War is a Game Without Rules

Week ended November 10, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. War is a Game Without Rules: As a once finance professional, a very big part of my job was to figure out what shapes the future in my planning horizon, typically from the annual budget to a long 10 year forecast. Now that I am old and retired I still have the silly habit of trying to trying to figure out when certain world events would come to a logical conclusion. I stuck my neck out in my September 9^th Blog and said the Ukrainian War would end on 8^th August 2024 (tongue in cheek of course) and for this week’s discussion, I will do the same for the Israel/Palestinian War. The two wars are very much related as they are both conflicts within the same Thucydides Trap. (Fig. 1)

(i) Political Objectives of the Ukrainian Proxy War: The political objective of Russian’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine was stated very clearly at the outset by Putin. The SMO is to achieve long term security for Russia through a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine and ensure Ukraine’s neutrality between Russia and NATO. (Fig. 2).

Take away the vilification facade against Russia by the Anglo Americans, from the Maidan Orange Revolution in 2004, the deceptive Minsk Agreement, to the killing of 14,000 ethnic Russians in the Donbass War, the conflict was a design to weaken, Balkanize Russia with a view to remove Putin through draconian economic and financial sanctions. (Fig. 3).

(ii) Ukraine depleted of Soldiers, Amno and Money: After the failed Summer Counter-offensive, Ukraine is now destitute of all necessary resources for war. Europe is in recession and US with mounting deficits, runaway Federal Debt, Bipartisan Rift and a much more important client - Israel, US is no longer in a position to further bailout Ukraine.(Fig. 4).

It is Russia’s intention to annex Odessa by Spring 2024 and when Ukraine became totally landlocked, the Western Powers would lose its desire to continue with a losing cause. (Fig. 5).

In the meantime, as reported last week, key Amno like the 155mm artillery shells for the Howitzer has gone up in cost by a factor of 4.3 times in 2 years for NATO and client States and in desperate short supply. It looks like the bets are on for Russia to negotiate from a position of strength next year.   

(iii) Political Winds Against Zelensky and Biden: The Propaganda machine in the form of Western MSM has already turned to laying the ground work for General Zaluzhny will take the throne after Zelensky. Across the Atlantic there is subtle insinuation that Californian Governor Newsom may hold a close second nomination ticket after Biden. No doubt Biden and Zelensky are grasping for the last straw. (Fig. 6)

Zelensky even hedged his bet by inviting Biden’s arch-enemy Donald Trump to visit Ukraine. (Fig. 7).   

(iv) How long will the Siege of Gaza last: With Russia decidedly and convincingly encircling Odessa and when Odessa is taken, it will be a major blow to the Anglo American international standing. The $64 question is can Israel finish her extermination of Hamas well before Spring 2024 to free the Anglo Americans in the Middle East. I am not a military analyst, but the stated goal of total extermination of Hamas and complete eviction of all Palestinians off Israel is simply not possible within the next 141 days by March 31, 2024. Even with complete air dominance, the siege of Mariupol in Ukraine took 85 days and the battle of Bakmut is already 467 days and counting. Ukraine’s counter offensive has failed but sporadic fighting in Bakmut continued to legitimize the Zelensky regime. My Blog last week intimated a darker scheme for the Global Elites to ignite the flames for WWIII through Zionists and Muslims and it certainly appears that the Israel/Palestinians would unlikely end soon. So be prepared my friends for further escalations.

(v) Conspiracy Theory?: Whether you subscribe to plans for a One World Government Global Domination or not, the facts are nations are lining up for or against a “Rule Based International Order”. We are not ignorant that domination is to be achieved both by violence and deception. The Israel/Palestinian War left many questions unanswered, some of those questions were raised in my Blog dated October 21, 2023. Subsequent news have confirmed some of our earlier suspicions:

(a) A large number of Hamas hostages were killed by IDF during the crossfire as fighting broke out on October 7 (Fig. 8).

A name list of the 1,400+ victims just released by the Israeli Government showed a large number were Israeli soldiers. (Fig. 9).

