Peace, peace!' When there is No Peace

The week ended on July 3, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past fortnight are:

1. Peace, peace!' When there is No Peace: There is a Chinese proverb that says “聽其言,觀其行”which means caution dictates that one should “listen to his utterance but observe his actions.” To this I further remind myself of what Jesus says in Matthew 12:34 “For out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks.” It was less than two weeks before the US spilled her beans in public about her true intentions for signing an “MOU” with Iran. (Fig. 1).

A strategic pause, an opportunity to replenish her oil reserves, stabilize the markets, and time for military regrouping and preparation.  

(i) US Strategic Oil Reserves at Historic Low - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to roughly 325 million barrels, its lowest level since May 1983. (Fig. 2).

So shortly after signing the MOU, US behaved as if Iran had given up control of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and moved oil tankers without further reference. Iran, however, is not deceived after having been bitten twice before in negotiations with US and Israel under their cloak and daggers. .(Fig. 3).

Skirmishes flared just 10 days after the MOU.

(ii)  Post-MOU skirmishes - There were 4 separate military confrontations after the MOU, namely

(a) Strait of Hormuz Retaliatory Strikes: The US military launched a series of airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, coastal radar, and minelayer capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) described these actions as direct responses to Iranian drone attacks on Panama-flagged and other commercial tankers traversing the strait.

(b) Persian Gulf Skirmishes: Iranian military units retaliated to US strikes by deploying drones and missiles that targeted US-aligned interests in Kuwait and Bahrain.

(c) Escalations in Lebanon: The US-Iran MoU specifically declared an immediate termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, both sides traded reciprocal strikes after Iran accused the US of permitting Israel to continue occupying Lebanese territory in violation of the treaty. 

(d) Continued Southern Lebanon Engagements: The Israeli military continued its military presence in southern Lebanon and launched airstrikes against Hezbollah targets.

(iii) IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again - Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again on June 20, 2026. The military stated the move was in retaliation for Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, which Tehran claimed was a violation of a recently signed ceasefire memorandum of understanding with the United States.

(iv) Trump Declared National Emergency and Food Crisis - President Donald Trump on Monday declared a national emergency aimed at protecting the U.S. food supply and temporarily suspended import duties on certain Moroccan fertilizer products. Under the presidential emergency declaration, phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco will no longer face tariffs for up to eight months or until the emergency declaration is terminated. (Fig. 4)

The potential fertilizer/fod crisis for US is a self-inflicted wound as we can see through war, embargoes, sanctions, and through transit choke points that US  had painted itself into a corner. (Fig. 5) 

For Phosphorus - Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China combined account for 52% global share in exports. Potassium - Belarus, Russia and Canada combined account for 77%. Nitrogenous fertilizers - Russia, China, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt a combined 46.5% global share.

By extension, through insurmountable supply-chain squeezes in rare earth and critical minerals, oil and gas, and finally fertilizers, the only way for the entire Western economy to go is down. Let us not fool ourselves. The MOU with Iran, the IPO of SPCX, the recent strength of US Treasuries and DXY and the take-down of precious metals is a kabuki theater and a short-lived respite performance of a dying empire. (Fig. 6).  

2. What’s Your Business: “The business of America is war, the business of China is business” is a signature critique coined by geopolitical trend forecaster Gerald Celente regarding the opposing global strategies of the two superpowers. (Fig. 7)

Look at the different solutions used in China and Europe to counter the current heat wave. (Fig. 8).

Look at the Chinese products flying off the shelves to Europe and draw your own conclusion as to who will have the last laugh:Western political elites who are ignoramuses except for lying and electioneering, or down to earth Chinese who provide solutions to anticipated needs. (Fig. 9)  

The advancement of AI certainly impacted our society; readers may have spotted that my writing has shortened, as I too have begun to adopt AI to provide more data in graphical form. That means the images has a much richer information content than before and may require more of your attention. Please let me know if this has become a distraction rather than an enhancement. Thanks again for investing your time in this blog.

Jeremiah 6:8  Be instructed, O Jerusalem, Lest My soul depart from you; Lest I make you desolate, A land not inhabited." 9  Thus says the LORD of hosts: "They shall thoroughly glean as a vine the remnant of Israel; As a grape-gatherer, put your hand back into the branches." 10  To whom shall I speak and give warning, That they may hear? Indeed their ear is uncircumcised, And they cannot give heed. Behold, the word of the LORD is a reproach to them; They have no delight in it.  11  Therefore I am full of the fury of the LORD. I am weary of holding it in. "I will pour it out on the children outside, And on the assembly of young men together; For even the husband shall be taken with the wife, The aged with him who is full of days. 12  And their houses shall be turned over to others, Fields and wives together; For I will stretch out My hand Against the inhabitants of the land," says the LORD. 13  "Because from the least of them even to the greatest of them, Everyone is given to covetousness; And from the prophet even to the priest, Everyone deals falsely. 14  They have also healed the hurt of My people slightly, Saying, 'Peace, peace!' When there is no peace.15  Were they ashamed when they had committed abomination? No! They were not at all ashamed; Nor did they know how to blush. Therefore they shall fall among those who fall; At the time I punish them, They shall be cast down," says the LORD.16  Thus says the LORD: "Stand in the ways and see, And ask for the old paths, where the good way is, And walk in it; Then you will find rest for your souls. But they said, 'We will not walk in it.' 17  Also, I set watchmen over you, saying, 'Listen to the sound of the trumpet!' But they said, 'We will not listen.' 18  Therefore hear, you nations, And know, O congregation, what is among them.:19  Hear, O earth! Behold, I will certainly bring calamity on this people—The fruit of their thoughts, Because they have not heeded My words Nor My law, but rejected it.