Intelligence Failure or Dogs too Old to Adapt

Week ended November 24, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. Intelligence Failure or Dogs too Old to Adapt: The attack by IDF on al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza proved another serious intelligence failure of IDF and added to the many war crimes of Israel. Babies in incubators have to be rushed to Egypt and hundreds of very sick patients died. Under International War Convention schools, hospitals and places of worship are banned area of military operations unless concrete and definitive proof before commencement of attack already exist that proves those places are military command and control centers by the enemy. Such proofs were totally absent in al-Shifa despite a frantic search for Hamas’ presence after the attack (Fig. 1) from the Guardian.

(i) Basement chambers and facilities at the al-Shifa Hospital were well known since 1980’s because Israel built them and were designed by Tel Aviv architects Gershon Zippor and Benjamin Idelson. 11 days before the seige which began on November 11, a Norwegian doctor working in al-Shifa Hospital for the past 4 years went public and said there is no Hamas facilities in the hospital.(Fig. 2).

Alastair Crooke, former British Diplomat, two weeks before the attack of al-Shifa, argued that Hamas could not possibly hide underneath the hospital because the actual Hamas facilities were 70 meters below ground elsewhere with their own hospital, armory and civil engineering tunnel team with full mechanical equipment. The intelligence failure would likely be false information fed deliberately to CIA and Mossad assets, probaly Filipinos working in Hezbollah controlled area in Beirut. Such false fed intelligence had happened before. For details of Alastair Crooke interview, readers can watch a clip from youtube. (Fig. 3)

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBqEgWP2S9M

So it seems a lot of people were in the know, except the Spy Masters themselves.

(ii) Indiscriminate shooting by IDF: This week Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper published a report that IDF would need to carry some responsibilities on Jewish civilian casualties. On October 7^th, the IDF’s Apache Helicopter shooting from mid air at the Nova Music Festival couldn’t possibly distinguish between Hamas and Jewish civilians. (Fig. 4)

This is a second confirmation to the Jewish survivors eye witnessed account on what actually transpired. I reported this incident on my November 10, 2023 Blog.

Some commentators believed the many intelligence failures are signs of desperation of Netanyahu and Biden who both carry potential criminal liabilities for corruption and political misbehavior on top of war crimes. These commentators cautioned a false flag attack may happen in the near future similar to the USS Liberty incident on June 8, 1967. A false flag event could directly bring US into the conflict and may inflame a large scale multinational regional war in the Middle East. (Fig. 5)

 

(iii) Israel’s Gaza Ground Operations is expanding but PR is a Disaster: Israel has attempted to block all channels of communications from Gaza but with today’s technologies, it is an outright impossibility. According to satellite images analyzed by Al-Jazeera, 383 IDF military vehicles (tanks and armored carriers) entered Gaza at the start of the ground operation on October 27. Various reports up to November 18 indicated some 239 IDF vehicles were totally or partially destroyed. So in a matter of 3 weeks some 62% of Israeli military equipment in Gaza suffered damage or destruction. This points to the tough conditions of urban warfare despite IDF’s overwhelming superiority in manpower and firepower. With Turkey sending 1000 ships to Gaza and an ability to post a 2 million strong army within 30 days, whatever original design Israel and US has for a Gaza cleansing operation will be easier said than done. There is a saying among independent military analysts that Pentagon has only two options. The first is the Wrecking Ball option; big swing and civilian infrastructure disappeared. The second is the Samsonite option, when the going gets tough, GIs would pack their bags and leave. My prayer is that the poor Palestinians in Gaza would come out better than this.  

2. Financial Sustainability for Continuous Wars: Figures released by US Treasury showed between January 2022 and September 2023, some $2.57 trillion were pulled by overseas investors (Sovereign Governments, Central Banks and Private Sector) out of US. (Fig. 6).

To meet this liquidation requirement, US investors sold down overseas investments by $1.78 trillion, (Fig. 7)

thus net capital outflow amounted to $790 billion. The composition of the liquidation by Foreign Investors were 71.4% Equity, 19.9% Corporate and Agency Bonds and 8.7% Treasuries. The de-dollarization process were much more severe than just a sell down of US Federal Debt by China and Japan.

(i) The High Stock Market Risk of the Magnificent 7: When one just take a casual look at the broad stock market index, between January 2022 and last Friday, the S&P 500 index only declined by 198 points or 4.15%. (Fig. 8).

On close examination, only 7 stocks provided the support for the S&P 500 Index and there are dark clouds on the horizon over these Magnificent 7. (Fig. 9).

