Week ended December 8, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:
1. A Stone of Stumbling and a Rock of Offense: The pause in the blood bath in Gaza ended a week ago and deaths and injuries continued. As a student of bible prophecy, I have no clear idea of when this humanitarian disaster will end but believe the flames of war will spread far and wide until people all over the world will be exhausted and disgusted by the senseless deaths. A charismatic leader will then emerge and by deception will usher in a false peace. Then when humanity got comfortable with his global leadership, his true colors of being a tyrant and dictator will be revealed. (Fig. 1)
No, I am not talking about a repeat of the actors and the Washington scene of September 13, 1993 because today, the power levers are all different and have become so much more complicated.
(i) Rabin vs Netanyahu: Politics in Israel is extremely complicated because even among the 7 million Jews living in Israel, there are major religious, social and political chasms that divide them within the borders of this small nation. First there is the Yishuv which are the Mizrahi Jews (from Middle East) that lived in the Land from the Ottoman and Pre-British Mandate days. By 1948, there were altogether 630,000 of Yishuv. Before nationhood of Israel in 1948, the Yishuv lived in peace with their Arab neighbors and these Yishuv Jews were characterized as very religious. Then a big wave of migration (aliyah) of European Jews set upon the Land as a result of the holocaust. This next batch of Jews comprising Ashkenazi Jews (Germanic Jews) and Sephardi Jews (Hispanic Jews), each with different cultural influences from Central Europe and Southern Latino Europe. A third wave of aliyah came after the collapse of the Soviet Union from 1989 and now comprise 25% of the 7.1 million Jewish population with a left wing inclination. Under the former Soviet Union, Jews were not specifically discriminated on ethnic grounds but there were anti-religious laws enforced against all religions including Judaism. A fourth wave of aliyah came after 2002, the “US Brooklyn” type with their Evangelical Christian origin and funded by the same. These different Jews with their diverse background and traumas coupled with a difference in faith make governance of Jews in Israel delicate and volatile. Israeli parliamentarian politics is,therefore, characterized by a coalition of minor political parties without a single majority ideology. Netanyahu is a Zionists and believe the Jews have a God given right to the Land at the exclusion of all others. Rabin in opposite was assassinated for acceptance of a two state solution. However, not all Jews are Zionists because the ultra-orthodox religious Jews are against Zionism. (Fig. 2).
Anyone serious in sponsoring peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians will need to understand how different Jews think and their core beliefs. In this respect, Jews are divided into 4 main groups by their faith:
(a) Haredim (9%) are the most religiously devout group in Israel, with 96% saying religion is very important in their lives, compared with 30% of all Israeli Jews. The word “Haredi” literally translates to “trembling” or “fearing God,” and most Haredim live their lives secluded from the rest of society.
(b) Datiim(13%) are nearly as religiously devout as the Haredim. About nine-in-ten of those surveyed from both groups say they are absolutely certain in their belief in God, and nearly all surveyed from either group say they do not travel by car, train or bus on the Sabbath, in accordance with Jewish law. However, Datiim – sometimes described as modern Orthodox Jews – are much more integrated in modern Jewish society.
(c) Masortim (29%) are the most diverse of the four Jewish groups. They encompass a large middle ground between the two Orthodox groups and secular Jews. About half (51%) say religion is somewhat important in their lives, as opposed to very important (32%) or not too/not at all important (16%). While the three other Jewish groups often have strong opinions on one side or another on many issues relating to religion and public life, Masortim are generally much more divided.
(d) Hilonim (49%), who tend to be secular in their outlook, are by far the largest Jewish group in Israel, making up roughly half of Israeli Jews. Only 18% are absolutely certain in their belief in God, and 40% do not believe in God at all. Hilonim strongly favor the separation of religion from public life in Israel. (Fig. 3)
The Zionists are not the majority but holds key cabinet and military posts by virtue of a coalition government with the charismatic Benjamin Netanyahu very skillful in manipulating public sentiment especially through fear and insecurity. Please see the different parlimentary power blocs in (Fig. 4)
(ii) Clinton vs Biden: With the disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991, Clinton represented the peak of US Global Supremacy in 1993 when he could chaperone Rabin and Arafat to shake hands in Washington. Biden on the other hand is grasping for straws against a fast declining and much weakened Anglo American hegemon. For close to 40 years since the default of Bretton Woods, the US has decidedly traded off its industrial real economy to preserve its dollar hegemony and military edge. The unintended consequence of spreading dollars far and wide led to the the dotcom mania, the subprime fiasco, 15 years of ZIRP followed by tax cut MAGA Trump and Covid means both the White House and Main Street have pledged their souls and bend the knee to Wall Street and Jewish financiers. The Friday just past, US cast a lone veto of UN Security Council “Humanitarian Ceasefire” Resolution. (Fig. 5).
The United States is now a vassal state chanting a hollow slogan of freedom and democracy and peoples of all colors is a front seat eyewitness. Sadly, both Israel and US is noticeably too fearful to admit that having lost their industrial base, they can no longer win any peers war with conventional weaponry. Additionally with Ukraine as a prime example, there remain few lapdogs willing to be the next cannon fodder.
