Smoke Screens and Mirrors

The week ended on July 27, 2024. Interesting news items to look at this week are:

Smoke Screens and Mirrors: Nearly a year ago I posted a piece on September 9, 2023 ton this Blog titled “The Ukraine War will end on 8^th August 2024”. The estimate was not so much on the military outcome but the days required for the loser to psychologically accept a defeat. This week we saw Zelensky softened to express ending the Ukraine war through diplomatic means. (Fig. 1).

Contemporaneously, Ukraine’s FM went to Beijing to seek help in opening up a dialogue with Russia. (Fig. 2).

Amongst the chaotic politics in the West since the Biden/Trump televised debate, there is no shortage in speculation as to changes that are taking place in the global world order. Piercing into the Palace Politics of the Deep State, the events that happened over the past month may not be what it seems. In my opinion, the Anglo American Empire would not simply admit defeat although prima facie the Ukrainian military has been decimated since the failure of the Summer 2023 Counter Offense. It has also become increasingly clear that on a conventional war basis NATO could never defeat Russia. What then would constitute a not so shameful retreat like Afghanistan must be a subject of much anxiety with the Western elites.  Would a plot like the Minsk Agreement of 2014 be resurrected. Could the West possibly entered into an armistice to bide time in order to restock and regroup for a later war. What Smoke Screens and Mirrors would be necessary to disguise such heinous schemes. My thesis for the foregoing are summarized in the data points below: 

(i) A premature televised debate between Biden & Trump: Never before in US politics has there been a two candidate debate televised live between the Democrats and the Republicans so early as even before their respective confirmation as Presidential Nominees at their own National Party Convention. Nonpartisan intelligence analyst Larry Johnson reported that he first heard of a plan to replace Biden with Michelle Obama over a year ago. That Biden’s mental degeneration was well known. That CNN sets new guidelines to provide candidates with a pen, notepad, and a bottle of water on stage; however, no props or written notes will be allowed. Campaign staff were be prohibited from interacting with their respective candidates during intermissions, denying them the opportunity for strategic consultations or to touch up the candidates’ appearance.White House travel pool reporters were also denied presence to give prompts and context to the debaters presentation. All these would expose the weaknesses of Biden. (Fig. 3).

Yet as Biden failed the test, he stubbonly refused to stand down despite all the pressures from donors and Democrat big guns like Obama and Pelosi. It was not until Trump’s miraculous escape from assignation that Biden finally recognized all is lost and withdraw his renomination. Now it would be interesting to see who would be allowed to take credit in ending the Ukraine war, Trump or Kamala.

(ii) Major shift in the Financial Market: Alongside with a possible armistice for Ukraine, the powers that be in the West also changed their narrative of accepting a US recession is inevitable. The Yen Carry Trade was unwound and Tech stocks dumped. The US Exchange Stabilization Fund (‘ESF”) was visible to rapid fire brought down precious metal prices as a precautionary move for the October BRICS Summit in Kazan when Russia is expected to present plans for a Global South Dedollarization. But of course ESF would not allow US Stocks to break the bank and at the NY Close saw the Dow rebound sharply on a pretext of a softening of inflation. Performance of different asset class as follows: (Fig. 4)

JPY (+2.44%), Russian Rubble (+1.46%), Dow (+0.76%), Bitcoin (+0.71%), CNY (+0.30%), USD Index (-0.04%), EUR (-0.24%), GBP (-0.37%), Uranium (-0.48%), Gold (-0.57%), S&P 500 (-083%), AUD (-2.08%), Nasdaq (-2.56%), Oil (-2.61%), Copper (-3.02%) and Silver (-4.50%).

We have on the June 1 Blog explained the US Private Sector’s capacity to further absorb new Federal Issuance will be exhausted in July 2024 and indeed this month we are seeing the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade and correction of the Stock market. The Fed will start printing soon enough but do not expect interest rates can be lowered by too much. The Fed is trapped, with dedollarization in full swing, cutting interest rate would trigger a collapse of USD exchange value but maintaining interest rates higher for longer would mean a collapse of the Bond and Credit market.

Matthew 26:52  But Jesus said to him, "Put your sword in its place, for all who take the sword will perish by the sword.