Deal or No Deal

The fortnight ended on February 28, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past two weeks are:

1. Deal or No Deal: Has anyone been sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for a major war to erupt in the Middle East?  If they have been, then it was an awful waste of time and energy. All the movement and display of military assets was, as some analysts say, a Kabuki theatre. (Fig. 1).

Kabuki is a 400-year-old traditional Japanese performing art renowned for its highly stylized drama, elaborate costumes, and dramatic makeup (keshō). Performed exclusively by male actors—including those specializing in female roles (onnagata)—it combines dance, music, and mime to depict historical events and moral conflicts. On my January 31^st  2025 Blog, I listed 5 reasons why I think a US strike was unlikely and that the chips are stacked as a bluff. Shall we see what hands the opposing team holds? (Fig. 2).

What I asked Germini AI to draw is a suit called “Pretty without a Kicker” - a strong suit on the 4 cards revealed, but the hidden card was a spoiler.

(i) The Zionist Suit: After the 2025 12 day war, the Arab world understood that Israel, with a small land mass and dense population, could not sustain a full-scale missile retaliation by Iran. If I had read Natanyahu correctly, the urgency to finish Iran was with presumptions that (a) Trump is the last US President he can manipulate for a full-scale attack on Iran. (b) Natanyahu had gone all in with Mossad and CIA “agent provocateur” assets to destabilize Iran for a regime change. (c) Both Israel and US believed in an opinion poll funded by USAID and National Endowment for Democracy that 80% of the Iranian population would rise up in rebellion against an unstable theocratic government. The hope was chaos instigated by “agent provocateurs”  would cause the Iranian administration to crumble, weaken its defense and made easy a decapitation strike. 

In my opinion, the flaws in Natanyahu’s plan were (a) Had Natanyahu and his settler colonists backers truly followed the Old Testament, he would have known from Isaiah 13:17 that the Iranians could not be corrupted like the Venezuelans nor the Iraqis and shut down their defense to the barbarians. (Fig. 3)

and (b) That Geo-security concerns would prompt Iran to full Russian and Chinese support that not only neutralized CIA embedded Starlink communications but allowed total incapacitation  of the CIA and Mossad agents planted in situ in Iran.  

For Trump, he was put on the spot by Natanyahu because the 2025 bombing of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities was a failure despite Trump’s claim was a total annihilation. Any US involvement with a ME armed conflict would make a mockery of the US National Security Strategy released only December 4 2025, the “Donroe Doctrine”. (Fig. 4).

Insiders familiar with the war plan development leaked that Natanyahu threatened Trump that like it or not Israel would go alone if necessary and when faced with an Iranian retaliation, the Zionists backers in the US Senate, Congress and the Executive Branch would force Trump to intervene anyway. So Trump was reluctantly dragged into the conflict but conditional upon (a) the regime change destabilization effort would be effective and (b) the deployment of US military assets would only be auxiliary as a pressure tactic.

Reluctance by Trump was not without reasons because (i) The US Military Industrial Complex is deficient of a serge capacity in the event of a peers war. Capacity for standard onboard battleship air defence missiles, the SM-3 and SM-6 by Raytheon is only 600 per year.  Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has purposely leaked that depleted U.S. munitions stocks and limited allied support pose an acute risk to any Iran operation. (Fig. 5).

Iran with an arsenal of over 2000 missiles and thousands of battle hardened drones could totally deplete air defense for the two US Carrier Strike Groups within days. With a standard complement of around 300 anti air missiles per US Carrier Strike Group and it will take at least two interceptors for every incoming sortie, the odds are not in favor for the massive floating targets. For students who followed the truce between the Houthis and the US in May 2025, the memory is still fresh that the two US Carrier Strike Groups (Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Groups) could not even defeat the unsophisticated armed militias after 6 months. (ii) The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League Countries have denied use of their air base to launch an attack on Iran. (Fig. 6).

