joyful Christmas and a peaceful New Year.

Isaiah 17:1  The burden against Damascus. "Behold, Damascus will cease from being a city, And it will be a ruinous heap. 2  The cities of Aroer are forsaken; They will be for flocks Which lie down, and no one will make them afraid. 3  The fortress also will cease from Ephraim, The kingdom from Damascus, And the remnant of Syria; They will be as the glory of the children of Israel," Says the LORD of hosts. 4  "In that day it shall come to pass That the glory of Jacob will wane, And the fatness of his flesh grow lean.