The Gambler

Week ended March 23, 2024. interesting news items to look at this week were:

1. The Gambler: In my September 9, 2023 Blog, I speculated that the Ukraine War should end on 8, August 2024. I would here like to take an interim assessment as whether the end of this proxy war against Russia is near or was I way off target and what data points have emerged since that time.

(i) Amateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics - This famous quote from General Omar Bradley during WWII rings as true today as 80 years ago. (Fig. 1)

Ukraine is now running empty on fighting men, weapons, munitions and air defense systems. The biggest failure of NATO is in having a bunch of generals who are but yes men that only gave answers their political bosses wanted to hear. Sadly, when politicians were deceived by their own propaganda spin and convinced of their virtual strength through inflated nominal GDP numbers and understand not the reality of a productive physical economy, the only certain outcome is failure. Why Russia can out produce by a factor of 3 the munitions of all the members of NATO combined is no secret. Such data points can be gleamed from open sources. The first ingredient is black powder which is used as an igniter and there is only one manufacturer in Louisiana in US. (Fig. 2).

The second important ingredient is nitrocellulose powder. China has a 70% world market share of the short fibre cotton required for nitrocellulose and has predominantly gone to supply Russia. Supplies to Europe stopped in 2023, when the Anglo Americans and the Europeans has not even figured out its importance in their war strategy. (Fig. 3).  

This is the difference between a Purpose Driven Supply Chain to a Profit Driven Supply Chain.

(ii) The Gaza War: We all remembered it was just one week before the Gaza War, Sullivan, US National Security Advisor,  rattled off a long list of positive developments in the Middle East, developments that were allowing the Biden administration to focus on other regions and other problems. A truce was holding in Yemen. Iranian attacks against U.S. forces had stopped. America’s presence in Iraq was “stable.” (Fig. 4).

Also one week into the Gaza War, Janet Yellen, US Secretary of the Treasury, told Sky News, US can ‘certainly afford’ wars on two fronts. (Fig. 5)

Back in summer of 2023, we all knew there were many potential hot spots and Gaza flared up. What we did not expect was the US Administration was staffed with officers that were below the intelligence of normal matured adults who simply pay attention to world events. This certainly is a data point to the end of Ukrainian War to Russian advantage.

Yesterday, China and Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution proposed by the US to urge a ceasefire in Gaza. (Fig. 6).

What MSM did not mention was the reason behind the veto. China and Russia simply told US to stop pussyfooting on urging but do the right thing just to make an official resolution for cease fire. China and Russia will not be an accomplice to the hypocrisy in issues of genocide.

(iii) The Weimar Triangle: There was a divergent interpretation of Macron, President of France, call to send troops into Ukraine. I tend to agree with those who believe Macron’s call was not truly intended to directly engage Russia in war but a pre-emptive approach to take the initiative for Europe’s self defense back into European hands. This approach is preferred than being hijacked by the Anglo Americans to prop up a declining empire at Europe’s expense. France, Germany and Poland all need a pretext to build up their defense capability away from the intelligent surveillance of the CIA. (Fig. 7)

What’s more, the remaining days of Biden or the possibility of a second Trump term would not be happy days for Europe or the Weimar Triangle. With Paris Olympics to start in the Summer, toying with sending 2000 soldiers into Ukraine is a ridiculously silly gesture. I give Macron more credit than assuming he would actually be pixxing into the wind. (Fig. 8) .

(iv) The Glide Bombs: As the Ukraine Proxy War migrate into its third year, Russia has come up with upgrades to its legacy Soviet era dumb bombs into a cheap modern precision and deadly weapon. Equipped with Unified Module for Gliding and Guidance (“UMPK”), the wing kit will transform a crude ‘dumb’ bomb into a weapon that is relatively cheap, accurate and useable from a standoff range. Those are all characteristics that spell trouble for Ukraine’s hard-pressed air defense forces as well as NATO.

The hubris of neocons calling Russia a “Gas Station masquerading as a country” proves at hind sight rather deadly. (Fig. 9)

In conclusion, I will play for you a song from Kenny Rogers called “The Gambler”.

We should all pay attention to the following lyrics:

You've got to know when to hold 'em 

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for counting

When the dealin's done.

Every gambler knows

That the secret to survivin'

Is knowin' what to throw away

And knowin' what to keep

'Cause every hand's a winner

And every hand's a loser

And the best that you can hope for is to die

In your sleep.

Have a nice weekend.

Daniel 4:34  And at the end of the time I, Nebuchadnezzar, lifted my eyes to heaven, and my understanding returned to me; and I blessed the Most High and praised and honored Him who lives forever: For His dominion is an everlasting dominion, And His kingdom is from generation to generation. 35  All the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing; He does according to His will in the army of heaven And among the inhabitants of the earth. No one can restrain His hand Or say to Him, "What have You done?" 36  At the same time my reason returned to me, and for the glory of my kingdom, my honor and splendor returned to me. My counselors and nobles resorted to me, I was restored to my kingdom, and excellent majesty was added to me. 37  Now I, Nebuchadnezzar, praise and extol and honor the King of heaven, all of whose works are truth, and His ways justice. And those who walk in pride He is able to put down.