Summer 2024: A Woman in Travail

The week ended on July 20, 2024. Interesting news items to look at this week are:

Summer 2024: A Woman in Travail: As we stepped into mid summer 2024, cracks of the Western World Order have ruptured one by one beyond their thinly plastered veneer. So many things are happening so fast that poor old ordinary citizens like yours truly are finding it hard to catch up, much less distilling all the news into actionable steps to maintain a steady hand on the rudder of my family ark. I thank God that my Christian World View has drawn attention years ago to a prophetic understanding of the times we are in right now and that is, (i) Everything that can be shaken will be shaken until what cannot be shaken remains” (Hebrews 12:27) . yet within the volatile times, (ii) there will be periods intersperse with pain and joy like the birth pangs of a pregnant woman. (John 16:21-23). Imagine yourself as a pregnant woman in her third trimester placed right in the middle of an earthquake zone and you’ll get the drift. (Fig. 1).

With the stage set behind us, let’s take at look at the actors and their performance this week.

(a) Attempted Assignation of Trump and Biden ponders a withdrawal: Consensus is  the Democrats will loose the Presidential election whether Joe Biden withdraws or otherwise. A changing of the presidential contestant with the Democrats will only serve to salvage seats due at the Congress and Senate in October. Trump has already declared his platform to focus primarily on domestic social and economic issues like border security and mass eviction of illegal immigrants. Foreign policy agenda are scant but will focus on a wind down of the Ukraine and Gaza wars. The Ukrainian War will be left to the Europeans to fend for themselves with expensive American weaponry so long as the Europeans pay. The Gaza war will likely be a long drawn out unsatisfactory North Korean style armistice with Trump to coerce all American cronies to foot the bill for reconstruction. There will not be a kinetic war with China over Taiwan but the economic, financial and tech wars will escalate.

(b) Putin and Zelensky: Putin has dug in for a long war of aggressive attrition and have articulated his uncompromising political objectives of long term security for the ethnic Russians in the former Ukrainian Oblasts, a neutral but toothless Ukraine, demilitarized and denazified. Zelensky suddenly found himself as a lost sheep without a shepherd looking down a double barrel shotgun with Stepan Bandera Neonazis that would kill him if he surrenders and capitulation by Putin if he continues.

(c) Ursula von der Leyen and Viktor Orban: The puppet Leyen celebrated her second term as European Commission President one week too early as her puppet master Biden’s future hung in balance. Hard working Viktor Orban who holds the current Presidency of the Council of Europe just might have his last laugh as the political winds for peace for Europe ascends rapidly.

(d) Modi/Lula and Xi/Putin: Modi and Lula may well proved to be the biggest stumbling bloc for Xi/Putin’s grand design for BRICS and the Global South Multi-polar Dedollarization Plan. Modi was driving hard in Moscow for a wedge between China and Russia and Lula has been too pre-occupied with factional infighting within Brazil to be of much help. It is always the little foxes that spoil the vine.

(e) Chinese Communists Party Third Plenum: No, Xi did not have a stroke but appeared steady and confirmed a continued path of China for self determination on technological power and fortifying its national security. It may be said that China is both facing a rapid cooling down of its real estate sector and shadow banking but a all firing up of the three new technological industries of EV, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltic products. The semiconductor sector was 11% of GDP in 2018 will assume 19% of GDP by 2026 according to Bloomberg Research. The New Energy sector will likewise occupy  23% of GDP in the same period. This compensated for the decline of the Real Estate sector from 24% to 16%. By comparison once the real estate bubble burst in the West, whether US or Japan, there were no turn around except by flooding the market with liquidity and dire consequences in later years.

Financial market performance for the week ended July 20, 2024: (Fig. 2)

Bitcoin (+16.28%), Dow (+0.27%), USD Index (+0.27%), Russian Rubble (+0.20%), JPY (+0.19%), EUR (-0.23%), CNY (-0.27%), Gold (-0.51%), GBP (-0.58%), AUD (-1.49%), S&P 500 (-2.52%), Oil (-3.42%), Nasdaq (-4.62%), Silver (-5.09%), Copper (-7.56%) and Uranium (-10.3%). The reaction to Trump miraculous escape from assignation and gathering momentum to take the White House presented a major shift in focus of investment capital flows. Bitcoin was bid up by 16% because Trump said he would accept political contribution in cryptocurrency. The New Energy Commodities of copper, silver and Uranium were dumped. Currency market remained stable but Trump is a proponent of a weaker USD. It is early days to react to short term emotional swings.

Romans 13:1  Let every soul be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and the authorities that exist are appointed by God. 2  Therefore whoever resists the authority resists the ordinance of God, and those who resist will bring judgment on themselves. 3  For rulers are not a terror to good works, but to evil. Do you want to be unafraid of the authority? Do what is good, and you will have praise from the same. 4  For he is God's minister to you for good. But if you do evil, be afraid; for he does not bear the sword in vain; for he is God's minister, an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil. 5  Therefore you must be subject, not only because of wrath but also for conscience' sake. 6  For because of this you also pay taxes, for they are God's ministers attending continually to this very thing. 7  Render therefore to all their due: taxes to whom taxes are due, customs to whom customs, fear to whom fear, honor to whom honor.