AAPL is being seriously challenged by Huawei, Tesla by BYD (Tesla stock market valuation is 8 times BYD despite BYD has just bypass Tesla as the world’s biggest EV maker), Meta is falling behind Tik Tok, Nvidia faces fresh export ban of its dedicated Chinese AI Chip, Msft just had a management earthquake at OpenAI, and Amzn are on continuous headcount reduction drive. Ever wonder why US hates China so much, because not only has China caught up with the best of the best in US, it looks like given time, surpassing US is a certainty. The combined forward looking PE ratio of these Magnificent 7 is over 30 but the rest of the economy have no room left for these 7 to grow their earnings at double the speed of everyone else. (Fig. 10)

When these 7 are finally brought down to earth, the whole shebang will collapse like a house of cards.   

(ii) The Federal Reserve is in its last days: Weekly financial losses to Nov 15,2003 of the Fed rose to $118.7 billion and cumulative negative net-worth of the Fed would be over $3 trillion before end of November. (Fig. 11).

Using trend-line projections, the Federal Reserve would exhaust its entire Balance Sheet Assets by early Spring 2024. (Fig. 12).

An abandonment of dollar holdings has already begun on top of avoiding dollar settlement for trade. The Global Currency Reset which have been in secret discussions for years is now finally at the door. There will be more visible signs when financial market resumes on Monday.

3. Young Fighting Men in Ukraine are all Gone: Time magazine reported the average age of Ukrainian soldiers has increased from 30-35 at the start of war to 43. (Fig. 13).

So sad, so many young men were sacrificed when a peace treaty could have been signed in Spring 2022. (Fig. 14).

During the talks, Arakhamia added, British then-PM Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev and told Ukrainian officials to keep fighting and not sign any agreements with Moscow.

This week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: (Fig. 15): Dow closed at 34,947 for the week, a rise of 443 points or +1.27%, S&P 500 +1.11% and NASDAQ +1.04%.. Thanks Giving Holiday Week in US and year end window dressing rally continued.

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 16): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.472%, an increase of 3.3 basis points.

 

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 17) Bitcoin (+4.07%), Silver (+2.40%), GBP (+1.12%), SPX500 (+1.11%), Gold (+1.07%), NASDAQ (+1.04%), Rmb (+0.87%), Uranium (+5.89%), Eur (+0.27%), Rubble (+0.25%), JPY( +0.15%) and Oil (-0.43%).

USD was weak and most currencies and commodities showed price gain against USD except oil as tensions in Gaza eased somewhat with cease fire arrangement.

 

Proverbs 19:9  A false witness will not go unpunished, And he who speaks lies shall perish.

Ukraine and Gaza Wars to Connect EU to Mediterranean Gas

Week ended November 17, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

 1. Ukraine and Gaza wars to Connect EU to Mediterranean Gas: This week the alternative media is buzzed with revelations of key economic drivers behind the Ukrainian and Gaza wars. The Ukraine war is to sabotage Russian gas supply to Europe and the Gaza War is for Israel to substitute and monopolize piped gas supply from the Mediterranean Leviathan Gas Fields. (Fig. 1).

News and analysis of such a nature would never receive official confirmation nor covered in depth by MSM, so it is up to readers to judge the validity of the many data pixels and the broad picture that these data collectively revealed.

(i) Nord Stream Gas Pipelines Sabotaged: 6 months into the Ukraine war, the Nord Stream pipelines suffered a sabotaged explosion. But even before Russia’s SMO into Ukraine, Joe Biden already guaranteed on Feb 7, 2022, the Nord Stream Pipelines will be put out of commission. (Fig. 2).

“From the abundance of the heart, the mouth speaks”, Joe Biden is well known for his inability to control his mouth as was just demonstrated by calling Xi a dictator in Xi’s current visit to US, a visit pleaded on for months by the Administration Officials, to boost Biden’s chances for reelection.

One year after the sabotage, Seymour Hersh, the Pulitzer Award Investigative Journalist, points the finger at the White House. (Fig. 3).

Now with the Gaza war and MSM almost totally forgotten about Ukraine, CIA this week through Wapo came up with a hilarious scapegoat  - Ukrainian Colonel Roman Chervinsky as the principal coordinator for the Nord Stream bombing. (Fig. 4).

I suppose CIA wants to clear the rumor mill well ahead of the next stage of connecting Israel Gas to Europe. Zelensky probably also wanted to undermine his presidential election competitor, General Zaluzhny, after all Chervinsky is one of Zaluzhy’s boys. Killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.

(ii) Mediterranean Natural Gas - There are a number of contenders for natural gas in the Mediterranean Seas, namely Egypt, Hamas, Israel, Lebanon and Turkey. In November 2022, one project was floated which could bring Israel and Hamas together as partners. (Fig. 5).

