The Russian Art of War

Week ended March 30, 2024. interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. The Russian Art of War: This week’s heading is the title of a book written by Jacques Baud published in January 2024. (Fig. 1).

I have not read the book but have just listened to a 3 hours interview of the author and came away being reinforced on my belief that when the Anglo Americans tried to exert full spectrum dominance against China or instigated a proxy war against Russia, they had not actually worked out the effort and resources required for a victory. Worse still, the Anglo Americans have refused to revise their game plan even as defeat is staring right into their eyes. At the precipice of the Empire crumbling, as rats are jumping ship, tough talk and lies continued. It is so sad that a repeat of the Vietnam and Afghanistan style of retreat will happen in 2024 that would cause a total chaos for the world.

(i) UN Security Council Resolution against an Israeli Genocide of Palestinians:  As UNSC passed a resolution to demand an immediate cease fire by Israel in Gaza (Fig. 2),

White House National Security Council John Kirby says in a press briefing, “It’s a non-binding resolution, so there’s no impact at all on Israel’s ability to continue to go after Hamas,” (Fig. 3).

Such woolly thinking and defiance.  Just one day later, UN human rights expert report Israel committed genocide in Gaza. (Fig. 4)

(ii) Britain only has resources to fight Russia for two months: Britain could not fight Russia for more than two months, the Deputy Chief of Defence Staff has admitted. Lt Gen Sir Rob Magowan said the Armed Forces would have to manage the “operational risk” that came with not having the resources he would like in future wars. (Fig. 5).

Why start a proxy war against Russia and why Boris Johnson did not give peace a chance when he stopped the peace negotiation on April 9th, 2022. (Fig. 6).

(iii) Governing By Faked News: The White House Administration boast of a robust US economy is just toying with statistics. Employment figures from the Philadelphia Fed showed the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are "missing" when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS' woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls "data". (Fig. 7).

Ever wonder why the Fed is alternating by verbal suasion between hawkish and dovish interest rate statements, they need the stock market to stay optimistic but must maintain a high enough interest rate to fund $1 trillion Federal new debt every 100 days.  

I am just a consolidator of Western MSM published news but when cross referenced with historical and other data points, truth cannot simply be whitewashed by lies and propaganda.  

2. Chinese Art of Diplomacy: After the conclusion of the China Development Forum in Beijing, there was an unscheduled meeting of Xi and US Business CEOs. The invitation was not signed by President Xi but in anticipation, an absolute majority of CEO invitees extended their China stay to meet up with Xi. The interesting part of the last minute unscheduled invitation was it made a mockery of Western MSM narrative that China is desperate. The funnest part is even when Bloomberg posted an unbiased headline, the picture it showed was a lone President Xi looking towards heaven in a prayerful mood  - waiting. (Fig. 8).

So much for a negative campaign. (Fig. 9) is a photo line up of the attendees with a conspicuous absence of Tim Cook of Apple.

After Boeing, Cook should be doubly careful of relying too much on State sponsored export sales as a substitute for innovation and excellence in engineering. With Mi’s launch of a Porsche killer EV just 3 years from drawing board to market, Apple has a lot of soul searching after writing off $10 billion and 10 years effort on its failed EV endeavour. This should also be a rude awakening on how much lead time does Nvidia really possess before competition heats up on AI chips.

First quarter 2024 financial market performance as follows:

A. Stock Market: Performance of key global stock indexes as follows: 1. Japan Nikki (+20.66%), 2. German DEC-0.03% (+10.2%), 3. US S&P (+10.16%), 4. Russia MOEX (+8.89%), 5. France CAC (+8.78%), 6. US NASDAQ (+8.49%), 7. US DJI (+5.61%), 8. India BSE (+4.35%), 9. UK FTSE (+3.01%), 10. South Korean KOPSI (+2.85%), 11. China SSEI (+1.63%), 12. Singapore STI ( -0.03%), 13. Hong Kong HIS (-1.47%) and 14. Brazil IBOV (-3.7%). (Fig. 10)

Japan and India has been the major beneficiary of investment funds switching out of China and Hong Kong but still like to remain in Asia. In US, the hype and liquidity driven index by the Magnificent 7 performance in 2023 has lost its lustre because of competition from China and is now down to just 4 sisters with serious threat from Tik Tok overtaking Meta. Hence the coercion of disposal by US Congress of Tik Tok to wholly American owned. Now that Trump’s Truth Social has achieved a market cap of $8 billion (Fig. 11)

with only $3 million in revenue and operating losses of $49 million, highly profitable Tik Tok with $14.3 billion in revenue for 2023 would most likely be out of reach for most US investors. (Fig. 12)  

B. Debt Market: Yield on USGG10YR jumped from 3.866% at the end of 2023 to 4.206% at the end of Q1, 2024, an increase of 34 basis points. (Fig. 13).

This is equivalent to a bond price decline of 2.5%. With a typical equity/bond mix, an average US household portfolio gain would be 2.56% for Q1 2024 versus inflation for the period of 3.2%, hence still struggling to keep one’s head above water.

C. Commodities and Precious Metals: Trading results for Q1, 2024: (Fig. 14) Bitcoin (+66.15%), Oil (+12.86%), S&P 500 (+10.16%), NASDAQ (+8.49%), Gold (+8.28%), Silver (+5.01%), GBP (-0.83%), CNY (-1.71%), Eur (-2.25%), Uranium (-3.15%), Rubble (-3.36%) and JPY( -6.77%).

For Q1 2024, Bitcoin has put on a spectacular performance of 66% but I just like to remind readers that 1.93% of Bitcoin holders owns 92.85% of value of all Bitcoins, so orchestrating its value up and down on a very thinly ownership basis is as easy as a fourth tier penny stock. (Fig. 15).

The rise in price for Bitcoin this season came from its introduction of ETF on Spot Bitcoin. This playbook is just a repeat of the rise in crypto in May 2021, two months before the IPO of the Crypto Exchange Coinbase. In that round Bitcoin rose 80% to US$60,000 before crashing to below $20,000 just 15 months later. (Fig. 16).

All I can say is good luck to those who wants excitement on these pump and dump trades. As the old swindlers says “橋唔怕舊最緊要受” which can be translated as “old trick is just as good so long as buyers remains unaware”.   

Luke 14:28  For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it— 29  lest, after he has laid the foundation, and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, 30  saying, 'This man began to build and was not able to finish.'  31  Or what king, going to make war against another king, does not sit down first and consider whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against him with twenty thousand? 32  Or else, while the other is still a great way off, he sends a delegation and asks conditions of peace. 33  So likewise, whoever of you does not forsake all that he has cannot be My disciple.