Counting Losses in the 12 Days War

The week ended on June 27, 2025, interesting news items to look at this week are:

Counting Losses in the 12 Days War: Round one of the very bloody Israel/Iran war has just concluded as both sides suffered very serious damages, became over-extended and temporarily ceased fire. The aggression shown by the Zionists further destabilized global peace and security and destroyed forever the “Rule Based International Order”. Setting aside the faked claims of victory for those involved, let’s count the losses using OSINT (“Open Source Intelligence”). Why I say faked claims of victory because the commonly recognized definition of a military victory is “when the stated political objectives that motivated the military operation” is achieved.

(i) Israel -  The Friday, June 13 pr-emptive attack on Iran was meant to achieve 3 purposes: (a) Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Enrichment facility and uranium stockpile. This has failed even with the US bombing. (Fig. 1).

 

 

(b) Decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear program leadership - partially successful but at a huge cost and (c) Trigger a regime change in Iran - no immediate success and unlikely to see further success.

According to OSINT, the department head for Iranian intelligence responsible for Israel was a Mossad Agent. At the risk of exposing Mossad’s sleeper cells in Iran at the highest level, Israel has bet the house to decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear program leadership. Over a dozen of IRGC Commanders (“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps”) were killed in one go when a faked meeting was called to gather the targets in one setting. On the other hand, at least 6 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed individually with precision as to the bedroom they slept in these scientists’ private residential apartments. The method of the attack revealed a harsh reality: most of the Israeli firepower and drones were launched by local collaborators and agents inside Iranian territory. Iranian authorities have discovered that suicide drones used to assassinate high-profile figures, from military commanders to nuclear scientists, are small but deadly and are often launched using ground-based systems. At the time of writing this Blog, the Iranian Security apparatus has arrested over 700 suspected collaborators and summary executed 3 Mossad agents and gutted Israeli drone manufacture sites within Iran with over 10,000 drones seized. (Fig. 2).

Perhaps the biggest loss to Israel in taking on Iran is Israel has crossed the line to pressurized US into action and clearly displayed the Zionists are pulling the strings of the US Administration and Congress. The live fire also allowed Iran and the world to pierce through the myth of invincibility of IDF and the US Military. Even the most expensive air defense system in the world, notwithstanding being aided and abetted by all the fire power of US Naval, Air Force and bases in the region, is susceptible to fatigue and burnout within two weeks if the system is run on a 24/7 basis by irritation of drones and rockets at a tiny fraction of the costs. (Fig. 3)

Next to machine burnout is the battle weariness of the Israeli public and the IDF. Israelites have no stomach to run and hide in bomb shelters when sirens reacted to air raids in a totally unpredictable manner. Sleep deprivation is a psychological and physiological torture and prosperous Jews now get a taste of the medicine they mercilessly dispensed on Palestinians and they are shaken by it.

Finally, Israel is such a small densely populated country that in just 12 days, infrastructure that supports the economy, container ports, airports, power plants, air refineries and major military industrial facilities are severely damaged. (Fig. 4)

(ii) Iran -  The 12 Day War exposed a weak underbelly of Iran in a number of ways: (a) vast infiltration of foreign agents and local collaborators, (b) Antiquated uncoordinated air defense system and (c) Wavering political leadership that tried to seek appease the West without strengthening a strategic partnership with China. The 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, focusing on economic, political, and defense cooperation with China was simply put on the back burner with no action taken. This contrast with Pakistan successful defence campaign against a pr-emptive strike by India followed by Egypt to replace F-16 with China J-15.

To Iran’s credit, just 24 hours after the decapitation strike, Iran was able to regroup with an effective counter offensive tactic that exhaust Israel’s defense capability on a limited resource but clever guerrilla missile plan.  

At this stage, it is commonly accepted that the bombing by US and the retaliatory escapade by Iran against the US Air Base in Qatar were mere political theatrics and combat could breakout at the drop of a hat once both sides are ready.

At the SCO Defense Minister Meeting on 25-26 June 2025, when asked whether China will provide military assistance to Iran, China simply responded that China is Willing to play a constructive role in peace. (Fig. 5).

Political commentators noted Iran is especially interested in China 052D with 64 VLC Missile launchers, the J10CE multiple combat aircraft and the HQ9 SAM system (Red Flag 9 Surface to Air Missile System).

(iii) USA - The political objective of US military engagement with Iran is 3 fold: (a) Protect and reinforce its battering ram. Israel, in the Middle East, (b) Maintain US position as the only implanted military power in the region to the exclusion of Russia and China, and (c) As a curve ball against China to frustrate China’s Eurasia integration plan and OBOR initiative. Whilst status quo may be maintained for the time being, US has lost big time her credibility as a responsible state in luring Iran into a deceptive state of security and unpreparedness through negotiation in bad faith, thus covering a window for Israel to strike. Immediately thereafter Trump failed to honor a pledge of two weeks for continuing negotiations with a stealth bombing within 48 hours. In the context of US has already challenged 150 countries in a tariff war and is in a dire strait to curry favor internationally for fresh credit, such rogue state behaviour would spell an end for US to survive unscathed for the remaining months of 2025. (Fig. 6)

In this period of utmost tension superpower chess game , a wrong move by any player could avail an opponent a distinct advantage in the full spectrum combat. Last week we reported two Chinese Reconnaissance Ships were spotted in Persian Gulf and Donald Trump immediately called for a two week’s pause for negotiations. No doubt the Chinese ships were there to capture every electronic signature on anything relevant in the real life combat. In January this year, China already let US know US Stealth technology is useless against the PLA (Fig. 7),

after Operation Midnight Hammer and a harvest of electronic signatures, PLA can smugly say again to US “GOTCHA”.

In my Nov 23, 2023 Blog titled “Pawns in the Game”, I reported that the Zionist/Muslim war is planned and will spark WWIII. We are now witnessing an acceleration of this momentum. Like the effect of a pebble hitting water, it creates ripples that spread outward from the point of impact. Where do you think you situate in the water. Be  thankful if you are not yet caught up in the ripple and be prepared when the ripple catches up with you.

Proverbs 6:16  These six things the LORD hates, Yes, seven are an abomination to Him: 17  A proud look, A lying tongue, Hands that shed innocent blood, 18  A heart that devises wicked plans, Feet that are swift in running to evil, 19  A false witness who speaks lies, And one who sows discord among brethren.