It is simple science that a pocket of natural gas that sits in an area crossing different national boundaries would move according to gas pressure differentials but not man made sovereignty delineation. There is further complications with new drilling technologies that a platform in Israel’s territorial waters could employ angular or horizontal drilling techniques to tap into deep sea natural gas in other nearby jurisdictions. Dominance over natural gas in the Mediterranean is a classic contest for national security and prosperity. Israel and Lebanon has been in dispute over gas reserves in the East Mediterranean, the Leviathan Gas Fields, since 2010 and settlement was only achieved in 2022. (Fig. 6)

   

(iii) Europe’s Piped Natural Gas Import and Significance of the Leviathan Gas Project: Before the Ukrainian War, Europe imported 5.4 trillion cu feet of piped natural gas from Russia with a then market value equivalent to US$182 billion. Gas Reserve at the Leviathan Gas Field is estimated to be 22 trillion cu feet making an export sales potential to Europe at $750 billion. Beyond the monetary value, a US/Israeli control of this gas supply to Europe would have a higher strategic significance than NATO itself - keeping US in, Russia out and Germany down. Sadly for the Anglo Americans, all the prior scheming for the Ukraine proxy war came to nothing as Nato and the Zelensky’s military machine is progressively ground down by Russia. It is probable that by Spring 2024, Ukraine would likely be forced to bend the knee. Would a declining Anglo American Empire and Zionist race to connect gas supply from Israel to Europe before EU slips out of their control, yes you bet. Would they destroy any resistance to their plan by exterminating Hamas and evict all Palestinians in Gaza. Remember Syria was almost destroyed between 2012 to 2015 for choosing to back an Iranian pipeline to Europe over the US backed Qatar pipeline. (Fig. 7).

US is still illegally occupying parts of Syria and together with Israel had bombed Syria four times in the current Gaza War.

(iv) Amid ongoing war, BP and Eni among firms awarded gas exploration licenses in Israel (Fig 8):

On October 29, exploration concessions were given to two consortia comprised Israeli, British, Italian interests and State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic despite the ongoing war. Prior exploration rights were given to Chevron Corp and and even Gazprom in 2015.

1Timothy 6:10  For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil, for which some have strayed from the faith in their greediness, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. Populism and Palace Politics are not one and the same. Understand what is at the centre of the current struggle between nations. My friends, please do not get all worked up by so called anti-semitism or other MSM war propaganda. Media sensationalism are meant for distraction and to sap away your time and your energies. In all that you do, seek wisdom. Be blessed.

2. Sitrep Ukraine War:

(i) EU admits it won’t keep Ukraine ammunition promise (Fig. 9).

(ii) WSJ admits "Magical Thinking" Guided Its Reporting On Ukraine... Many Thousands Of Deaths Later (Fig. 10).

The end is drawing closer.

3. See the detailed UN vote count as is who is for, against and abstain for Humanitarian Cease Fire in Gaza. (Fig. 11)

This week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: (Fig. 12): Dow closed at 34,947 for the week, a rise of 664 points or +1.93%, S&P 500 +2.35% and NASDAQ +2.00%.. 

In celebration of the Nov Fed Pause and a softer inflation rate, CTA (Commodities Trading Advisory) bought 70 billion of most American stocks over the past 10 days. (Fig. 13)

We all know CTA are highly leveraged, algo driven, options and derivatives armed HFT funds that are employed to impact sentiment on a certain direction of the market. So enjoy the little sunshine in between dark clouds or just free yourself from shackles when the going is good. As for me, the last few % window dressing rally is too much excitement for my old age. I am more looking forward for the Christmas dinner with family. Here in Australia, it is a summer Christmas and the favorites are oysters and tiger pawns and not turkeys and hams. (Fig. 14).

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 15): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.439%, an increase of 20.7 basis points. 

The 10 YR Note prices were bid up by 1.67%, along with the sentiment of the stock market. Funds trading sentiment is one thing, the other spectrum sees a further cooling of credit market with $63 billion commercial bank deposit outflows and continued loan volume contraction. (Fig. 16).

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 17) Silver (+6.69%), Uranium (+5.89%), Rubble (+2.57%), Gold (+2.32%), SPX500 (+2.25%), Eur (+2.10%), NASDAQ (+2.00%), GBP (+1.85%), JPY( +1.31%), Rmb (+1.09%), Oil (-1.56%) and Bitcoin (-2.20%).

Last week I said Energy, Precious Metals and Russian Ruble were uncharacteristically manipulated down, probably to set a stage to report a lower inflation number and this week we saw a reversion back to a more sensible level. Oil was the exception with derivative suppression by the Powers That Be to counter a fear of supply disruption that might go against a narrative of a lower inflation outlook. I found such monetary psyop tactics quite old fashion as OPEC+ would simply talk oil price back up by a bluff of production cuts. (Fig. 18)

^{Proverbs 6:16}  These six things the LORD hates, Yes, seven are an abomination to Him: ¹⁷  A proud look, A lying tongue, Hands that shed innocent blood, ¹⁸  A heart that devises wicked plans, Feet that are swift in running to evil, ¹⁹  A false witness who speaks lies, And one who sows discord among brethren.