From Times of Israel, IDF soldiers just waited outside the Kibbutz and did not engage Hamas until hours later. (Fig. 10)

    (b) Proxies are richly rewarded: Whilst the average daily wage in Gaza is $13, the top 3 leaders of Hamas are worth a combined $11 billion and they live in Qatar, no, not Gaza. Picture has a son of one of the sons of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh lounges in a luxury hotel suite in Qatar. (Fig. 11).

Guess who they rub shoulders with on a regular basis. (Fig. 12).

Haniyeh and Zelensky looks to me are birds of the same kind and couldn’t care less what happens to their constituents. Qatar is the major benefactor of Hamas and Qatar is an import ally of US with its the Al-Udeid Air Base currently serves as the operational hub for over 10,000 American military troops and supports a fleet of more than 100 aircraft as well as drones. As far as I am concern, the whole setup stinks.Alexander Solzhenitsyn once said “Anyone who has proclaimed violence his method inexorably must choose lying as his principle”.  agree with him. (Fig. 13)

(c) Hamas is Sunni but Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi and Yemen Houthis are Shiites: As previously reported, Hamas is not only Sunni but a derivative of Muslim Brotherhood and therefore not cosy to the Shiites. So far both Israel and US have twice air raided Syria even Syria has no direct involvement in support of Hamas. An interesting news item was reported by EFE, the largest Spanish language media and 4^th largest news agency in the world that 3 Mossad agents were caught planning drone strikes on Iran from Afghanistan (Fig.14) .

Iran and Afghanistan had border skirmishes before and both sides claimed the other nations started firing first. As Sun Tzu in “Arts of War” Chapter 1:18 states “All Warfare is based upon deception”. (Fig. 15)

We need to keep vigilant to avoid the many pitfalls that would agitate and divide us.

War is a game without rules and evil is without bounds. Again I beseech you my friends to partake of the fruit from the Tree of Life and stand firm on the solid foundation of the Rock of Jesus Christ.

This week’s financial markets:

A. Stock Market: (Fig. 16): Dow closed at 34,283 for the week, a rise of 222 points or +0.65%, S&P 500 +1.17% and NASDAQ +2.77%.. 

The Fed rate pause over the previous quickly fizzled out as the Fed stealth buying of long duration quickly triggered another round of bond dumping by the Bond Vigilantes. During the week US Govt interest expense crossed the $ trillion mark. (Fig. 17)

It is estimated by 2040, total US Govt tax revenue will only be just sufficient to pay interests and welfare with nothing left for all other programs including defense. The banking sector continued to be under pressure with Banks ETF under performing S&P as Primary Dealers are under obligation to bid at Treasury Auctions and bank deposits are easy targets to be raided in support of Govt borrowing needs.(Fig. 18)

 

B. Debt Market: (Fig. 19): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.646%, an increase of 6.9 basis points.

In the meantime, the weekly trading loss of the Federal Reserve has accelerated to $116.9 billion.(Fig. 20).

The Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve shows a negative net worth of well over $1 trillion and so does the ECB, BOE and BOJ. The western economy are all running on digital fumes with hyperinflation or WWIII seems to be the only way out.

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 21) Bitcoin (+8.08%), NASDAQ (+2.77%), Uranium (+2.46%), SPX500 (+1.17%), Rmb (+0.15%), Eur (-0.40%), Rubble (-0.60%), GBP (-1.22%), JPY( -1.42%), Gold (-2.71%), Silver (-3.93%), and Oil (-4.33%).

Friday NY Close and again a manipulation galore shows up with stocks bid and bonds, oil and precious metals dumped right in the midst of a powder keg scenario in the Middle East. I would just enjoy the good weather and switch off the Reuters screen for a while.

^{Daniel 11:40}  And at the end-time, the king of the south shall butt at him. And the king of the north shall come against him like a tempest, with chariots and with horsemen and with many ships. ⁴¹  And he shall enter into the countries and shall overflow and pass over. He shall also enter into the glorious land, and many shall be stumbled. But these shall escape out of his hand: Edom and Moab, and the chief of the sons of Ammon. ⁴²  And he shall stretch out his hand on the lands. And the land of Egypt shall not escape. ⁴³  But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt. And the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps. ⁴⁴  But news out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him. Then he will go out with great fury to destroy, and to devote many to destruction. ⁴⁵  And he shall plant his palace tents between the seas in the glorious holy mountain. Yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.