Decade of Struggle

Week ended December 30, 2023, interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. Decade of Struggle: As I looked back as to what attracted my attention in 2023, it dawned on me that even for the past decade (2014 to 2023), it has mainly been human struggles and conflicts. I am a firm subscriber in the cycles of life, by that I mean history tends to repeat itself. I am reluctantly convinced, however, what we have experienced for the past decade were just fore-shocks with the really ‘Big One” is yet to come. In my estimation the Old World Order is crumbling because of the following  5 reasons:

(i) Jailbreak: In August 2005, a very popular US TV series came out called “Prison Break” (Fig. 1).

The series revolves around two brothers, Lincoln Burrows and Michael Scofield; Burrows has been sentenced to death for a crime he did not commit, while Scofield devises an elaborate plan to help his brother escape prison and clear his name. It was a pleasure to watch how stealth meticulous planning and execution eventually set Lincoln free. In the process Scofield had to improvise everything because there were no tools or resources available to Scofield inside the maximum security facility. This is the feeling I got seeing Russia not only survived but thrived against the most draconian sanctions ever imposed against any country on earth. The same goes for Huawei as chips and all chip making equipment, process and materials were off limits. Then came Hamas on October 7 with crude DIY implements defeated the heavily armed and fortified elite IDF Golani Brigade. Don’t forget three cheers for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Team who brokered the Saudi Iranian reconciliation without the CIA, NSA, Mossad, US State Department or any Western intelligence ever learn of what transpired before China’s official announcement. (Fig. 2)

Intelligence failure of the West, yes certainly, but much credit to the determination, patience, hard work and long term planning to those who worked under severe oppression and constant surveillance to set themselves free.       

(ii) Leverage in Asymmetrical Warfare: In response to the Houthis De Facto naval blockade of the Red Sea, a US led operation called “Prosperity Guardian” was launched to escort merchant fleet into the Red Sea with much fanfare.  Some Western public may be fooled that things should soon be back to normal but any military analyst will point out the operation will fail. Firstly, the only real resource in the coalition was provided by the US (Fig 3)

Other countries were coerced into signing off in name only and scantly provided support. Reason, the protection area to cover is huge and the number of guardians few and far in between. (Average daily traffic through the Suez Canal is 56 ships). Besides it is shameful to associate oneself with genocidal war mongers. Furthermore, the potential combat arithmetic is simple, a missile armed Cruiser only carries 90 missiles, so an entire Aircraft Carrier Strike Group with 1 Aircraft Carrier, 2 Guided Missile Cruisers, 2 Anti Aircraft Warships (with Anti-aircraft guns),and 1-2 Anti Submarine Destroyers or Frigates actually is not armed to fight mosquitoe like drone swarms. Each guided missile on board a US ship costs between US$1.5 to $4 million. By comparison, the Houthis can launch hundreds of dynamite loaded drones costing only US$2000 a piece or slightly more missiles for between $20,000 to $50,000 a sortie. A few elephants cannot trample and eradicate a swarm but a relentless attack by soldier ants can easily wear out an elephant. Remember the Saudi led coalition against the Yemen started in 2015 with the backing of US, UK, France, Canada and South Korea could not defeat the Houthis after 5 years. The Houthis does not have an army base to be targeted similar to Gaza. The indiscriminate bombing planned by US intelligence and command, staffed with US Military personnel and using US fighter jets and equipment produced little military success except a humanitarian catastrophe.  With full knowledge, US so far could only strike Syria but dared not touch the Houthis, Hezbollah or Iran. Wonder why Netanyahu has to reach out to Xi and Putin for solutions. (Fig. 4)

Israel is burning $300 million a day in war effort and Europe is entering into recession, pressure is mounting daily.