 The logistical nightmare is even with Jordan and Saudi Arabia cooperation, the flight distance from the Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan and Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia far exceeded the combat radius of F16, F22 and F35 and hence require midair refueling. (Fig. 7).

The refueling tankers are not stealth equipped and hence makes these fighter jets and bombers visible. F15 has a longer combat radius but is not a stealth fighter. Once West Asia airbases are off limits, the only available platforms to launch an air strike would be Israel and the two aircraft carriers. (Fig. 8).

The same flight path calculations apply and with a reduced efficiency. The USS Abraham Lincoln is a 36 years old craft with legacy jet takeoffs and landings whilst in theory the USS Gerald Ford is equipped with electric catapults but the catapults has not been functioning properly and can only launch F35. Gerald Ford’s runway is known to be too short for jet fighters like F15, F16 and F22s. Please note the narration above is all from open source and what would be the combined intelligence of Iran, Russia and China but every US airbase, equipment and movements tracked and measured.

(ii) The Iranian Suit: US sanctions against Iran has been in place since November 1979 for over 45 years. Despite numerous attempts using extreme pressures, like the 8 year Iraq and Iranian war, for regime change, Iran survived and developed a formidable attack arsenal of home grown drones and missiles on minimum resources. Iran like China is an ancient civilization state of Medo-Persian origin from BC550 and with it deep human intelligence, culture and conviction. The 12 day war in 2025 has proved modern expensive military assets of US and Israel could not prevail over Iran. Whereas in 2025 Iranian hubris of self determination has prevented the government initially from seeking help from Russia and China, since that time, the existential threat has prompted Iran to open her doors fully to other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As China and Russia do not want escalation into WWIII or even a major regional war, the military assets provided were defensive in nature but will prove adequate but not excessive. It is believed that China had provided YLC-8B anti-stealth radar that are linked to the military grade BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) capable of spotting all US stealth aircraft up a radius of 700Km. Independent analysts like Alastair Crooke and Pepe Escobar both commented the Chinese had enabled the system to support existing Iranian missiles and the upgrade will pose a serious threat to US and Israeli offensive air assets. It is believed that Russia has provided S300 and S400 air defense systems. All these together will inflict unavoidable heavy casualties to any and all incoming aggressors.

The political objective for Iran/Russia/China is simple enough, Iran does not need to win a war with Israel and US but what has been been put in place will be more than enough to defeat a Natanyahu Prime Ministership and Trump Presidency.

(iii) Stop Press: Both US and China has called for an NEO (“Noncombatant Evacuation Operation) of its key ME Embassies and there is wide speculation that an attack will be launched this weekend. My Christian worldview is WWIII is close but not yet.  

A month ago I posted the following chart which showed a US Current Account Annual and Cumulative Deficit of $1.2 trillion and $31.5 trillion. (Fig. 9).

There is only one country in the world capable of funding the looming US Deficit and that country is China. In an absence of China to the party, US will need to gobble up a middle power country the size of Netherlands or Saudi Arabia each and every year. This explains the desperation and hunger of the US Empire and its attitude towards Venezuela, Denmark, Canada and Iran since Liberation Day. US has crossed the Rubicon and WWIII will happen. My prognosis is however, hyperinflation will come first and we have less than one year to prepare. Be forewarned and keep safe.

Isaiah 13:17  "Behold, I will stir up the Medes against them, Who will not regard silver; And as for gold, they will not delight in it. 18  Also their bows will dash the young men to pieces, And they will have no pity on the fruit of the womb; Their eye will not spare children. 19  And Babylon, the glory of kingdoms, The beauty of the Chaldeans' pride, Will be as when God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah. 20  It will never be inhabited, Nor will it be settled from generation to generation; Nor will the Arabian pitch tents there, Nor will the shepherds make their sheepfolds there. 21  But wild beasts of the desert will lie there, And their houses will be full of owls; Ostriches will dwell there, And wild goats will caper there.22  The hyenas will howl in their citadels, And jackals in their pleasant palaces. Her time is near to come, And her days will not be prolonged."