(iii) Hamas, Fatah, PLO, the Arab League and the Pan Islamic Movement: With a kaleidoscope of Sunnis, Shiites, Arabs, Persians, Turks and Kurds, the West used simply a divide and conquer plot and exploited the Middle East for close to 80 years. But whilst the West enjoyed an exuberant lifestyle on the back of cheap energy and resources, the developing ME economies have swapped their camels and AK47s with drones and precision missiles. After being too complacent, US and IDF finally relized through war games that an all out war with the Muslim community and at a worst case scenario means also total annihilation for Israel. Although Iran did not develop nuclear missiles, if IDF invoke the nuclear option, Pakistan’s nuclear missiles at the disposal of Iran or Saudi Arabia in retaliation. So for the time being, the opposing sides, including US is on a measured escalation. For the Muslims countries in the region, only armed militias are involved. State actors stood cautiously behind the scene in a restrained posture.
The blood feud in the Middle East between the different descendants of Abraham is as old as human history. There will be no peace until the Prince of Peace returns to the scene. By rejection of Jesus Christ as the Messiah, the Jews and the Muslims both failed to correctly interpret their heavenly mandate and will exhaust themselves to find peace. The answer has been there all along written within the 66 books of Holy Scriptures over 2000 years ago. “The meek shall inherit the earth. Put your sword in its place, for all who take the sword will perish by the sword. ” Exodus 19:5 Now therefore, if you will indeed obey My voice and keep My covenant, then you shall be a special treasure to Me above all people; for all the earth is Mine. 6 And you shall be to Me a kingdom of priests and a holy nation.' These are the words which you shall speak to the children of Israel." (Fig. 6)
2. Funding for Ukraine came to a screeching halt as US Senate voted against a bundled aid package with Ukraine and Israel funding are tied together. (Fig. 7).
An independent Senator sided with Republicans to block funding to Israel on moral grounds. Joe Biden is livid for should funding for Ukraine be splinter out, it would never again get through the Republicans. In the meantime, seven mortar rounds landed in the sprawling embassy compound in the Iraqi capital's Green Zone for the first time since the Gaza war. As the Israeli says, the vultures smell the blood once you show weakness. (Fig. 8)
This week’s financial markets:
A. Stock Market: (Fig. 9): Dow closed at 36,247 for the week, a rise of 2 points, S&P 500 +0.14% and NASDAQ +0.49%..
Mixed signals from Jobs Report and Consumer Spending, market is moving towards year end rest.
B. Debt Market: (Fig. 10): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.229%, a rise of 2 basis points.
All is not quiet on the Western Front, deposits are leaving regional banks en mass and the Fed’s Bail Out Term Facilities are maxed out (Fig. 11).
Readers are reminded a previous study showed 186 US Banks are vulnerable to Silicon Valley Bank type of collapse. The Fed Bank Term Loan Facilities only gave a short term reprieve by granting loans to banks at 130% of underlying collateral value, expiring March 2024. (Fig. 12).
As White House continued to gazump cash away from the private sector in endless wars, liquidity is progressively drained from the financial markets. Fed’s Reverse Repo has gone down from a peak of $2.42 trillion to $0.82 trillion. (Fig. 13).
The overnight Reverse Repo operation is the foundation of Money Market Fund liquidity. My calculation is by end of January, another liquidity crisis will hit the US financial market and the Fed will be forced to print creating another round of USD depreciation. (Fig. 14)
C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 15) Bitcoin (+14.80%), Uranium (+1.41%), JPY( +1.33%), NASDAQ (+0.49%), Rmb (-0.34%), Eur (-1.14%), GBP (-1.15%), Rubble (-1.66%), Gold (-3.0%), Oil (-6.64%) and Silver (-9.77%) .
Very interesting week for the currency and commodities market. Monday Asia opening (NY Sunday Night), gold and silver saw significant Chinese retail buying of physical gold and silver. Gold spiked up by 3.5% and Silver by 1.6%, Chinese dealers sought cover in the futures market outside of China. Western Big Bank Swap Dealers initially withdrew bids and let the price run then heavily shorted the market to trigger a price cascade and margin call. Paper selling continued throughout the week and Gold had an intra-week swing of $140 (6.8%). The paper Gold dump resulted in a temporary rise of USD and dealers took the opportunity to cover JPY shorts. The Anglo Americans are desperate to suppress a break away gold price from a global dedollarization drive. Such short term paper actions may impact leveraged funds but will have little impact on Central Banks and Sovereign Funds in their precious metals accumulation for national wealth preservation.
Romans 9:6 But it is not that the word of God has taken no effect. For they are not all Israel who are of Israel, 7 nor are they all children because they are the seed of Abraham; but, "IN ISAAC YOUR SEED SHALL BE CALLED." 8 That is, those who are the children of the flesh, these are not the children of God; but the children of the promise are counted as the seed. 9 For this is the word of promise: "AT THIS TIME I WILL COME AND SARAH SHALL HAVE A SON." 10 And not only this, but when Rebecca also had conceived by one man, even by our father Isaac 11 (for the children not yet being born, nor having done any good or evil, that the purpose of God according to election might stand, not of works but of Him who calls), 12 it was said to her, "THE OLDER SHALL SERVE THE YOUNGER." 13 As it is written, "JACOB I HAVE LOVED, BUT ESAU I HAVE HATED." 14 What shall we say then? Is there unrighteousness with God? Certainly not! 15 For He says to Moses, "I WILL HAVE MERCY ON WHOMEVER I WILL HAVE MERCY, AND I WILL HAVE COMPASSION ON WHOMEVER I WILL HAVE COMPASSION." 16 So then it is not of him who wills, nor of him who runs, but of God who shows mercy.
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