(iii) Conscripts and Hotchpotch Army:  Both the Ukrainian army and the IDF is manned by Reserves and Conscripts. Independent military analyst and ex-CIA officer Larry Johnson pointed out from the profiles of KIA IDF soldiers that their training and experience levels are far below what is required in a trench warfare in Gaza. A comparison with the US Marine Corp standard of training and experience pre-requisite for battle with the IDF KIA average age showed young Israeli soldiers were sent into battle ill prepared. IDF casualty numbers is a telltale sign. (Fig. 5)  

 Ukraine has already lost the bulk of its live fighting force and is conscripting the aged (70 years old), the youth (17 years old) and even pregnant women to the front line. (Fig. 6)

(iv) Cult Like Ideologies: Economist Professor Michael Hudson described Ukraine and Israel are both Genocidal Apartheid States. The Apartheid first began with the Nezis in Germany. It is a policy founded on the idea of maintaining racial purity in a nation. In the extreme, other ethnicity are killed or driven out of their national boundaries. For the Banderan Nazis in Ukraine, they want to rid of all Russian culture immediately when they came into power in 2014 after the US backed Maidan Revolution. For Israel, the target is the Palestinians. US and her coalition is the biggest Apartheid State with policies to subdue the whole world under their rule using extreme violence.   On my December 10^th 2023 Blog, I have already profiled the ideological makeup of the Israeli population, the psychological preparation for today’s ethnic cleansing of Gaza started 15 years ago with a book called “The King’s Torah”. Written by extreme right wing settler rabbis, the book made justification fortried to justify killing of Palestinians including the unarmed and babies. (Fig. 7).

The King’s Torah is widely circulated in the Israeli military, particularly among the Officer ranks. With Cult like ideologies, it is not by happenstance that the world has turned against the Western Globalist elites.

(v) Major Strategic Failure: Hubris of the West has violated the first cardinal rule in Sun Tse’s Art of War. The famous words of Sun Tzu in Chapter 3 verse 6 reads ”Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” (Fig. 8).

Politicians in the Western Alliance simply do not know or try to understand their adversaries. Their hubris led them to believe their ability to spend money trumps all. After Kissinger, whom they refused to listen, they are now fighting blind and so lamented by the CIA Director through the WSJ. (Fig. 9).

2. The 2023 financial markets:

A. Stocks & Bonds:The Federal Reserve in December indicate the interest rate hike cycle is drawing to a conclusion. Spreads between GGYR2 and Effective Fed Funds Rate begins to widen negatively on July 6^th 2023 in anticipation of a looming recession as the Fed broadcast its policy of keeping interest rates “Higher and Longer”. (Fig. 10).

By October, the US stock Market began to rebound in anticipation of a Fed Pivot and finished the year close to or exceeded its historic highs but mainly focused on the 7 AI related tech stocks. Contrarians believe the delayed effect of interest rate hikes, particularly in the Banking, Corporate Bond, Commercial Real Estates and Roll Over of Fixed Rate Home Mortgage Markets will cause a catastrophic crash in 2024. In 2023, US banks have laid off 60,000 workers which is a record since the 2008 Lehmann event. (Fig. 11) .

In 2024, UST needs to refinance US$7 trillion of Federal Debt plus current year’s deficits. With Global De-dollarization means the Federal Reserve will be the only buyer of last resort. Based on the latest Reverse Repo release, I have revised a liquidity crunch of the Treasury Market to come in mid February 2024. (Fig. 12)

A massive printing of USD is therefore imminent around that time. The trigger will be a severe crash than an avalanche of helicopter money. This debauchery of fiat currencies can only mean the high inflation environment in the West would migrate to hyperinflation. The oncoming volatility tsunami would also being civil disobedience. It is likely that wars will be used as a tool to divert public’s anger against incompetent and corrupt politicians.  

B. 2023 Different Asset Class Performance: (Fig. 13) Bitcoin (+154.36%), Uranium (+83.97%), NASDAQ (+55.43%), S&P 500 (+25.09%), Gold (+13.09%), GBP (+5.16%), Eur (+3.46%), Silver (-0.5%), CNY (-2.83%) JPY( -2.08%), Oil (-9.44%), and Rubble (-18.09%).

Do you double down on winners or pick a dark horse underdog?

2024 will not be an easy year to transverse and my prayers is that you find the true light that will guide you to peace and well being. I have found my Way, Truth and Life. Be blessed.

Revelation 18:9  "The kings of the earth who committed fornication and lived luxuriously with her will weep and lament for her, when they see the smoke of her burning, 10  standing at a distance for fear of her torment, saying, 'Alas, alas, that great city Babylon, that mighty city! For in one hour your judgment has come.' 11  "And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore.