Week ended March 9, 2024. interesting news items to look at this week were:
1. National Security or Just a Threat to the Ruling Elites: The opening paragraph of Charles Dickens “Tale of Two Cities” says “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way,”. (Fig. 1).
This week China had its Lianghui (Dual Meetings of National People’s Congress and People's Political Consultative Conference) and in US Biden gave his State of the Union Address. For China, the emphasis was to build productivity in new frontiers whilst not forsaking traditional industries. China is to use new technologies to upgrade existing industries and be smarter, greener towards higher value added. In Biden’s address, he warned “freedom and democracy are under attack both at home and overseas” Much odf Biden’s address was criticism towards his political competitor, lobbying for Jewish American support, funding for Ukraine and cosmetic charity to Gaza, then he turned to abortion, reproductive rights and finally the economy and how he inherited an economy on the brink because of the Covid pandemic. Biden’s insecurity and self consciousness is oozing out from every paragraph of his speech. Sir Winston Churchill said, “The nation will find it very hard to look up to the leaders who are keeping their ears to the ground." (Fig. 2)
My take is if a leader fails to cast his vision for the future, why should anyone buy into his present.
(i) Magnificent 7 becomes just 4 sisters: Since the beginning of 2024, Tesla and Apple has lost its lustre when pressures from its peer competitors out of China became just too much to bear. Not only had their stock price continued to decline but Apple also announced a retreat from its smart EV project with write offs of $10 billion and 2,000 employees to be sacked. Added to difficulties encountered by Google on its AI Gemini Project, these three Tech giants have all under-performed the S&P 500. (Fig. 3).
In the Chart I also added Goldman Sachs, the quintessential Jewish Capital play which is also facing lean times ahead. When NY and California is in trouble, the foundation of the Democrats are shaken.
(ii) Victoria Nuland Resigns: The architect and instigator of the Ukraine Proxy War against Russia, Victoria Nuland, the third-highest-ranking US diplomat known for her strong backing of Ukraine, is set to resign from her position. (Fig. 4)
In one word, despite the rhetoric to the contrary that Russia will not prevail, the West has lost all hope of a victory in the Proxy war. Comments from Larry Johnson, independent Intelligence Analyst and Ex-CIA was “ Victoria Nuland Heads for the Exit — Is a Rat Leaving the Sinking Ship”
The take home point is attempts to encircle China by the Anglo Americans through every means has fully turned the table in 2024. In 2018 when I first began to write a weekly Blog of geo-political and economic events, I identified the US-China Conflict as the Chu Han Contention (楚漢相爭).No matter how the attacker Emperor Chu (US) taunt Emperor Han (China) for a show down, Han maintained his defensive posture until the Chu’s army exhausted its rations and supplies and has to retreat. It is plain to see there is a divergent of interest in the West between the ruling elites and its population at large. (The top 1% of the population in the US owns more than 50% of the nation’s wealth and the top 10% owns more than 90%). The deprived masses are kept at bay through cheap bread and entertained with blood and gore at the Colosseum. The “middle class” are intoxicated by virtual prosperity with illusory asset value in a bubble economy measured in a debauched currency. Last week I said the wake up starting pistol was fired and my friends we better be prepared for the quick unravelling that is to come.
The week’s financial market
A. Stock Market: DJI dropped 365 points or 0.93% for the week. (Fig. 5).
The market finally realized the Fed cannot contain inflation and underneath all Government reported bullish headline numbers lies a serious weakened economy. This is especially true when after the reported bullish numbers and when off the limelight, the figures are consistently revised downwards. (Fig. 6).
For the week Apple was down --3.15%, Tesla down -11.74%, Google down -0.16%, Amazon down -1.23%, Microsoft down -1.75%, Meta up 0.55% and Nvidia up 4.04%. As mentioned in the preceding paragraph, the Magnificent 7 is now just 4 sisters and as the algorithms of ETF goes, these stocks are amplified on their advances as well as their declines. Sooner or later as over the top hype meet up with real life competition, their fall will be as brutal as the excitement generated by their rise.
B. Debt Market: (Fig. 7): USGG10YR ended the week at 4.077%, a rate drop of 10.5 basis points.
This week’s bullish employment figures release could no longer enthused the market of a robust economy as reality finally catches up to hype. The cash and credit market will face two liquidity crunch event with the first hurdle falling on Monday, March 11, being the expiry of the Bail Out Facility (“BTLM” - Bank Term Lending Program as a rescue facility from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, banks can turn in their underwater US Treasuries for funding up to 130% of their market value). The second hurdle is liquidity of the Money Market Funds when the Federal Reserve Reverse Repo parking of excess liquidity will run dry sometimes in April 2024. (Fig. 8).
C. Currencies, Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for the week: (Fig. 9) Bitcoin (+10.00%), Silver (+7.87%), Gold (+6.79%), JPY( +2.40%), GBP (+1.75%), Eur (+1.13%), S&P 500 (+0.48%), Rubble (+0.44%), CNY (+0.19%), Oil (-0.31%), NASDAQ (-0.4%) and Uranium (-0.7%) .
Zechariah 13:7 "Awake, O sword, against My Shepherd, Against the Man who is My Companion," Says the LORD of hosts. "Strike the Shepherd, And the sheep will be scattered; Then I will turn My hand against the little ones. 8 And it shall come to pass in all the land," Says the LORD, "That two-thirds in it shall be cut off and die, But one-third shall be left in it: 9 I will bring the one-third through the fire, Will refine them as silver is refined, And test them as gold is tested. They will call on My name, And I will answer them. I will say, 'This is My people'; And each one will say, 'The LORD is my God.' "
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