Painted into A Corner

The fortnight ended on February 14, 2026, interesting news items to look at for the past two weeks are:

1. Painted into A Corner: I suppose few could imagine the speed with which Donald Trump had painted himself into a corner in just the first month of 2026. (Fig. 1).

Two years ago in February 3 2024 I posted the US Administration and the Military had insufficient bandwidth to deal with all the issues coming at it. Rather than admitting failures and re-prioritize allocations, third rate politicians in seeking self preservation often double down and make bad choices for short term optics and accelerate their decline. (Fig. 2).

This is especially true for persons with a narcissistic personality disorder (NPD). NPD is a mental health condition characterized by a long-term pattern of grandiosity, an overwhelming need for admiration, and a lack of empathy. Individuals with NPD often possess a fragile self-esteem, are sensitive to criticism, and frequently exploit others to maintain their superior image, causing significant distress in relationships and daily functioning. Let’s take a closer look at current events with a view to estimate a timing for the decline of the Anglo American Empire.

(a) Iran -  Despite sensational MSM headlines as to an immanent attack against Iran by US in late January and early days of February, 2026, the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group actually pulled back 1400 Km away from Iranian waters. (Fig. 3).

In the previous Blog we reported that China and Russia will not sit idle and watch US/Israel destroy Iran and place a military stranglehold on oil supplies and key logistics choke points in the Middle East. By a public display of satellite images of US military ground and naval assets targeting Iran, China is letting the West understand she will not entertain untoward decorum in a resource war. (Fig. 4).

With a likely deployment of Russian S300 and China HQ-9E in air defense for Iran, neither US nor Israel could just walk all over Iran with its fighter jets and bombers similar to the June 12 day war in 2024. (Fig. 5).  

We have previously highlighted the obstacles US and Israel is facing. For US and Trump in particular, a kinetic war with Iran would risks losing Israel and all the US  military base in the ME and thereby handing over dominance in the area to Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, both countries have aspirations to join BRICS. Yes, Iran may become a failed state but like Iraq and Afghanistan, complete US control will not be possible even with US troops stationed in situ. For Trump’s Zionists backers, anything short of a sudden and complete destruction of Iran without retaliation against Israel will be considered a failure and thereby jeopardize Trump’s mid term election. The 1999 Kosovo war showed Serbia was able to withstood 78 days of continuous US bombing without degradation of her air defense. This time round Iran will be a far tougher combatant and US military supplies and logistics a lot more difficult as compared with Serbia. Should Trump double down and even assuming a victory over Iran, US would have left herself exposed to other adversaries who would rise up and challenge US in a weakened state.

As we stood back and watch how situations develop, it was obvious that Trump made decisions on the fly. Different parties of vested interests are pushing the US military in opposing geographical directions and there neither was time nor resources for White House to follow through with any single agenda.  The latest rumor is for the Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group to leave the Caribbeans for deployment in the ME. (Fig. 6)

Honestly, has Project Venezuela been declared “Mission Accomplished”. Has the “Pirates of the Caribbean” return home with the bounty. (Fig. 7).

(b) Project Venezuela - Trump’s donor Vitol is offering China Petroleum Venezuela oil at a discount to Brent. (Fig. 8).

China Petroleum naturally declined. So much for trying to choke China oil supplies from Venezuela. Guess it is not easy as when there is no other buyer around except China.

(c) Governor Carney - The International Go Federation Hall of Fame welcomes new entrant Canadian PM Mark Carney as a distinguished Go Player. Carney joins such luminaries as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin who have inspired millions in their cool, calm and collected moves against bully checker players. (Fig. 9).

Joking aside, Canada just counter US tariff threats with a squeeze of electricity export to North East US, vital gas and oil supplies and green aluminum that may cause a cardiac arrest for major industries in US.

On another Platform, Donald Trump was awarded the 2026 Flying Fickle Finger of Fate Trophy for his amazing ability to create satires so naturally without premeditation. (Fig, 10).

2. Debt Death Spiral and Super Commodity Cycle - (Fig. 11). We have tabled the Chart before but just updated with Treasury and Fed numbers to November 2025. (usually two months time lag).

As predicted in my Blog dated November 7 2025, the Fed started QE in early December because the US Government exhausted all the purchasing power of US domestic bond buyers as net new Treasury issues overwhelmed money supply. (Fig. 12).

No matter how the Fed spin the debt monetization as just a technical issue to ensure ample liquidity in the financial markets, students of financial markets are all aware insufficient demand has plagued the Treasury market for years. The sad sage is even camouflaging synthetic bond demand using Cayman Island Hedge Funds and Swaps has run out of elbow room. (Fig. 13).

The telltale sign is US has to export an increasing quantity of non-monetary gold when virtually all Central Banks are adding gold to the national reserves. (Fig. 14).

At $5000/oz, the entire value of US Gold mine production is approximately $25 billion which is not much more than one month export of US Non-monetary gold. Ever wonder why Fort Knox gold is never audited.

So from 2025, resources took on a new meaning as the world woke up finally that government promissory notes and bonds depreciates as soon as it is printed. Hyperinflation is coming this year because universal QE is guaranteed to avoid payment default by G7 nations. The Vault Project is a prime example as government will borrow, print, pirate and kill to secure real tangible resources. The hype on AI and Mag 7 is old news and the struggle for resource is here (Fig. 15).

Ecclesiastes 3:1  To everything there is a season, A time for every purpose under heaven: 2  A time to be born, And a time to die; A time to plant, And a time to pluck what is planted; 3  A time to kill, And a time to heal; A time to break down, And a time to build up; 4  A time to weep, And a time to laugh; A time to mourn, And a time to dance; 5  A time to cast away stones, And a time to gather stones; A time to embrace, And a time to refrain from embracing; 6  A time to gain, And a time to lose; A time to keep, And a time to throw away; 7  A time to tear, And a time to sew; A time to keep silence, And a time to speak; 8  A time to love, And a time to hate; A time of war, And a time of peace.